Denver Broncos (2-0, 0-2 ATS) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Seattle -4.5 (48.5)
Significant Injuries
Denver: LB Danny Trevathan (questionable– knee), LB Lerentee McCray (out– foot)
Seattle: LB Bruce Irvin (questionable– ribs), CB Tharold Simon (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Denver is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Denver is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Seattle is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss
Seattle is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 5-1 in Denver’s last 6 September games
The OVER is 4-0 in Seattle’s last 4 September games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Seattle’s last 6 home games
The OVER is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Denver
1. The Broncos have the NFL’s best offense, a unit that broke several NFL records last year and has produced 55 combined points in two games this season. This week they get the reliable Wes Welker back from suspension, so the offense will be at full strength for the first time in 2014.
2. Seattle’s vaunted defense has taken a step back this season; they surrendered 30 points in a loss to San Diego last week and they currently rank last in the league in 3rd-down defense, with opponents converting 55% of their 3rd downs. That’s not a good thing when you’re about to face Peyton Manning and the high-flying Broncos.
3. Giving a Peyton Manning-led Denver team 4.5 point just isn’t a smart idea. Since Manning’s arrival the Broncos have lost by 5 points or more just five times in 38 games.
Three reasons to back Seattle
1. The Seahawks led the NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed last season, and when they met the much-hyped Denver offense in the Super Bowl it wasn’t a fair fight, as the Broncos could manage just 8 points in a humiliating 35-point loss. The vast majority of both rosters return intact.
2. The Broncos have been overvalued this season; they’ve won both of their games but have yet to cover. They’re having problems on defense, specifically against the run, where they currently rank 24th (rush yds. allowed). Seattle, of course, is a power running team that ran right over the Denver defense when these teams met in February.
3. Not only are the Seahawks one of the NFL’s best home teams, covering in 16 of their last 21 home games, they’re also especially good against quality teams, covering in (coincidentally) 16 of their last 21 games against teams with winning records.
Prediction
