TWO WINNERS A DAY FOUR DAYS RUNNING: Daqman duly obtained two more winners yesterday: Relight My Fire (WON 9-4) and Pomology (WON 11-8). But, for once, his staking plan let him down and he lost some of the 52 points profit of the three previous days.
Who’s got just one two-year-old winner and who’s got 61? That’s the world of difference between top trainers, Richard Hannon and Sir Michael Stoute, both set to score in that age group today, one of them farming juveniles the other Mr Patience (and likely to have a lot of three-year-old maidens next year!).
Whose side do you want to be on? Do you want to be with Hannon, Richard Fahey or Mark Johnston, who have each saddled more than 700 runners all told in the 2012-13 season.
Their scattergun approach has pinged a total of 340 winners but for a low strike-rate, down in the doldrums to 13% in Fahey’s case. According to my maths that means follow him blind and you get only 13 bets up in every 100… that’s 87 losers!
Or do you want to be with Stoute, William Haggas and John Gosden, who have sent out fewer than 250 runners each but with up to a 27% strike-rate?
The answer is that, generally speaking, you want to be with the better strikers but, if it’s two-year-old winners you’re after, you must side with the two-year-old specialist.
And you should seek out the specialist in other specific areas: nurseries, handicaps, sprints. Clive Cox and Robert Cowell are high on my lists.
If you are creating your own ratings – maybe even building algorithms – trainer ability and style should be one of the strands from which you try to weave a composite answer to the puzzle of every race.
An ordinary punter, with little time to spare, can still keep tables of who does best in each separate category, tables you don’t find in newspaper stats.
Observe seasonal trends: some trainers do better at certain times of the year. For example, we are just now coming up to Mark Johnston’s best time: Goodwood is his favourite meeting. And to be fair to Johnston, he is top of the overall list of trainers for hitting the target.
The sort of thing you need here is to compare stables by the number of wins from their horses that start as favourite. Or, for a rudimentary guide, check how many seconds a trainer has.
You’ll find that most yards have a similar number of wins and seconds. In 2012, Gosden had 77 winners, 73 seconds; Fahey 120-120, Saeed Bin Suroor 47-45, Andrew Balding 67-67 and so on.
But leading trainer financially, Aiden O’Brien, in England, had 13 winners but only 7 seconds; Mark Johnston 137-97, Roger Charlton 32-24 and Sir Michael Stoute 50-41.
Missing strike badly, with more seconds than winners, were Tim Easterby 77-89, Mick Channon 90-95 and Ralph Beckett 38-46.
On this basis the current season hot strikers are Hannon 133-102, David Evans 89-66, Stoute 48-35, Charlton 21-9, Saeed Bin Suroor 50-33, Beckett 41-32 and Roger Varian 44-36. Aidan O’Brien is 9-5.
Those missing strike badly are the Burke stable 28-45, Brian Ellison 33-43, Michael Bell 28-38, Channon 41-57, Tim Easterby 40-45, Charles Hills 48-56, Andrew Balding 55-57.
But you could argue that Aidan O’Brien, Lady Cecil and Roger Charlton are the three trainers you can be most confident of. They alone have near enough the same number of winners as places (second and third added together). Their accuracy is very high.
DAQMAN’S BETS: Bet to win 20 points on each horse, except Daq Multiples, stakes savers and the lay.
LAY 10pts BENEFIT OF YOUTH (2.20 Uttoxeter)
BET 2.8pts win RAIN MAC (3.30 Lingfield)
BET 3.3pts win SHARAARAH and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) LEXINGTON PLACE (4.10 Catterick)
BET 2.8pts win SAGA DE TERCEY (7.55 Worcester) and 2.8pts win (stakes saver) HIGH VILLE (4.20 Uttoxeter)
DAQ MULTIPLES; BET 10pts win ALONG AGAIN (4.00 Lingfield) if lose 10pts win MADAME VESTRIS (8.50 Sandown) and 3pts win double the two.
BET 8.6pts win (nap) THE MAD ROBERTSON (4.50 Uttoxeter)
BET 5.5pts win (Special Bet) JUVENAL (7.40 Sandown)
BET 5.5pts win MIGHTY YAR (8.15 Sandown)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also
log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
