POWER TO THE DAQMAN STAKING PLAN: Daqman’s clever staking plan kept him in profit again yesterday, Sun Power (WON 3-1) following Victoria Falls (WON 9-4) on Monday. Stakes rise today on a big-race day but rain all round dampens enthusiasm.
ON THE OCHE FOR THE KERRY NATIONAL: It’s the Kerry National this afternoon, with Daqman looking for a winning bull’s-eye bet, going to town at around 10-1.
SHERODAN FOR SHEER PACE..
⭕ 2.45 Listowel If I started Fortune Cookies for the Jumps today, I would have some strong ammunition from this novice hurdle, with a little help from Sherodan.
The Wallpark seems sure to improve from his Killarney maiden, and Willie Mullins’ Bialystok brings Galway Hurdle form to the race.
Willie won the big novice hurdle at the meeting with Arctic Fly, with the second home, Sherodan, doing more than frank the form at Ballinrobe the last day.
Sherodan made all, clear at several stages of the race, finally finishing in a canter. It might have been a case of ‘beat nothing well’ but he’s getting 5lb from Bialystok here and will be hard to haul back to the field.
I look at it this way, his pace may be good enough; if it isn’t, whatever beats him is worth following. I also look at 1.68 Bialystok and 6.8 Sheridan!
STUMP UP AND GO TO TOWN!
⭕ 4.25 Listowel (Kerry National) STATS: The trend in the last eight seasons is for younger horses – 7 and 8 – even down to a five-year-old winner in 2022.
That youngster was a previous winner on the course, raising his game when second in the Galway Blazers for Joseph O’Brien.
Joseph now runs the seven-year-old A Wave Of The Sea, who was fourth in the Galway Plate, sixth in last year’s Kerry National, and a few pounds lower now.
The Galway Blazers winner was Toss Again, subsequently slammed 13 lengths by Salvador Ziggy at Killarney just 25 days back, but 10lb better off now.
Gordon Elliott, who saddles 38% of the field today, had winner and third in the Plate – Ash Tree Meadow and Hollow Games – split by Willie Mullins’ Authorized Art.
1: STUMPTOWN The big improvers of the race are Stealthy Tom and solo starter for Gavin Comwell, Stumptown, up two stone in five runs as a six-year-old this year.
After scoring at Sandown and Thurles, Stumptown, was held only in the final strides of the Kim Muir at the Cheltenham Festival. He had the summer off, needing his return run, as previously the case after a break.
2: AIN’T THAT A SHAME His 3m form is his best (runner-up in the Munster National; fourth in the big Christmas chase at Leopardstown) and soft ground is his forte. Goes well fresh.
3: GEVREY Fourth in the Plate at Cheltenham, second in the Irish Grand National; still only seven; still carries only 10st 9lb. Hurdles prep convincing.
4: AUTHORIZED ART came back to more like his true form at Galway, and has a previous verdict over Ash Tree Meadow. Giving that one 8lb at Galway, but now receiving weight.
5: STEALTHY TOM raced through the summer months, soaring 36lb, as winner of the Connacht National and second in the Midlands National at Kilbeggan. This is a better race.
6: CHEMICAL ENERGY ran a great second in the NH Chase (3m 6f) at Cheltenham but this is much shorter, though sure to be staying on.
7: SALVADOR ZIGGY Slammed Toss Again in a two-horse race but plenty of weight for this and winning form on good/good to yielding. Toss Again 10lb better off.
GROUNDS for concern: Willie Mullins worries about the ground for Authorised Art. Gordon Elliott wants good going for Chemical Energy.
Betdaq Betting Exchange 6.1 Ain’t That A Shame, 8 Gevrey, 10.5 Stumptown, 14 A Wave Of The Sea
MAYBE IT’S THE DAY FOR KNIGHT
⭕ 3.40 Sandown LAYS LOGIC: In the last three years, the Richard Hannon entire, Chindit, has been very hard to win with, and his form after a win is 0302. Forecast rain is against him.
Eydon, the 2,000 Guineas fourth, has clearly had problems and it is no surprise to see him drop out in face of possible deepish ground.
Another lightly-raced sort, Knight, is winner of a Group 3 on heavy (Lord Of Biscay well in rear) and has cheekpieces first time today.
Silver Sword’s lone effort on soft was unproductive; he’s a winner on firm twice. Breege has gone close in a big-field handicap on firm and a Group 3 on soft but hasn’t won since his maiden, always a bad sign.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.45 Listowel (win 30)
BET 5pts win SHERODAN
3.40 Sandown (win 20, nap)
BET 10pts win KNIGHT
4.25 Listowel (win-50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 7pts win GEVREY
BET 5pts win STUMPTOWN
BET 4pts to win 20 AIN’T THAT A SHAME
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