SEARCH FOR THE UNEXPECTED: Punters beware on Day One of the York Ebor meeting. It’s not always safe to follow the form at this time of the season. Improvers and some unexpected Yorkers are bowled every year at this time! Headlines:
OLD-TIMER CAN BOLT HOME
CARMERS THE BIG IMPROVER
DARYZ DELACROIX DANGER
GRANDE TERRORISE PLOT
OLD-TIMER CAN BOLT HOME
⭕ 1.50 York Eight out of 10 winners of this 5.5f sprint came from the farside (stalls 2 to 10), with last year’s order in: 6, 7, 2, 3, 8.
LAYS LOGIC: The Man is well drawn in 4 but three-year-olds don’t win this (and just two aged four have scored in the decade). Raised 8lb for winning a 3yo handicap here and this is all aged.
FORM: Copper Knight and Vintage Clarets, fifth and sixth in 2023 from 6 and 15, have very similar draws this time around, with Copper Knight 6lb lower and a stone down on his winning rating in the 2021 race.
Jordan Electrics, runner-up out of gate 7 last year (with Vintage Clarets 8th out of 14), races off a similar mark coming out of 11 today.
Though an old-timer at eight, Brazen Bolt won here in July then stepped up two grades to back up at Goodwood in a new lease of life since joining Ruth Carr off a mark 10lb lower than last year.
Spring Is Sprung (out of the one stall) is raised a stone for a class-4 hat-trick, and Bergerac hasn’t raced off today’s mark since he won this at York three years ago.
CARMERS THE BIG IMPROVER
⭕ 3.00 York (Great Voltigeur) Nine of the last 12 winners came from the first three in the betting, with seven of them favourite, stalls 2, 3, 4 containing 10 of the last 12 winners.
Coming here with a higher rating than Aidan O’Brien’s Continuous (2023) and Los Angeles (2024), dual Derby winner, Lambourn is likely to give him the hat-trick.
The improver is Paddy Twomey’s Carmers, winner of the Queens Vase from Further, who has just franked the form in the Geoffrey Freer. Forecast (reverse) Carmers and Lambourn.
DARYZ DELACROIX DANGER
⭕ 3.35 York (International Stakes) Sharing 50% of the International strikes in the decade are Team Gosden (3) and Aidan O’Brien (2), who won it with Derby winner City Of Troy last year.
Today the Eclipse one-two, separated by a neck, meet again: Delacroix (O’Brien) v. Ombudsman (Gosden), with the runner-up 3lb better off.
It’s a small field but Japan with Danon Decile and France with Daryz field improvers who are unbeaten this year.
Danon Decile is rated to within a pound of Delacroix but has to give away 7lb weight for age.
Though he has a stone to find, the Aga Khan’s unbeaten Daryz – big and imposing – takes after his sire, Sea The Stars, his dam and granddam both Group-1 winners
GRANDE TERRORISE PLOT..
⭕ 4.10 York (2m stayers’ handicap) Up in grade, up in trip! No bother to Alphonse Le Grande in 2024, culminating in his Cesarewitch victory.
But his 20lb rise may have finally caught up with him and I fancy Terrorise, smart CD winner last month getting lumps of weight from seasoned campaigners.
DAQMAN’S BETS on Betdaq Betting Exchange
1.50 York (win-50 bull’s-eye bets)
★ BET 4pts win BRAZEN BOLT (nap)
BET 2.25pts win COPPER KNIGHT
3.00 York (win 20)
BET 4pts win CARMERS
BET 3pts reverse forecast with LAMBOURN
3.35 York (win 50 bull’s-eye bet)
BET 5pts win DARYZ
BET 3pts reverse forecast with DELACROIX
4.10 York (win-50 bull’s-eye bet, win 20)
BET 6pts win TERRORISE
BET 5pts win ALPHONSE LE GRANDE
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