TWO WINNING NAPS OUT OF THREE: Daqman yesterday added Green Monkey (WON 7-4) to his Sunday nap, Verema (WON 14-5), after a big-race four-timer on Saturday. He doubled Green Monkey with Don Padeja (WON 11-10) for two out of three in his Daq Multiples and a profit of more than 30 points on the day.
YOU LUCKY BETDAQ PUNTERS! Daqman spots massive value on BETDAQ this morning with bets at 22.0 and 20.0 but it’s value all the way as he compares the total percentage on each race with last year’s Total SP returned in the form book: two races trading at 101 and 103% on the exchange had massive take-outs with 132 and 137% Total SPs in 2012.
1.55 York Which side of the split will win if, indeed, there is a split. Well, there’s bags of potential pace among the low stalls from Majestic Myles (1), Ancient Cross (in 2), Whozthecat (3), Dick Bos (4), Demora (5), Judge ‘n Jury (6) and Zero Money (8) – all front-runners at some time or another – but Cheviot (14) and Bogart (15) from the high numbers also like to set a target.
Secret Asset’s success here at York in July has put him up 4lb higher than when he won this race in 2011. He’s better off with Lady Gibraltar (3rd) and Tax Free (4th) on July form but worse off with Demora (5th).
Tax Free won it in 2012 but is a once-a-year horse these days at the age of 11 and would have to have it all go his way.
One of those many front-runners could last out from in the van, but – with such a fast pace seemingly assured – I shall look beyond them at hold-up cruisers who can finish late.
Face The Problem is my choice. He’s moody and has had so much bad luck he probably makes his own trouble, but he was in fine form from July to September last year and is now down 10lb on his rating in the Spring.
His record this season is: badly drawn York in May; not clear run Musselburgh, June; now 12lb better for sixth to Barnet Fair, Ascot in July; lost his action at Goodwood.
Angels Will Fall (would like a drop of rain), Majestic Myles (in the coffin-box stall 1) and Ladyship (experimental drop back from 7f) are pattern horses, Angels Will Fall dropping to a handicap after 15 consecutive races from Listed to Group 1. This is his big chance at big offers: 22.0 on BETDAQ this morning, with Face The Problem at 20.0. and Ladyship 16.5.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Face The Problem, 2 Angels Will Fall, 3 Ladyship. BETDAQ total percentage 103. Last year’s Total SP: 132%
2.30 York (Acomb Stakes) Elusive Pimpernel (2009) and Dundonnell (2012) were among the front-runners in the Guineas market after winning this but proved to be ‘nearly horses’, and the last colt to do the double was Kings Best (1999-2000).
Entered up in the big two-year-old ‘classic’ races are Brazos, Il Paparazzi and The Grey Gatsby. Love the name, but actually he’s listed as a chestnut, and the grey in the race is Brazos!
‘Gatsby’ beat Brazos here at York (6f) before that one scored at Goodwood and a bigger danger may be Godolphin’s First Flight. Godolphin do well at this Ebor meeting. And First Flight did extra well at Newbury.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 First Flight, 2 The Grey Gatsby. BETDAQ total percentage 101. Last year’s Total SP 110%
3.05 York (Great Voltigeur Stakes) Has produced three St Leger heros this century, with the 13 Voltigeur winners recording the following form figures in the final Classic: 213-10-1-30-0. All nine to run finished in the first six.
The three that did the double were trained by John Gosden, Saeed Bin Suroor and Aidan O’Brien, all leading trainers at this Ebor meeting, and all represented in this race again today.
I moved all in on Telescope, with a maximum-stakes banker, at Haydock but he showed a lack of gears at 1m 2f (beaten by David Livingston) in his first Group race.
Anything having to grind it out with the quirky Noble Mission – there was a head between them at the post – has me worried but we are assured of seeing the difference a step up to 1m 4f will make today.
Haydock was Telescope’s first serious race and he is on a learning curve with the trainer most likely to improve him as he gets older, Sir Michael Stoute, and Ryan Moore warns that he may not come into his own until he’s a four-year-old.
The one pace of Irish Derby fourth, Cap O’Rushes, was good enough at Goodwood (Spillway third, Secret Number fifth) and he’s a St Leger fancy, well clear of Foundry in the Doncaster market.
But Foundry is the intriguing one today, pitched – even bolder than the class hike of Telescope at Haydock – from a maiden to a Group race, and a Group 2 at that.
I see Foundry has another race between this one and the Leger, at Leopardstown in 17 days time, so I am guessing he, too, is on a trajectory, with Doncaster the target, and Ladbrokes, who usually know the time of day at Ballydoyle, are fielding against him at 8-1.
