ABC GUIDE TO A FIVE-TIMER? Daqman’s famous big-race ABC of stats and facts has already landed two Derbys and a Guineas, and first, second and fourth from his top four for the Northumberland Plate. Now here’s his guide to Saturday’s Eclipse Stakes at Sandown.
12.5 OUTSIDER AT WORCESTER: Daqman prefers the better class of horse, and today picks out the quality races for bets at Fairyhouse, Kempton, Perth and Worcester. His nap is at Perth, his best outsider, a 12.5 BETDAQ offer, at Worcester.
THE FUGUE MUST IMPROVE AGAIN
ECLIPSE ABC Key
A Group-1 winner (10 out of 10)
B Won 10-12 furlongs (8 out of 10)
C Rated 122-126 (6 out of 10)
D Won or placed Royal Ascot (6 from 10)
E Aged 3, 4, 5 (10 out of 10)
ABCDE The Fugue
Despite all the plaudits for her Royal Ascot win in record time, the handicapper insists that The Fugue improved only 16oz to do that job: it was a reversal of the Breeders’ Cup one-two (Magician 1, The Fugue 2) at a slight difference in weights which has them both now on 124.
In fact, despite 10 races and three Group-1 successes since, The Fugue is only 7lb higher than the mark which resulted from her winning the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood in August, 2012.
And one of her defeats was last of seven in this Eclipse Stakes to Al Kazeem a year ago, not giving her true running that day but in keeping with the poor record of fillies and mares in this race.
The headline above my tips the last time I remember a mare winning this was ’Pebble Dash’. In fact, Kooyonga (1992) has won it for Ireland since, but I was seconded to the financial desk at that time.
ABE Trading Leather
His right of passage to this Eclipse was earned in the 2013 Irish Derby (beat the St Leger third, Galileo Rock) after his five-lengths defeat by Magician in the Irish 2,000 Guineas.
He has just about held his rating from mid-season, second in the King George, second in the International at York. But he will be judged for Saturday’s race on his third to The Fugue and Al Kazeem in the Irish Champion Stakes last September.
ADE Night Of Thunder
Only once in eight years has a three-year-old beaten his elders, and he – Sea The Stars – was exceptional that day, defeating subsequent Sussex Stakes and International winner, Rip Van Winkle, and King George and Breeders Cup Turf hero, Conduit.
But Night Of Thunder won an exceptional 2,000 Guineas in May from the subsequent Irish 2,000 winner, Kingman, and the dual Derby star, Australia. Can he look that good over an extra quarter of a mile?
ADE Verrazano
The Kentucky Derby was his sole defeat in his first eight races of 2013, including two Grade-1 stakes races on dirt (both 9f) but against the really top class in the Breeders Cup he caved in easily.
Showing himself to the British and Irish audience for the first time under Aidan O’Brien, he seemingly took well to turf in the Lockinge and in running Toronado to threeparts of a length in the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot.
The handicapper has upped him to 120 from those two results but expect further improvement from this big horse, stepped up to 1m 2f on Saturday, with just that niggling doubt from the Breeders Cup that he might be soft in a battle.
AE Kingston Hill
As Racing Post Trophy winner, he was always among the front rank in the Epsom Derby market but opinion was divided on his reappearance eighth in the 2,000 Guineas.
Did he need further now or was the firm ground against him at Newmarket? Subsequent events at Epsom and The Curragh suggest both.
At Epsom, he was the only colt to give Australia a race in the Derby, and some say he might have won on an easier surface. As for The Curragh, and his chance of revenge in the Irish Derby, it was a non-event for him, pulled out because of the firm surface.
Saturday’s Sandown ground is forecast as good (still good to soft in places today) but with three sunny days before rain returns at the weekend.
Kingston Hill’s alternative is the Grand Prix de Paris on Sunday week, July 13. It’s painful backing a ‘nonner,’ but connections are not messing you about: late withdrawals from a Group 1 cost around £12,000.
AE War Command
It is never wise to write off a Ballydoyle also-ran. This imposing individual, who won the Coventry, the Curragh Futurity and the Dewhurst as a juvenile, did not have his ideal conditions – genuinely quick ground – when ninth to Night Of Thunder in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas.
He was much closer to that rival, wearing cheekpieces, and finishing well in the St James’s Palace Stakes, won by the ace miler of his generation Kingman, at Royal Ascot.
War Command could enjoy Saturday’s extra quarter-mile, though I have always seen this son of the American stallion War Front as Breeders’ Cup material (Declaration Of War was third in the Classic at Santa Anita).
