DERBY COUNTDOWN: ABC GUIDE TO THE GREAT AND GOOD: Here’s the Derby field, as seen by the stats and facts of breeding and form. It’s Daqman’s famous ABC Guide to the world’s leading Classic race on Saturday.
ARISE, SIR KNIGHT OF CAMELOT..
ABC KEY: 4.30 Derby Stakes, Epsom, Saturday
A Winner of a Group race
B Rated 113 plus (official or collateral)
C Trained Aidan O’Brien (6), John Gosden (2), Charlie Appleby (1)
D Raced no more than five times
E Ran in last 35 days
ABCDE Sir Dragonet
Big, galloping Camelot colt, dam half-sister to Oaks winner, related to Galileo and Sea The Stars. Eight lengths winner of Chester Vase on only second start. Supplemented.
ABCE Broome
Sleepy, lazy sort, but won two trials this Spring, the Ballysax and Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial, both at Leopardstown, both with ease in the ground
ABCE Anthony Van Dyck
Galileo colt, smooth winner of Lingfield Derby trial. Beat nothing well but impressive attitude, travelling in excellent style.
ABCE Line Of Duty
Galileo colt, out of filly first past the post in 1,000 Guineas (herself out of a staying mare), and Derby trip much needed. Responded to hard driving as two-year-old globetrotter, winning at Goodwood, Chantilly and Churchill Downs. Disappointed on Dante reappearance.
ABDE Mahdmoon
Son of Dawn Approach out of a Haafhd mare, with no evidence in the pedigree that the Derby trip will suit. But beat Broome over a mile as a two-year-old and ran on (second in group) when fourth in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas.
ABDE Telecaster
New Approach colt out of Oaks placed dam. Like Sir Dragonet, has come late to the scene, not race until March this year. Supplemented after beating Irish 2,000 runner-up, Too Darn Hot, in the Dante, held on well.
ACDE Japan
Galileo colt, dam a half-sister to an Arc winner. Beresford winner in the autumn and kept on fourth behind Telecaster in the Dante.
AD Bangkok
Progressive, stamina in the pedigree. Close up to decent juveniles and 2-2 this Spring, beating Telecaster to win his maiden, then decisive winner of Group 3 at Sandown.
CDE Circus Maximus
Galileo colt, third in a Group 3 at Newmarket in October behind subsequent very smart French Guineas winner, Persian King, and English 2,000 winner, Magna Grecia. Won the Dee Stakes on reappearance but had to be niggled into it.
CDE Humanitarian
John Gosden can only muster this seeming lesser light, rated 95 but always heavily backed, 2-2 in novice events and dam’s side suggests he will relish the step up in trip.
CE Norway
Galileo full brother to 2013 Derby winner Ruler Of The World. Nothing spectacular so far but, in first-time cheekpieces, when – not clear run two out – eight lengths runner-up to Sir Dragonet in the Chester Vase.
CE Sovereign
Galileo brother to strong stayers. Fourth to Japan in the Beresford in September, and Broome has twice swept away from him this term, in the Ballysax (second) and the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial (third). This step up in trip badly needed.
DE Hiroshima
Nathaniel colt, dam half-sister to a champion sprinter. Always behind in the Lingfield Derby Trial.
DE Surfman
Big raw Kingman but got off the mark as a juvenile, and showed impressive galloping action on reappearance at Newcastle, striding 14 lengths clear, but the second had been 24 lengths off Bangkok. Kept on late behind Telecaster, in front of Japan, when third in the Dante, and marked down in my Fortune Cookies as a St Leger type.
TOM TOM TO BEVERLEY
1.30 Newton Abbot An early start at Newton Abbot today which means the 1.30 is actually race four !
The market in this is definitely based around the respective trainers, rather than the horse form as I thought Good Time Ahead (Suzi Best) achieved more than Redemptorist (Olly Murphy) did on their jumping debuts.
A five-time winner of the flat when trained by Philip Kirby, Good Time Ahead ran a sound race on jumps debut for his new stable at Plumpton when chasing home Zamperini who won well.
That reads a little better to me than Redemptorist’s debut third (of five finishers) at Fontwell where he was never on terms with the leaders and didn’t jump well.
At the prices, there’s only one way to play this and that’s a win on Good Time Ahead.
3.25 Hamilton There’s some juice in the ground at Hamilton where it is now good to soft and there are three early non runners in this fillies handicap.
It might now leave the door open for the Richard Fahey trained Ivory Charm who receives weight from the rest of the field.
She was staying on well in the closing stages at Redcar earlier in the month to finish second and should be suited by this tougher course.
At the time of writing, Lucky Violet is still an intended runner having finished a neck second at Ayr last night. Less than 24 hours later and on much different ground it will surely be a tall ask to expect her to go and win this.
5.10 Beverley Thomas Cubitt is fitted with a visor for the first time which might well be enough to eke out sufficient improvement in this grade.
The Michael Bell trained runner was only pipped a head on his handicap debut at Redcar by Agravain and over the shorter trip and revised terms I think that form will be turned around.
The Mark Johnston trained Stone Cougar hasn’t shown too much in three starts but it would come as no surprise to see her run better in handicap company off a starting mark of 57.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 6.7pts win GOOD TIME AHEAD (1.30 Newton Abbot)
BET 8.7pts win IVORY CHARM (3.25 Hamilton)
BET 15.8pts win (nap) THOMAS CUBITT (5.10 Beverley)
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