Ladbrokes go only 11-8 (shortest of them all) about Telescope and, since I shall be saying in my International analysis below that the (Cap O’Rushes) Derby form is not setting the world alight, then it has to be Telescope and I have to try to square the chips with another maximum.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Telescope, 2 Cap O’Rushes. BETDAQ total percentage 101. Last year’s Total SP 110%
3.40 York (INTERNATIONAL STAKES)
There’s nothing of the status of a Frankel (2012) or Sea The Stars (2009), who won this off 140 (aged 4) and 133 (aged 3) respectively, with Toronado (he’s 3) highest rated here on 126 over Al Kazeem (124, aged 5).
Trading Leather (120) is the only Classic winner in today’s field but the Derby form has been discredited all the way. The only other colt who comes through is Galileo Rock, and that’s because he’s a stayer – Cup horse for next year – who’s been running on through the fields at Epsom and The Curragh.
The ‘Rock’ ran just under two lengths second to Trading Leather in the Irish Derby, about the same as he was behind Ruler Of The World in the Epsom version.
Everything else from Epsom has flopped since, with the fourth home, Battle Of Marengo, running Hillstar to a length at Royal Ascot, suggesting he is no way good enough either.
Since Trading Leather and Hillstar were separated by less than a length in the King George – trounced five lengths by Novellist – the conclusion is that they are much of a muchness.
It leaves Toronado to try to run down Al Kazeem, and that is exactly what he’s good at. Having run well below par in the Guineas, he redeemed himself with a storming finish to beat Dawn Approach in the Sussex Stakes over a mile.
Toronado’s ‘adopted’ style of running, and his pedigree, suggest that today’s longer trip will be no problem. I say ‘adopted’ because he used to make all the running but – like Frankel – he has learned to settle and become a finisher.
Rewarded is a stone off these and Declaration Of War has been beaten by both Toronado and Al Kazeem, so is seemingly looking for a place.
He is more a miler and, if you take him out of the 1m 2f Eclipse result (he was second), then Al Kazeem was merely beating his old foe, Mukhadram (third) over again, after their one-two at Royal Ascot.
Allowing the weight for age, Toronado beat him by further in the Sussex Stakes, with an on-form Guineas winner, Dawn Approach, dividing them at the finish.
If, as expected, Toronado gets good-to-firm ground, waiting tactics and that telling burst of finishing speed should win the day. In fact, not even good-to-soft at Goodwood could blunt it and they came home in a time faster than average, which suggests that the race was of a very high quality.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Toronado, 2 Al Kazeem, 3 Trading Leather. BETDAQ total percentage 101. Last year’s Total SP: 137%
4.20 York I put the mare Broxbourne in my horses-to-follow list after she got a stinking ride in the Shergar Cup and it should be close on form now between that one and her conqueror that day, Homeric, whom she had beaten at Ascot in July.
Normally Homeric’s 6lb pull for three-and-a-half lengths at Ascot would be enough but Broxbourne fairly flew away with the Goodwood Stakes. The further they went, the more she loved it, still improving despite six wins already this year and a massive ratings hike of 35lb.
She should get the fast tow she needs from Eagle Rock, who beat Mawaqeet over today’s CD (York course and distance) in July, with Mawaqeet last of six when Broxbourne beat Homeric that day at Ascot.
Another form line from the Eagle Rock race puts Flashman behind Mawaqeet on a line through All The Aces.
But Flashman, who had looked far from flash all season, came good in the manner of an improving horse when breaking the track record over the same York CD a month ago. Suraj is unexposed and has his first real chance at the trip.
Daqman’s verdict: 1 Broxbourne, 2 Flashman, 3 Suraj. BETDAQ 106%. Last year at SP: 130%
4.55 York The opening race should tell you whether there’s any draw bias. But one ‘bias’ seems sure to continue: BETDAQ offers add up to massively less than the SP will (108% as I write, 126% Total SP with the bookies last year).
One professional punter I know likened nurseries to buying a toy for a baby. After studying the form in the toy shop, you make your selection only for him (or her) to throw it back at you, straight out of the pram.
Anything you bet on here might bite you back, since your real choice is between juveniles going forward and those going backward. The results at 33-1 (twice), 20-1 and 12-1 in the last five years suggest that no one knows which is which until after the race.
Flying Bear to stay in the pram? He beat a big field at Goodwood and his penalty is absorbed by the rider’s claim. Coulsty is Richard Hughes’s pick for nursery king, Richard Hannon.
DAQMAN’S BETS:
all bets to win 30 points, barring the banker.
GOLD VALUE BETS: 2pts win LADYSHIP, and 1.5pts win on each FACE THE PROBLEM and ANGELS WILL FALL (1.55 York)
GOLD VALUE BET: 13pts win FIRST FLIGHT (2.30 York)
VALUE BANKER: 20pts win (nap) TELESCOPE (3.05 York)
GOLD VALUE BET: 15pts win TORONADO (3.40 York)
VALUE BETS: 6pts win BROXBOURNE and 3.3pts win FLASHMAN, with 2.5pts win (stakes saver) HOMERIC (4.20 York)
BET 3pts win COULSTY and 2.7pts win FLYING BEAR (4.55 York)
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