BDE Hillstar
Soft-ground was against him in the Ormonde at Chester, and he was hampered in his run when second to stablemate Telescope on top of the ground in the Hardwicke.
Trainer Sir Michael Stoute said that day that there was very little between Telescope and Hillstar at home and this King Edward V11 winner, third in last year’s King George, is still a talented individual to be feared. But he may wait for the Newmarket July meeting next week.
BE Mukhadram
Has done well over this course and distance, winner of the Brigadier Gerard Stakes on soft before his third in last year’s Eclipse on firm. Officially 5lb off The Fugue and ran to that, when fourth behind her at Royal Ascot.
B Zambucca
Some 17 lengths behind The Fugue at 100-1 at Royal Ascot, and will be lucky to get that close again. Needs special permission to start tomorrow.
E Somewhat
Also somewhat outclassed but can now claim, from the Dee Stakes in May, to have got within a couple of lengths of the Irish Derby runner-up. Pacemaker for True Story.
E True Story
The enigma of the race, perhaps of the season so far, likely to wear visor or blinkers. Highly touted for the Epsom Derby after a runaway win in the Feilden Stakes but seemed to disappoint in the Dante, only third to The Great Gatsby.
Hopes were revived before the Epsom Classic after ‘Gatsby’ won the French Derby, only for True Story to disappoint again, albeit from the ‘coffin box’ stall one and clearly not acting on the Derby course. An awful lot to prove now but cannot be discounted, and regarded as ‘still a big baby’ by jockey Kieren Fallon.
– Tullius
Won the Sandown Mile (soft), then second in the Lockinge, but has only his second start over 10f in three years in the hope of finding some cut in the ground that would inhibit some of his rivals here. Rain is forecast for the weekend, but quite when they didn’t tell us!
IRISH RAIDER ‘WINGS’ IS THE NAP
3.50 Worcester I’ve had just about enough of fillies and mares, with the possible exception of The Fugue (we’ll see on the day).
Be My Gal and James Doyle contrived to lose me a Sunday feature in Paris; then, yesterday, Red Passiflora rolled about on the Windsor camber and threw my nap in the has-bin.
A hood has wrought three wins and 17lb improvement from August Hill but today’s step up in trip could bring out even more: this daughter of Presenting is a latent stayer if her breeding is anything to go by.
Much of the form of the opposition is on soft ground and we have no way of telling what will happen on firm, except with Massannie, who could bounce back to the form of his hat-trick in the summer of last year: 12.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
4.10 Perth (Stirling Cup) Not a firm-ground winner in the entire field! In fact, only Dark Glacier, Hero de Villeneuve and Call Box (all placed) have even completed on it.
But, despite top weight, Bless The Wings is the one best treated by the handicapper; comes from last year’s winning Irish yard and this Graded performer is dropped to class 3 level for the first time since his novice days in 2011.
7.00 Fairyhouse (Brownstown Stakes) This is intriguing, with the Ballydoyle factor likely to keep Sparrow high in the pecking-order of the BETDAQ-market (cheep joke).
But be warned that, in fact, the Ballydoyle factor here is Factor 50: it’s a blocker! Aidan has tried and failed with Heart Shaped (2-1 favourite, 2009) and After (11-10 favourite, 2012) among others. Heart-Shaped and After, both, never ran another decent race, which suggests that they were here with dwindling hope and not much prospect.
Though Sparrow has a turnaround in the weights on her third to Majestic Queen in the Ballyogan, she didn’t look much like catching Tracey Collins’ filly.
Wannabe Better quickened well on the firm ground at Leopardstown on the last day and is officially top-rated, 3lb up on Majestic Queen.
8.20 Kempton Presto Volante beat last year’s winner of this (Dark Ranger) when he won over course and distance in April. His stable is in good form again now, but the five-year-old has an old rival here in Story Writer: the score between them is 1-1 at Goodwood.
Poyle Thomas has won in this class on turf and scored on the Kempton Polytrack last season. He has put back-to-back wins together before now and is very lightly raced (8 runs, four wins) for his age.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 6pts win AUGUST HILL and 1.8pts win and place MASSANNIE (3.50 Worcester)
BET 6.6pts win (nap) BLESS THE WINGS (4.10 Perth)
BET 6pts win on each MAJESTIC QUEEN and WANNABE BETTER (7.00 Fairyhouse)
BET 8.5pts win POYLE THOMAS (8.20 Kempton)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£25 NO LOSE FREE BET
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
