GAME SHOW FROM THE 100-30 NAP: Daqman ‘could see Mark Johnston’s filly taking an unassailable lead’ at Carlisle yesterday: Showstoppa (WON 100-30) did just that but, at the business end, had to fight gamely to maintain the advantage and land his nap.
TWO BEST BETS UP IN THREE DAYS: It followed Monday’s win-and-place successes (two at 14-1) and Sunday’s nap, Gothic (WON 11-4). Today he investigates four meetings, with the nap at Salisbury and some good offers on BETDAQ selected at Beverley and Kempton.
TERCEL CAN SWOOP IN STOUTE BENEFIT
2.20 Salisbury Team Hannon is 14011001 in this since 2008, though Lysander The Greek has four times the experience of their runner, Desert Force. Watch the market.
It’s like that all day at Salisbury with some tricky tests of developing horses. Only five runners all day are over the age of four! It makes it difficult to settle on a nap but Sir Michael Stoute has done me a good turn with seven winning best bets this season, so I will hope to fly with Tercel in the Pembroke Cup.
2.50 Salisbury The Hannons also won the introductory race for this nursery last season but there are five previous winners on today’s card, including their own When Will It End.
Well, it might end with Darshini, the one with a Group-race entry – the Royal Lodge late next month – as he should be suited by the step up to a mile, having won gamely up the hill over 7f at Sandown.
In fact, Grigolo also threatens When Will It End, despite a change in the weights since Goodwood, when Grigolo beat him (albeit the Hannon horse was hampered at one stage).
3.25 Salisbury (Pembroke Cup) This has been a Sir Michael Stoute benefit, as and when he’s wanted, every one a winner, with returns of 111 – three from three – since 2009.
Tercel (nap) could be another Stoute hawk ready to swoop and tear apart this field, in which the Hannons have a Potentate danger if the ground stays firm. He took a firm hold at Chepstow and Newmarket but settled in last time and could have more improvement in him.
3.55 Salisbury (Upavon Fillies’ Stakes) This is a cash-cow Listed for three-year-olds (seven-year returns: 1112121) seeking some black type or confirming their standing for the Paddocks.
Only one winner has carried more than 9st in the decade but Tearless in the top half of the card is very lightly raced, and has some top entries, including the Yorkshire Oaks next week, which would be stepping up a quarter of a mile.
Albasharah has already been placed in the 2013 Lancashire Oaks and Ribbons got her black type in a Listed at Kempton in the Spring. So what of the Classic generation?
Kleo and My Spirit could both improve out of handicaps, both with the right trainers to do so. Lustrous could still be ahead of them, dropped from Group 1.
But her performance in the Irish Oaks – and the Nassau since – when eight lengths behind Bracelet, suggest that this is not the same filly we saw run Bracelet to half a length in the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot.
Hannon fans will point out that the last four winners of this were, like Lustrous, all royal-meeting failures. This also brings in Crowley’s Law, drawn in the car park in the Sandringham at Ascot when a short price behind a subsequent Goodwood Group-3 placed.
The market usually gets this right but had four at the front within a 2.3 parameter this morning, so seemingly tough for punters. But only one of them was a three-year-old: Group-1 entered My Spirit (6.6 on BETDAQ this morning).
Like My Spirit, Kleo (8.8) had not raced before this year and ‘could be anything’. It’s a fascinating contest but it remains to be seen whether punters can continue to claim it as their own, with a late market call.
BEVERLEY The 5f here is hard to get and the auction race (3.00) has never been won with a weight of more than 8st 13lb. Ten horses have tried and failed in the last six seasons.
And only once, on firm ground, has one of those six races gone to a horse drawn more than four off the highest stall.
It all adds up to a vote of confidence in Lady Cecil’s decision to send Rock Follies (gate 9) up from Newmarket. Seems sure to be staying on well.
Ypres (3.35) would be a topical winner of the all-aged sprint but has to dig himself out of stall 4. Mey Blossom (in 9) has won three times at Beverley but all on the firm.
Tim Easterby has had 33 turf winners this year and Hazelrigg (from 8) is quite capable of scoring, even though now nine years old, as five times a winner from July to September with cut in the ground: 12.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
CASTLE YOUR YARMOUTH GAMBIT TONIGHT
YARMOUTH: Soft ground, so it will come as no surprise to see small fields become even smaller. Keep an eye out for non-runners throughout the day.
Usually, experience counts for a lot with two-year-olds, especially on testing ground, but in the opening maiden two of the six runners are debutants and they were disputing favoritism in the BETDAQ market early mouse.
That’s confirmation that the ones with form have not shown very much. The newcomers are Bartholomew Fair (Cumani) and Johnny Barnes (Gosden).
Johnny Barnes runs here in preference to an entry at Newbury later in the week and can start repaying some of his €310,000 price tag, though it isn’t a betting race for me.
I’d be guessing about him. I’d be guessing about the Cumani newcomer not being good enough himself. And I’d be guessing if any of the four with experience were not going to show substantial improvement. In short, I’d be guessing.
The two-miler at 6.10 will be even more of a marathon in the prevailing ground. Take out outsider Passion Play and there is little to choose in the market between the other four runners.
There seems to be a fair amount of ‘experimentation’ going on with Solaras Exhibition who, in his last three starts, has finished 5th of 10 in a handicap hurdle at Musselburgh, last of five in a novice chase at Bangor and then last time was a well beaten 4th of 5 on the Flat at Ffos Las. This looks a more sensible but others are preferred.
The bet might be Rosslyn Castle who should relish the ground and the trip. He is another that his being stepped up in distance, having found trouble in running over 1m 4f at Lingfield last time out. The switch back to the Flat on a mark 21lb lower than his peak could prove a wise move for trainer Phil McBride.
KEMPTON: A tough card for punters. In the mile handicap at 7.20, I want to be against top weight Dream Ruler. The handicapper often is overly harsh on debutant winners at the risk of having egg on his face and this looks a prime example.
Dream Ruler has been given a mark of 70 after a debut win in March where he scrambled home by a neck. The fact he hasn’t run since then is another concern.
The bet is definitely Windy Citi who conversely looks a long way AHEAD of the handicapper. It’s rare to see these kinds of comments in the race report on any event, let alone a handicap: “sauntered clear final 2f, very easily”. The 6lb penalty is unlikely to halt his progress.
Sir Michael Stoute’s Sandy Cay shaped well on her Newmarket debut and, with further improvement virtually guaranteed, looks the pick of those with experience in the maiden fillies race at 7.50.
But there’s a trio of particularly interesting newcomers which curbs my enthusiasm of taking around 2.2 about the market leader.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 12pts win (nap) TERCEL (3.25 Salisbury)
BET 1.7pts win HAZELRIGG (3.35 Beverley)
BET 3.5pts win MY SPIRIT and 2.5pts win KLEO (3.55 Salisbury)
BET 10pts win ROSSLYN CASTLE (6.10 Yarmouth)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 4 x 1pt win trebles Desert Force (2.20 Salisbury), Darshini (2.50 Salisbury), Rock Follies (3.00 Beverley) and Windi City (7.20 Kempton).
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