FORTUNE COOKIES’ MUSIDORA HIT: York is here and the promise of two Fortune Cookies at the meeting has become three, with weekend trials urging Daqman to put a filly in his team, which is dedicated to winning Group races. She runs in the Musidora today.
POT OF GOLD: 18.5 OPENING SHOT: At the same time, Daqman pledges more Ton-Up (to win 100) and Bull’s-eye Bets (to win 50) but with the extra edge of backing them at bonus value, which he explained yesterday and spells out today in the opening race, backing an 18.5 shot to win more than 87 points.
BACK TO THE CHALLENGE: DAQMAN 27, PRICEWISE 9: Daqman and Pricewise challenge for value in the 2.10 and 2.40 races at York, with the scores Daqman 27, Pricewise 9.
HOODED HERNANDO THE DANGER TO PACIFY
2.10 York The winner of this race last year (Master Of Finance was runner-up) went on to win the Wolferton Handicap at Royal Ascot.
The same double is the declared aim of Pacify (6.2 on BETDAQ this morning), who put up a good performance at York as a three-year-old against older horses last summer.
He’s now in the right age group for today’s race. Success for Pacify would make it eight out of 10 for four-year-olds. Seven of the last nine winners of had had between two and five starts before taking this handicap.
That means we should check out other lightly-raced sorts, Spanish Squeeze, Lord Ben Stack, Hernandoshideaway and Erik the Red, while Nayel is also four.
Victory at Nottingham in a race of winners gave Nayel back-to-back success on a sound surface last summer, and a prep run for this at Windsor on soft in late April was the first time we’ve seen him since.
Nayel has a handy draw in stall 4. If only Richard Hannon had a better track record at York, I’d be content with that.
Spanish Squeeze, gelded since last season, looks suited to his high draw, as a hold-up type. He could be the ‘hidden horse’, as he was hard to train before the op.
An eye-opener in this company is some of the form of Lord Ben Stack, who took on Golden Horn in last year’s Dante Stakes here, though he needs to step up on his seasonal debut behind Master Of Finance, and the Karl Burke stable is out of form.
Erik the Red is another with a future York target – the Magnet Cup – but, as a hold-up horse, will need some organising today from stall 2.
Hernandoshideaway has always been regarded as a stayer but has a decent cruising speed and, in first-time hood, could be the surprise packet at 18.5 in the BETDAQ orange, as I write.
I think he rates a 10-1 chance, which would cost me 5 points to win 50 in a bull’s-eye bet; if I keep that 5-point stake at 18.5, I shall achieve a massive 75% bonus return.
BOWEN DRAWN TO HIT THE BULL’S-EYE..
2.40 York You’re looking for a local Yorkshire horse, who’s had a reappearance run and is drawn in double-figures, six years old or younger.
Strict adherence to these stats would short-list George Dryden (stone higher than when winning here), Flaming Spear, God Willing and Tatlisu, who was fifth in this last year when Bogart was eighth.
Bogart’s trainer is 1-30 since May 1 and has a poor strike rate of only 5% with older horses on the Knavesmire, which is just about reflected by Bogart’s form at York in the last four years: 4000U10000U00300.
This could be the day but the horse is hard to fancy, even if down in the weights and talked up by his trainer, with 10.5 to 12.0 offers hardly covering the risk though you might consider a potential trade: the Pricewise lemmings could force him in to favouritism.
A more likely winner for Ryan is the lightly-raced and in-form Flaming Spear, reverting to 6f – his maiden success was here at York over this trip – after lasting out well from the front over 7f at Newmarket.
The snag there is two fold: he’s setting up the race for a strong finisher today and his Newmarket field included many unfit animals.
God Willing, gelded over the winter, has been dropped back in trip, and looked well for it on his reappearance for his new stable, that of in-form Declan Carroll.
George Bowen has won first time in each of the last two seasons, and was runner-up to Richard Fahey stablemate Tatlisu in the Ayr Silver Cup in the autumn after winning the Bold Lad Sprint at the Curragh. The trainer reports that Bowen (12.0 on BETDAQ as I write) is a much stronger horse this year and he’s my bull’s-eye punt.
MOVIESTA CAN SHOW IN RACE OF SURPRISES
3.15 (Duke Of York Stakes) Another sprint but much higher class, though no easier for that, with winners in the decade at 40-1, 25-1 (twice), 20-1, 16-1, 12-1 and 10-1.
You obviously need a horse that‘s had a run and competed at Group level before, though those stats are foiled by Twilight Son, Eastern Impact, Moonraker and Danzeno, as winners or close up first time out in the last two seasons.
Diamond Jubilee and Arc winners both carried 9st 13lb to win this in two of the last three seasons. Twilight Son gets his penalty for winning the Haydock Sprint but he was beaten as British Champion at Ascot in October by Muhaarar.
And he has to give 5lb to Magical Memory, whom he beat only about a length at levels at for the Haydock Sprint.
Frankie Dettori chose Danzeno (sixth) that day but there was too much give in the ground for him, and maybe the rain has just taken the edge off his chance again. Frankie thinks so.
Moviesta (20.00 on BETDAQ) improved on previous form when they found out how to ride him with a late run at The Curragh in the late summer last year, and he is worth a pound in the spirit of past shocks in this race
GOLD BANKER FOR FIRST FORTUNE COOKIE
3.45 (Musidora Stakes) I raised So Mi Dar to the ranks of my Fortune Cookies after her Epsom Derby Trial win over the colts was double franked.
Runner-up Humphrey Bogart took the Lingfield Derby Trial after the third horse home, Viren’s Army, had already won the Chester Vase
Best In The World appeared to be on a Ballydoyle fishing trip in this until her Curragh conqueror, Dolce Strega, won the Athasi Stakes and the Athasi runner-up, Steip Amach, beat the boys in the Amethyst.
We shall get a second clue to the merits of So Mi Dar relative to Oaks favourite, Minding, since Fireglow ran fourth to that one in the 1,000 Guineas.
It all adds up to a fascinating Musidora but one which will need to be above standard, with only Sariska (2009) winning the Oaks afterwards from recent runnings.
But no filly had ever before won the old Blue Riband Derby Trial at Epsom, so I’m feeling pretty confident in So Mi Dar as my first Fortune Cookie. I’ll give her a 30-point gold banker.
DAQMAN’S BETS (stakes as stated)
2.10 York
POT-OF-GOLD BET: 5pts win and place at 18.5 HERNANDOSHIDEAWAY, and 5.75pts (win 30) PACIFY
2.40 York
BULL-S-EYE BET (to win 50): 5.5pts win and place GEORGE BOWEN
3.15 York
BET (to win 30) 1.5pt win and place MOVIESTA
3.45 York
FORTUNE-COOKIE GOLD BANKER: 30pts win (nap) SO MI DAR
4.50 York
BET 1pt win and place LA HAULE LADY
6.30 Bath
BET 1pt win and place PACK IT IN
£25 IN FREE BETS
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