EVANDER LANDS KNOCK-OUT NAP IN DAQMAN TWO OUT OF THREE: Daqman scored two out of three yesterday, opening with a punchy nap, Evander (WON 13-8), and winning on points on the day (15 points overall, in fact) through another strike at Kempton last night.
WON 13-8 EVANDER (nap)
WON 7-4 PINNATA
YOU MUST DIG DEEPER TO FIND WINNERS: THAT’S ON THE LEVEL: What’s your level-stakes profit? You’ve heard that fallacious question many times. It’s the cry of the old-fashioned punter. ‘I would say that he needs to dig deeper to give himself a chance of winning,’ says Daqman, who explains the position today and tomorrow, and what’s needed to escape it.
LEVEL-STAKES PROFIT (1): HE’S DONE IT!
Daqman’s made a level-stakes profit on all selections! I would soon get shot down if I made such a claim. So I’ll rephrase that and amend it to: Daqman’s made a level-stakes profit on all special bets named as such in his column.
You can’t win ‘em all, so you have to bet in the areas where you win enough to make it worthwhile.
Daqman has currently made 37 points to single-unit level stakes (1pt win) on all bets selected for naps, horses to follow, value bets, and bets against Pricewise. Those betting areas are:
DAQMAN ACCOUNTS: NH UPDATE
📈 Daqman 29, Pricewise 13 (+253.40 to -151.00) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Bull’s-eye bets: 34% (+187.00 from 10-29) staked to win 50
📈 Bulls-eye naps 2020: 0% (-12.00 from 0-1) (2019: 47% 8-17 +249)
📈 All Daily Naps 43% (+24.09 from 36-83) 10pt stakes at SP
📈 Supernaps 52% (+40.69 from 11-21) 20pt stakes at SP
📈 Fortune Cookies 50% (+31.88 from 4-8) 20pt stakes at SP
LEVEL-STAKES PROFIT (2): WHY OH WHY?
Spot the difference? Yes, 500 points difference. By working those selected bets, using target returns to specific staking plans, we have an overall profit to recommended stakes of 537 points, excluding annually-assessed bull’s-eye naps. Conclusions:
It’s not what you bet but how you back it.
Level stakes may be a guide to the wary but have little or nothing to do with actual betting.
In fact, if you think about it, betting with the same stakes every time would be crazy. Are you going to have just a point win at 8-13 and waste it’s apparent near-certainty? No way.
Are you going to have just a point win at 20-1 when you’ve worked so hard to find a big strike? Surely, you’re not backing the 8-13 short-shot and the 20-1 long-shot with the same stake?
So what DO you do? The answer is in betting for value. You have the amazing open market of the BETDAQ exchange where your opinion can be translated into a real chance of being a genuine player.
I’ll tell you the winningmost ways tomorrow.
SOUTHWELL LION TO ROAR AGAIN
3.00 Southwell Lion Tower can defy a 7lb penalty for his course and distance success last month. He stayed on strongly that day on just his second career start and there should be plenty more left in the locker.
It was a big step up from his debut at Wolverhampton and with similar improvement he should prove hard to beat in this company – plus we have the major positive of knowing he handles the unique Southwell surface.
Broken Rifle is becoming more of a broken record with form figures of 64423- but has some good enough form amongst those efforts. He’s back after a break and unproven on this surface so at around 4.0 on BETDAQ is quite a risky proposition.
A bigger danger may come from Viva Voce who shaped well on his debut at Wolverhampton and should improve for the step up in trip and the David Barron stable have a good record here.
3.15 Ludlow A good day yesterday was let down by one mistake – opposing a Paul Nicholls trained runner.
I won’t make the same mistake here as his Dr Sanderson looks a spot of value in this decent class 3 handicap chase.
The six-year-old, ridden by Barry Geraghty, was three times a winner over hurdles but hasn’t progressed so far in two starts over fences.
There was a little more promise at Taunton last time out and with the stable in such good form he could be interesting here now he is dropping in the weights.
He’s disputing things at the top of the market with Molineaux who is up 4lb for winning what looked a weaker event last time out where just a length separated the first three home.
Night Of Sin was a good second over course and distance last time but he can often clout a few on the way round.
7.10 Wolverhampton Reeves bids for a fifth straight win to remain unbeaten on the all-weather which would be remarkable and he just keeps doing enough to keep the handicapper from getting too excited.
He’s up a further 2lb for making all at Lingfield last time out and the official margin of a short head masks the fact that it was a canny ride with a little left up Sean Davis’s sleeve. If you can ever get a comfortable short head winner this was it and Davis rides again.
Also, three of his recent wins have come at class two level so I see no reason why he can’t go in again today – dropped in grade!
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 10 points)
BET 7.6pts win (nap) LION TOWER (3.00 Southwell)
BET 2.5pts win DR SANDERSON (3.15 Ludlow)
BET 4.4pts win REEVES (7.10 Wolverhampton)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
