WAIT FOR IT! AN 8-1 WINNER: Daqman, who landed two winners on Monday, continued the week in profit with two more yesterday, but at bigger prices, one of them W Six Times (WON 8-1) with form figures /003-P0.
FOUR HITS IN TWO DAYS: The explanation of its name in yesterday’s column should now read: ‘Waited with, will win when wanted by Daqman!’ This week so far:
WON 15-8 Gonalston Cloud (Monday)
WON 9-4 Billy No Name (Monday)
WON 8-1 W Six Times (Tuesday)
WON 7-2 Philba (Tuesday)
100.0 AMONG GRAND NATIONAL WEIGHTS PICK: It’s a grand race for the National this year, packed with quality, says Daqman, who finds some early outsiders on BETDAQ with class form at the weights: 100.0, 34.0 and 28.0.
CLOUDS CAUSES A NATIONAL OF QUALITY
I know the winner but will he get in! After seeing the weights for the Aintree Grand National, I want to stand by my original choice, Cause Of Causes but, since he has only 10st 1lb, it’s a sweet-and-sour situation.
He has a grand chance if he can reproduce his (146-rated) NH Chase win over 4m at Cheltenham last year, when I was on at 43.0 on BETDAQ.
But his 141 rating means that he is number 72 on the card and needs nearly half of those above him to drop out.
Encouragement comes from the stats. If you check out the results of the last five seasons, you’ll find that nine of the 20 places (first four) were filled by horses rated 140-145. Good news.
Discouragement comes from the stats. In the five years, four of the five winners were rated 150-160. Not such good news, particularly if Many Clouds tries to repeat his success of last season.
His running off 165 (top weight with 11st 10lb) creates a quality race, where Graded horses which would normally expect to hump a big burden will be running lower down the handicap.
For example, within that winningmost parameter of 150-160, you have the recent Denman Chase winner (Grade 2) Houblon des Obeaux, and the 2013 Hennessy Gold Cup scorer (Grade 3), Triolo d’Alene.
Right on the edge of that winning parameter is the 151-rated PP Gold Cup (Grade 3) runner-up Buywise, afterwards third in the Great Yorkshire.
Roi Du Mee, like Cause of Causes trained Gordon Elliott, will race off 154 after running 19 Graded races. He will be saddled off 10st 13lb, the first time he has carried less than 11st since April 2012.
For quality contenders used to big weights in conditions races their high rating remains the same but they get less weight to carry because it’s a handicap and there’s ‘a monster’ at the top.
Cause Of Causes looks well treated on last year’s race: Many Clouds is 5lb higher; Saint Are (2nd) and Alvarado (4th) 3lb higher; Royale Knight (6th) 2lb higher; but Shutthefrontdoor (5th) a pound lower and Cause Of Causes (8th) 2lb lower. Soll (9th) is hardest hit, 13lb higher.
The Druids Nephew, from the burgeoning Bath stable of Neil Mulhoilland, might have won last year but for tipping up when in a promising position.
Nigel Twiston-Davies is an old hand at winning this and 100.0 offered Double Ross has jumped round in the Topham and the Grand Sefton.
Jonjo O’Neill has had a modest season by his standards but could be gearing up for the Cheltenham handicaps and the Aintree marathon with Holywell and Shutthefrontdoor.
But my pair are Cause Of Causes (already taken at 37.0 now 33.0) and Triolo d’Alene, one-time Hennessy winner, brought back to his best recently after wind operations, 28.0 on the exchange but as low as 16-1 with one bookmaker.
MASH THE LAYERS WITH 19.0 HOULIHAN
2.15 Musselburgh Punters are willing to believe that David Pipe isn’t sending one horse – Impulsive American – from Devon to Edinburgh just for the 800-mile round trip.
But they’ve ignored Tim Vaughan’s despatching the unexposed Officer Houlihan (was she ever!) all the way from Glamorgan, not noticing either the step up in trip which will suit a Kayf Tara: 19.0 on BETDAQ this morning. I’ll also have a Ladbrokes reverse forecast.
3.25 Musselburgh It doesn’t always pay to follow up on success in a conditionals race but No Ceiling, another traveller today, was convincing under Toby Wheeler at Doncaster.
And, when you look at the opposition, it’s easy to see why he’s a short price. One for the Daq Multiples
JIM’S WISH FOR FIVE WINS OUT OF SIX
2.25 Towcester I’m not going to mention Annie Power today (oops) – I’ll leave her to my stablemate, Shamrock – though I’m on the Mares Hurdle gamble against her, Vroum Vroum Mag, last seen down to 3.9 on BETDAQ.
One way or another it will go to the Irish, and so might this Towcester handicap, for which Jim Dreaper sends over another ‘hidden horse,’ Camillas Wish. Jim is in terrific form with figures of 11113.
In similar vein to yesterday’s W Six Times, Camillas Wish returns to the scene of success or, in her case, near success: she was beaten a head on this course in May.
Clearly difficult to win with and seems simply hope not planning that she is back (at 9.8 on BETDAQ) for the hill climb at Towcester. But it’s certainly a track that suits some and not others.
BREDON-BUTTER BETDAQ BET AT THE TRIP
4.10 Towcester You could also attach the ‘hidden horse’ epithet to Bredon Hill Lad (5.5 offers), who is now rated below his winning mark, and returns to the right trip.
The Lad has been running at near enough 3m but, if you strip down his figures to form at 20-21f, close on the distance of today’s race, they become 31111 since November, 2013.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 1pt win and place OFFICER HOULIHAN (2.15 Musselburgh)
BET 3pts win and place CAMILLAS WISH (2.25 Towcester)
BET 6pts win (nap) BREDON HILL LAD (4.10 Towcester)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles and 1pt win treble Impulsive American (2.15 Musselburgh), No Ceiling (3.25 Musselburgh) and Bredon Hill Lad (4.10 Towcester)
ANTE-POST: BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 1.8pts win and place TRIOLO D’ALENE; already TON-UP BET (to win 100) 3pts win CAUSE OF CAUSES (Grand National, Liverpool, April)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
