SEVEN FROM 10 DAQMAN NAPS: NOW 192 POINTS UP: Daqman brought the winnings from his successful run of naps to 192 points yesterday after Zest (WON 2-1) became the seventh to score from the last 10, including three straight supernaps. Here’s his lucky seven in order of the SP best but bear in mind that the two odds-on shots were both a shade of odds against with BETDAQ when selected:
WON 4-1 RENE’S GIRL (nap)
WON 11-4 OLD GUARD (nap)
WON 2-1 ZEST (nap)
WON 5-4 MONBEG VICTORIOUS (supernap)
WON 6-5 BLOTTOS (nap)
WON 5-6 GREYED A (supernap)
WON 2-5 CYRNAME (supernap)
USUAL SUSPECTS FOR THE FIRST BIG FLAT FEATURE: Daqman takes a second look at the Lincoln today – at the winning trainers most likely to win it again – before switching his attention to Cheltenham from tomorrow. Then next week, his famous festival See How They Won features pick out the best of the ante-post markets.
IS THE LINCOLN AS EASY AS ADB?
Don’t let them treat you Lincoln green. The first big handicap is not the gambling race it was, they’ll tell you. But ask Barry Hills and William Haggas about that, to name but two, as they say.
Barry was assisting John Oxley when he built his career off the Frankincense (1968) gamble and William wasn’t short of a few bob after Very Wise (2007) landed a coup.
Penitent would follow for Haggas in 2010, the year after John Gosden slammed the layers with Expresso Star for two Lincoln handicap gambles landed in consecutive years.
Babodana (2004) and Very Wise were my personal killings but could never compete with 33-1 Sovereign Bill because he was the first leg of a Lincoln-National double with the 50-1 Aintree winner that year!
Here are the winningmost Lincoln trainers with entries this year, and whether they currently fall into the right handicap slot.
Richard Fahey (Brae Hill 2012, Gabrial (2015). One of the modern bookie bashers is Richard Fahey, who can saddle Another Touch, Constantino, Dark Devil or Stamp Hill at Doncaster on March 24
Michael Dods (Sweet Lightning 2011). Dods has only King’s Gift among the possibles.
John Gosden (Expresso Star 2009) He’s triple-handed with Dommersen, Taqdeer and Tricorn
William Haggas (High Low 1992, Very Wise 2007, Penitent 2010) He can choose from Addeybb or Original Choice.
David O’Meara (Bravery 2017) Bravery again, Escobar, Lord Glitters, Mythical Madness,
John Quinn (Blythe Knight. 2006, Levitate 2013) He has Big Storm Coming and Moonlightnavigator
VERDICT Seven of the last eight winners carried between 9st 1lb and 9st 4lb.
The only qualifiers – if the weights stay the same – from past winning stables are Addeybb, King’s Gift and Stamp Hill
Kings Gift hasn’t won since his two-year old days, and Stamp Hill has scored only at 7f. It needs something that gets a bit further to win the Lincoln.
Step up Addeybb. He won the 1m 1f Silver Cambridgeshire so needs a fast pace and will be staying on at the business end of the straight mile.
WOLVO GOES SOLO
Wolverhampton saves the day. With the turf cards already called off – hopes were high that there would be two all-weather meetings today but Newcastle tweeted after a second inspection at 11am: “Due to heavy snow fall and further snow forecast, today’s fixture has been abandoned. There will be a precautionary inspection tomorrow at 8am ahead of tomorrow’s afternoon fixture.”
Newbury will hold an inspection this afternoon for Friday’s card and it seems ‘The Beast From The East’ is likely to claim all turf racing until the weekend at the very earliest.
In Ireland, it looks just as gloomy. Thursday’s card at Clonmel and Friday’s evening meeting at Dundalk have both been cancelled by the Irish Horseracing Regulatory Board whilst Navan’s meeting on Saturday is also under threat as the course is currently unfit for racing due to a covering of snow.
Leopardstown’s card on Sunday also faces disruption due to snow.
Whilst Wolverhampton goes ahead there are already six non runners on the card presumably with transport problems.
MURPHY’S LAW FOR SUPERNAP
The 1m 4f handicap at 3.50pm has now cut up to just six runners with three non runners and it could be at the mercy of Compatriot.
Olly Murphy’s runner was a very comfortable winner over course and distance eight days ago, so much so that he might be able to shrug off the statutory 6lb penalty.
Sunshineandbubbles was an unlucky loser last time but over a shorter trip and when last tried over this trip finished last of 10 here.
Mrs Burbidge is better known as a hurdler and if anything this might be too short.
With the race cut up, it leaves Compatriot as a SUPERNAP at around 1.7 on BETDAQ.
4.25 Wolverhampton Nautical Haven has now finished second four times in a row and might again be vulnerable off his current mark of 83. He tries cheekpieces for the first time and Wolverhampton for the first time too. They might well be positives but you don’t want too many variables when backing a favourite.
A better bet might be Rose Berry who has a fair level of form and whilst only ninth of 10 in a better race at Kempton last time out wasn’t beaten far and this is a much weaker contest.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
SUPERNAP: 20pts win COMPATRIOT (3.50 Wolverhampton)
BET 3.7pts (to win 20) ROSE BERRY (4.25 Wolverhampton)
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