DAQMAN DARES FESTIVAL 100 BID: Daqman picked an Irish hope as a big ante-post outsider for the Grand National from ‘his man in the long grass.’ Now the trainer himself publicly declares in the Racing Post his faith in the horse and reckons the Kim Muir first at Cheltenham is a must, with his contender in ‘excellent form.’ Signal for another Daqman gamble to win 100 points.
DAQMAN DARES WITH DAILY BETS: From Cheltenham onwards, Daqman will switch to a staking plan which tries to make a profit or break-even on a daily basis. How would he have fared in the last 40 days? His second story gives you some idea.
DAQMAN DARES TO PLAY IN THE GREEN AGAINST VICTORIA: Daqman declares that, on the form of the would-be jockey, Victoria Pendleton, you have to oppose her at Wincanton today. He’s too polite to say ‘lay’: he calls it a bet in the BETDAQ green.
THE CAUSE OF A CHELTENHAM TON-UP COUP
RSA Chase (Wednesday, March 16, Cheltenham) Was it you, you clever little punter, you? Someone filled their wallet with 16.5 BETDAQ offers about Blaklion at 11.23 p.m. last night, during a gamble which saw the Twiston-Davies local horse down to 7-1 in a place with bookmakers for Cheltenham.
Champion Chase (Wednesday) Fractions speak strong language when you’re talking the difference between 2-1 on or 4-6 (with most bookmakers) and a consistent 9.4-10 best offers on BETDAQ about Champion Chase favourite, Un de Sceaux.
Kim Muir Chase (Thursday) At last the word is out! Trainer Gordon Elliott reveals today that he’s currently ‘absolutely thrilled’ with Cause Of Causes, my ‘hidden horse’ for the Grand National.
This column is already on ‘Causes’ for Aintree but – if he’s fighting fit as Gordon now says publicly – then we ought to be on at Cheltenham: 11.0 on BETDAQ this morning for the Kim Muir Chase. We’ll ton-up bet to win 100.
DAQMAN SCORES 76 STRIKES IN 40 DAYS
I’ve been banging on about betting sequences. You can see the points I made about bankers, but what does it all mean for daily betting?
Either you win by being very selective, only backing certain types of bet on certain days; or you bet on a regular, maybe horse-by-horse basis, assuming you will emerge the winner in the long run, because your betting records with staking plan tell you so.
The hardest part of following a series of bets – like Daqman Bets – is that, inevitably, you have a bad day, or a short spell of losing days. A good ‘winner’ comes bounding clear to the last. And falls. Can you hold your nerve?
For instance the first two days this week, the only Daqman winner has been in the LAST race! Monday: Bravo Zolo (WON 7-4); Tuesday, Troika Steppes (WON 13-8).
But just before that, on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday, I had a FIRST-race winner or had scored by 2 o’clock: Skidby Mill (WON 11-4), Forgiving Glance (nap, WON 5-2), Zubayr (WON 9-1) and Lil Rockefeller (WON 7-4).
When you start with a win, is it time to stop betting for the day? Maybe that’s one way of following sequences: stop at a winner.
But the Monday and Tuesday winners coming in the last race of the day meant a hefty outlay on losers before the winner came, unless you had devised a contingency staking plan.
For my part, every day there is a staking plan with the bets and I try, on weekdays at least, to give a certain number of bets at certain offers, so that one success will cover the total outlay. I shall refine this for Cheltenham.
Only by keeping records and taking a long term view – backing from sequences of bets – can you hope to win if you are a regular punter. Here are the daily winning bets – 76 of them – over 40 days (example W2 = two wins; 0 = no winning bets that day):
*W2/W2/W9/W6/W1/0/0/W1/W2/W6/W1/0/W3/W2/0/W3/W4/0/W2/W4/0/0/W2/0/W2/W2/W2/W2/W3/
W2/0/0/W2/W2/W2/W1/W2/W2/W1/W1
This, of course, does not include the huge benefits of betting with BETDAQ: the scope to lay, to trade, and to cover a race from an early position and continue betting right up to the ‘off’, even during the race.
We’ll be talking about those before Cheltenham, when I propose – as ever – complete clarity as I attempt a profit or break-even by my staking each day.
SORRY VICKY! GREEN BET SEEMS SUITABLE
2.45 Wincanton I’m kicking myself for being rude to Theatre Guide on Saturday. Colin Tizzard ‘did a Cue Card’ and brought him back, after he dropped 10lb in a year, and grabbed yet another decent handicap.
Here’s Colin again with a decent sort in Quite By Chance in a race on his home track which he won last year. Quite By Chance, 3.8 on BETDAQ this morning) is three times a course winner.
It’s soft (showers) at Winkers, but is it soft enough for French import, La Vaticane?
Neil Mulholland went back to the drawing-board with Si C’etait Vrai – after that one run, pulled up – a horse he got from the late Dessie Hughes. Hasn’t won for two years, and he’s 10 years old now.
3.20 Wincanton Good luck to Victoria Pendleton. I don’t intend being sexist, crass or vulgar but ‘a lay’ is the racing term that clearly covers her ability thus far approaching this race.
You simply can’t back Pacha Du Polder to win at 2.72 and I’ll vote green at 3.0. Pacha is top on form but he does not have winning form on top.
I can’t think of two trickier country tracks – Fakenham and now Wincanton – to try out your jockeyship. That bit downhill as you’re into a fence towards the finish at Wincanton, has caught out many a professional jockey, never mind one who’s never won a race.
Big Fella Thanks belies his years but I’ll try a double whammy, laying Pacha and backing consistent Never Complain who, if he joins the Big Fella in the front rank, could have the legs of him, six years younger: 8.2 on BETDAQ, win and place.
11.5 QULINTON IS HOT AFTER A HOLIDAY
3.05 Bangor I’m going to bet that first-time hood produced Not For You’s good second on Saturday and that it may not work twice. He’s only ever won a maiden hurdle, and that’s a bad sign.
It’s his presence – staying in the area on from Chepstow – that makes us a price for the Venetia Williams’ mudlover, Cloudy Beach (4.1 offers on BETDAQ, as I write).
It’s raining.
3.40 Bangor Trainer Tim Vaughan, responsible for two in this (Noble Galileo and Tanit River), is having a shocking run with his last five still standing beaten a total of 176 lengths; three others failed to finish.
Alan Jones (Quincy des Pictons) hasn’t had a winner this season; Peter Winks (Domtaline) has had only two, and Giuseppe Ferro hasn’t had a winner out of Hednesford over hurdles or fences.
You would think the winner would come from Oliver Sherwood (Romulus Du Donjon), Ben Case (Petrou) or Venetia Williams (Bobbie Boru), of which Petrou (4.1 BETDAQ offers) is unexposed and should benefit from cheekpieces.
4.15 Bangor This is a veterans’ race in all bar name, with seven of the nine aged 10 to 12.
I fancy that old ‘thinker’ Qulinton (11.5 offers) to spring a surprise, as he’s done three times before after a long lay-off, when he’s ‘forgotten’ what he’s being asked to do.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength, except the ante-post bet)
BET 7pts win (nap) QUITE BY CHANCE (2.45 Wincanton)
BET 7pts win CLOUDY BEACH (3.05 Bangor)
LAY 5pts PACHA DU POLDER and BET 2pts win and place NEVER COMPLAIN (3.20 Wincanton)
BET 6pts win PETROU (3.40 Bangor)
BET 2pts win and place QULINTON (4.15 Bangor)
ANTE-POST TON-UP BET (to win 100): 10pts win CAUSE OF CAUSES (Kim Muir Chase, Cheltenham)
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