Detroit Lions (2-1, 2-1 ATS) @ New York Jets (1-2, 1-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Detroit -2 (45)
Significant Injuries
Detroit: S James Ihedigbo (questionable– knee), S Don Carey (questionable– hamstring), OT LaAdrian Waddle (questionable– calf), CB Cassius Vaughn (questionable– ankle), LB Travis Lewis (questionable- leg), RB Montell Owens (questionable– hamstring)
New York: LB A.J. Edds (questionable– hamstring), CB Dee Milliner (questionable– quadricep), WR Eric Decker (questionable– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 September games
Detroit is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games
New York is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
New York is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Week 5 games
The OVER is 7-1 in Detroit’s last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 5-1 in Detroit’s last 6 games overall
The OVER is 5-1 in New York’s last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record
Three reasons to back Detroit
1. The Lions have one of the NFL’s most feared passing attacks, with strong-armed quarterback Matt Stafford frequently looking in the direction of Calvin Johnson, the league’s finest receiver. Well, it just so happens that the secondary is the primary weakness of the Jets defense, specifically the cornerback position. The New York corners have been exploited in previous games this season, and they could be in for a long, long day against Stafford and Co.
2. The Jets have a terrible offense that is helmed by 2nd-year quarterback Geno Smith, who led the NFL in turnovers in 2013. Smith was in typical form last week when a horrid pick-6 proved to be the difference in New York’s loss to Chicago. The Jets will try to take the game out of Smith’s hands by running the ball, but they likely won’t have much success against a Detroit defense that ranks 2nd against the run.
3. Detroit leads the NFL in total defense and they rank 2nd in points allowed, surrendering just 15 points per game this season. They’ll simply be too much for a Jets offense that has produced fewer than 20 points in 2 of their 3 games this year.
Three reasons to back New York
1. Let’s start with this: the Lions are notoriously unreliable and they’re terrible on the road, failing to cover in each of their last 4 attempts. In their only road game this season Detroit managed just 7 points in a loss to a Carolina team that is very similar in style to the Jets.
2. The Jets rank 2nd in the NFL in rushing offense and they lead the league in rushing defense. If you think this is a bad team, think again: the ability to both run the ball and stop the run has been a key to winning football since the game was invented. They’ll impose their will on a Detroit team that has crumbled against tough, physical opponents in the past.
3. Not only do the Jets rank 2nd in total defense, they rank 8th in total offense, which is probably a surprise to anyone who hasn’t been paying attention. Marty Mornhinweg finally has that New York offense rolling and people don’t realize it yet, which is why the Jets are a great value right now. Sharp bettors will pounce before the public catches on.
Prediction
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