170 POINTS PROFIT FROM 12 WINS, THREE NAPS: It was the continuing story yesterday as Daqman bagged two more winners, including Westend Story (WON 5-4), his third winning nap in four days, as he notched up 12 returns for a total of 170 points profit.
WON 8-1 ROKSANA (NH Mares’ Final, Saturday)
WON 6-1 ON THE GO AGAIN (Irish Lincolnshire, 14.0 BETDAQ, Sunday)
WON 5-1 ADDEYBB (Lincoln Handicap winner in three, Saturday)
WON 5-1 THE BLUE BOMBER (Monday)
WON 7-2 MALAYA (nap, Sunday)
WON 7-2 RATHLIN ROSE (Sunday)
WON 13-8 SACKETT (Tuesday)
WON 11-8 BALLYMOY (Saturday)
WON 5-4 WESTEND STORY (Tuesday nap)
WON 10-11 ZABEEL PRINCE (nap, Doncaster Mile, Saturday)
(Place returns: Delface 2ND 7-1 from 22.0 on BETDAQ, Beau Bay 2ND 9-2 from 6.8)
HOW DAQMAN DIGS OUT THE WINNERS: DAY 2: Today is the second of three articles on the routine form work plus the hidden evidence you need to unearth the shape of a race and dig out the winner. It preludes a relaunch of the Daqman form-and-facts analysis, which returns on Friday for the AW Championships at Lingfield.
GET AN EDGE WITH A HIDDEN HORSE
Handicap I left you yesterday devising your own handicap. Tricky one. The official handicapper should have horses so rated that they would finish level in a notional race.
An edge So you must find an edge from the form and collateral form that he may not yet have included in his reckoning. Other factors can be a huge edge on the day.
Stalls We saw that, however the race was run, the draw bias in the Irish Lincolnshire helped the one stall to win when a sharp left-handed track gives low numbers an edge.
Going Many horses are ground dependent. You can often draw a line through those that can’t handle the days conditions. Even more important, look for horses that have been running on a surface they don’t like.. they can suddenly return to form in the right conditions.
Hidden horse Such a horse raced in the ‘wrong’ ground, over a trip that doesn’t suit, or in too high a class, can be said to be a ‘hidden horse’ when returning to an ideal situation.
W6 Times Low-class animals can only be produced for the odd ‘hit’ and you can’t blame the trainer for doing battle with the handicapper and trying to manipulate the situation so that he finds an opening for his ‘hidden horse’ (W6 Times = Waited with, will win when wanted).
Three and in It all starts when two-year-olds have three races to qualify for a handicap rating (a ‘mark’). You wouldn’t want to knock those babies about and end up with a massive weight, now would you!
My man in the long grass Two-year-olds and three-year-old maidens can improve dramatically at home, and one or two astute workwatchers, like the old-fashioned ‘touts’, keep an eye open for that.
Glass horse Horses lightly raced may be fragile (as if made of glass) but, if they have class and are well connected (running for a top stable), they may be ‘held together’ for occasional winning starts.
Wins when fresh You need to know which animals – not just the glass horse – win after an absence.
Profile The glass horse apart, profiling a horse in a race is essential. What time of year does he or she usually win a race (are they among the Early Birds), over what trip, ground; do they need plenty of pace on? Is the trainer in form?
Trainerform You should add trainers in or out of form to your algorithmical ratings changes to get a Future Rating from the base.
But it can be all so misleading. Tom George was on a stinker of a run when he suddenly hit form at Cheltenham, and I missed out on something I’d been waiting for (Now I know that so had Tom!) Trainers don’t run their horses for punters.
Missing strike It is perhaps more important to question the chances of a horse from a yard that keeps getting places but none, or very few, winners. The horses are either short of a gallop or short of finish because the yard is under a cloud, or even – the worst scenario – the trainer is placing them badly (in the wrong races) or has lost control of their handicap mark at a crucial time.
Wind Op/Beaten favourite Why have I put these together? Palette operations to aid a horse’s breathing now have to be declared.
And those keeping records will tell you that a good percentage of them win, though not quite as many as beaten favourites next time out. We’ll talk more about that tomorrow.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 except place bet as instructed):
BET 9.0pts win (nap) CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK (2.00 Wincanton)
BET 9.7pts win AWESOME ALLAN (2.20 Wolverhampton)
BET 2.5pts win 7.8pts place (win-stake saver + WIN 10 on race) ROUERGATE (3.05 Wincanton)
BET 8.1pts win ONE SECOND (4.00 Wolverhampton)
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
