HAYLEY – AND DAQMAN – MAKE IT EASY: Daqman’s unique staking plan more than saved the day yesterday when his third bet of a trio gave him a slender profit. Tradesman (WON 9-4) soon went clear at Chelmsford last night and was eased down at the finish by Hayley Turner.
BUT BEWARE WEEKEND GAME-CHANGER: Daqman’s Cup survey, How Gold Stars Are Fallen, is a Lays Logic warning for punters. With Fastorslow, Galopin des Champs and Bravemansgame taking the stage at Haydock and Punchestown, the weekend is sure to be a game-changer.
HOW GOLD STARS ARE FALLEN
🤔 LAYS LOGIC: I’m not galopin’ for a bet on the Gold Cup favourite: he is a ridiculous price at 2-1 for Cheltenham next March.
I won’t even back Galopin Des Champs to win on his seasonal debut in the John Durkan on Sunday, though he won it last year on the way to the festival gold. He’s already been beaten in the Punchestown Gold Cup.
My records show that only one horse, Al Boum Photo (2019-20), has done the Cheltenham gold double back to back in the 19 renewals since Best Mate
In fact, nine other than Al Boum Photo in the 11 years since 2012 failed to make their mark again: four had limited success outside Cheltenham; five of them never even won another race!
The form figures for the last 10 Gold Cup winners when running in the race again is 0PP441230P, up to and including A Plus Tard, who pulled up going for the double last March. Here’s their full subsequent form:
Synchronised (2012) Form after the Gold Cup: F (fell in the Grand National).
Bobs Worth (2013) Form after 0100P01003; won only one more chase (the Lexus at Leopardstown) and one hurdle; 5th and PU in subsequent Gold Cups.
Lord Windermere (2014) Form after 303PP2000FU0; never the same again; PU 2015 Gold Cup.
Coneygree (2015) Form after 123PP3UP; won a three-horse chase, ironically called the Future Stars Chase, would you believe!
Don Cossack (2016) Not race again after.
Sizing John (2017) Form after 110F; won the Punchestown Gold Cup and the John Durkan, before form fell away.
Native River (2018) Form after 2341131432P; King George third and Gold Cup fourth twice afterwards but won three Group-2 events in small fields.
Al Boum Photo (2019-20) The exception that proves the rule in that he won two Gold Cups but in the following years was third and then sixth.
Minella Indo (2021): Form after 3PP22P. Second in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
A Plus Tard (2022): Three runs since PPU, including pulled up in the Gold Cup last year.
Galopin Des Champs (2023): One run since: 2nd. I won’t add last year’s Cheltenham ‘gold’ to my ‘fallen heroes’ list unless he fails again on Sunday. That would be his second defeat since Cheltenham, having run second at 4-11 fav in the Punchestown Gold Cup in April.
The winner, Fastorslow, takes him on again, and the third that day, Bravemansgame, is favourite for the Lancashire Chase at Haydock on Saturday. It’s a game-changer weekend.
CHERIE ON THE CAKE
⭕ 2.05 Warwick The Warwick card starts with an embarrassment of riches. The Highflyer Bloodstock Novices’ Chase has just one runner after the only other declared runner is now a non runner.
Easy money for Pembroke and the Skeltons but are we not now at the point where walkovers should be scrapped? It’s hardly a race after all and makes the game look a little bit of a laughing stock.
I’m relying on the Skeltons getting a ‘double’ in the novice hurdle at 2.05 where Cherie D’Am can build on the perfect start to her career. A winner of a PTP, a bumper and her hurdling debut at Wetherby she looks a hugely useful prospect and again gets her favoured soft ground.
She can make the best of the weight she receives from Push The Button who won lower class races at Bangor and Warwick before finding life tougher at Cheltenham last time out.
BOSTON CALLING
⭕ 3.25 Ffos Las I was taken by the way Boston Joe won at Wincanton last time out and am taking him to defy the hike in the weights.
The Rebecca Curtis trained runner jumped to his left throughout the race but still tanked home to win by nine and a half lengths with 13 lengths further back to the third. He was also eased down suggesting he remains considerably on the right side of his handicap mark.
He wasn’t stopping and on the same soft ground I’m not concerned about the step up in trip.
CHIP OFF THE OLD BLOCK
⭕ 6.30 Wolverhampton In theory this should be a decent class 2 but the reality is looking at current form it’s more like a class 4 and might not take that much winning!
None of the nine runners bring winning form into the race and many look handicapped to the hilt.
The exception might be Chipstead. The five-year-old does at least appear to be running back into form and is tried back on the all-weather for only the fourth time in his career. His Listed stakes fifth at Ascot two starts ago stands out like a beacon and he is now 2lb better off to boot!
It’s the exact sort of race I want to give myself a second chance in though but I am not so keen on Betdaq Betting Exchange market leader Alligator Alley. He is one of the few that has proven all-weather form having won a similar weak looking class 2 at Newcastle three starts ago and could still be on a winning mark despite being 4lb higher. However he hasn’t really shone in two starts since.
Rocket Rodney started his career well including a Listed win at Sandown and runner-up in the Windsor Castle but his form took a dip and he is trying all-weather for the first time. Any kind of liking for the surface and a return to his earlier form would give him an outstanding chance.
DAQMAN’S BETS
2.05 Warwick (win 10, nap)
BET 7.7pts win CHERIE D’AM
3.25 Ffos Las (win 10)
BET 3.3pts win BOSTON JOE
6.30 Wolverhampton (both win 10)
BET 1.6pts win CHIPSTEAD
BET 1.4pts win ROCKET RODNEY
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