WORLD CLASS BUT NOT SO INTERNATIONAL: The race at York billed as the International today has British and Irish stars only, so an old-firm clash and the worry for punters that the old enemy – the arrival of rain – could play the biggest role, though is unlikely to stop the Great Voltigeur banker.
AND TOP-CLASS TIPPING FROM DAQMAN: Daqman and Pricewise clash in the 1.55 and 3.00 races at York with the scores Daqman 68, Pricewise 12, and the profits gap 306 points between them.
BETDAQ MARKET IS A SOFT TOUCH
Just when we thought it was safe to bet big again. York’s Ebor week is so welcome after the musical-saddles Shergar Cup and the desperate days of non-runners and wild-odds nags which have followed.
But it was ‘absolutely belting down’ on the Knavesmire, according to one local this morning, and the going was changed to good by about 10.30, with a further change likely, as thunderstorms were predicted until noon. Sod it (and I’m talking groundsman’s language, ok vicar)!
My advice. Take a position on something in the BETDAQ orange that seems suited to soft or acts on any ground. Then follow our punter-friendly markets of 103 to 109% overrounds on the early races, and bet to recoup and win, until you find out whether York is truly a knave’s mire!
BOW AIMING FOR THE BULL’S EYE
1.55 York The quality horses usually win this sprint in a slot between 9st 4lb and 9st 7lb (seven out of eight).
If you followed the last two races for draw ‘bias’, you’d be on low numbers after 5 and 2 (2016) and 5 and 3 (2015). But from results in the two previous years (15 beat 8 in 2014 and 15 beat 7 in 2013) you’d be forgiven for looking to the high numbers.
The answer, therefore, has to be to take one each side, four horses or so off the extremes.
Checking back to our quality weights slot, we have Thesme (Frankie Dettopri) drawn 2 racing off 9st 6lb and Edward Lewis (in the 5 gate) with 9st 5lb and a previous winner with plenty of give in the ground.
On the other side, Edward Lewis’s stablemate Move In Time (stall 17) has slipped down the handicap and is a winner on very soft.
Tipperary raider Tithonus looks interesting, though up in the handicap, because he’s a winner on a deep surface and has gate 16. Another Irish, Moviesta, usually needs a sound surface.
But Orion’s Bow for local hero Tim Easterby has been running well in top-class minimum-distance sprints, and is Group-1 entered.
The tough York straight, potentially soft surface and extra half-mile should be perfect for a bold Bow shot at the bull’s-eye from gate 13 (BETDAQ offers of 10.5).
Low numbers: Thesme (in 2) at 13.0. The pace runners seem to have congregated in the low stalls and jockey Frankie Dettori has been riding at his brilliant best again.
ACOMB BEE STING FOR THE NORTH
2.25 York (Acomb Stakes) It’s been a bit of a disappointment this Group 3 ever since Elusive Pimpernel (2009) was subsequently beaten in the Racing Post Trophy and failed to train on as a three-year-old.
Quality form today is represented by James Garfield, the Windsor Castle third, Zaaki, Wells Farhh Go and the well-entered-up Lansky can get behind and that won’t be an asset today, with Beatbox Rhythm, Danzan, Dee Ex Bee, Jazeel and Aidan O’Brien’s Fleet Review all winners or placed from the front.
O‘Brien hasn’t won this since the turn of the century, and his last 21 two-year-old runenrs at this meeting have all been beaten.
The buzz this morning was soft-ground Goodwood winner Dee Ex Bee, a giant of a juvenile whose long stride may take him clear for two out of two for the North.
SAFE LEFT OPEN FOR CRACKSMAN..
3.00 York (Great Voltigeur) I said earlier in the week that Capri would most likely leave this to Cracksman but that Aidan O’Brien would still be involved. As I write, he has three starters out of eight runners.
But Cracksman, placed in two Derbys, is out of a Pivotal mare so rain should not be a problem, whereas the O‘Brien trio have all been best on a soundish surface, as has Mirage Dancer thus far.
You could make a case for Khalidi by saying that he didn’t handle Epsom and has been placed like a stayer in the Gordon Stakes at gGoodwood and the King Edward at Royal Ascot But he’s a cast-off from the Cracksman yard. You win 92 for a 100, as I write.
ULYSSES TO ECLIPSE THEM AGAIN
3.35 York (International) What kind of horse could give a stone to Enable when second in the King George and 10lb to Barney Roy when beating him in the Eclipse?
I doubt any other than Ulysses could repeat that feat, yet another Sir Michael Stoute improver. He travels so well in his races and any other year, without an Enable, would be a King George winner coming into this at a short price.
Barney Roy needs to improve another 3lb to force a repeat of the fabulous duel with Ulysses that we saw in the Eclipse and the ground may turn against him. Six Eclipse winners have gone on to win this since 1994.
I have to believe that the Guineas double hero Churchill, who sweats like a pig but races like a gazelle, has had his form overtaken by improvers, but Ryan Moore insists that is not the case.
Cliffs Of Moher was my Derby hope – and punted big in a Classic double with Oaks winner Enable (when 25-1) – so I get that numb feeling in my wallet just reading the name! Second that day but well behind Ulysses in the Eclipse. Rain could change all that.
If rain gets into the ground, the 50-1 My Dream Boat (beat Found in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes last year) will at least halve. But Ulysses was value at 4.7, blind to the weather but one who handles different ground.
PLAIN SAILING FOR PLATITUDE
4.15 York Softening of the ground to add to the longer trip he’s been crying out for would make Platitiude’s 9.8 on BETDAQ big value for money. Plain sailing for a place.
Last year’s winner, Oceane, has 7lb more but first-time visor could bring him back and he’s in good form at home.
4.50 York Kevin Ryan has a small army of good two-year-olds and the stable is back to form. The one I like in this is Luis Fernandez (14.0 BETDAQ) with Jamie Spencer booked. A big threat if rain has softened the ground is runaway Newbury winner Tathmeen (8.8).
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
1.55 York
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50) 5.2pts win ORION’S BOW
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50) 4pts win THESME
2.25 York
BET (to win 20) 10pts win DEE EX BEE
3.00 York
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) CRACKSMAN
3.35 York
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50) 13pts win ULYSSES
BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50) 1pt win and place MY DREAM BOAT
4.15 York
BET 3.5pts win and place PLATITUDE
4.50 York
BET 3.8pts win TATHMEEN
BET 2.25pts win and place LUIS FERNANDEZ
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