DEUTSCHE BANK CHAMPIONSHIP: The second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs gets underway on Friday, as the top 100 players in the points standings will tee it up in the Deutsche Bank Championship at TPC Boston. Notice I said “Friday” and not Thursday– the PGA Tour has once again made this a Friday-Monday event due to the Labor Day holiday, so be sure to plan your viewing schedule accordingly. Nothing worse than being caught flat-footed in your trading due to poor scheduling.
As expected with a tournament of this magnitude the field is incredibly strong, with world No. 1 Jason Day heading BETDAQ’s Win Market at 7.6 and Dustin Johnson (14.0), Jordan Spieth (14.0), and Rory McIlroy (15.0) not far behind. Rickie Fowler (29.0) is the defending champion and he’s coming off a top-10 at The Barclays, but his late Sunday collapse leaves as many questions as answers, especially for a guy who has only found the top-20 twice in his last nine starts. So… who’s it going to be??
TPC Boston has played host to this event since its inception in 2003, and the rave reviews from players indicate that the Arnold Palmer design will be a fixture on Tour for years to come. A par-71 measuring just over 7,200 yards, the course features a nice mix of tough, demanding holes and clear birdie opportunities. The winning score has been 15-under par in each of the past two years, which is just about right for a layout that yields plenty of red numbers but isn’t a wide-open birdie-fest. With immaculate bentgrass greens, penalizing rough, and a traditional, tree-lined look, TPC Boston is the quintessential Northeastern golf course– it’s penal without being hokey and prioritizes accuracy over length, though no one ball-striking stat stands out as an obvious angle.
Handicapping a field of this caliber is always a bit tricky, as there are several guys who you could build a strong case for and several others who have championship pedigrees and fat, juicy prices next to their names. I’ve eschewed the very top of the market, as you can see, but all three of these players have a genuine chance to win and their prices will likely shorten as the week progresses:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Sergio Garcia (39.0)- Sergio skipped The Barclays last week, as is his custom, but he’s played some beautiful golf this summer, registering four top-5s in his last five worldwide starts. He last tasted victory at the Byron Nelson in May, so it hasn’t been too long, and his 68.85 stroke average in his past seven opening rounds means he’s likely to be in the mix all week long, making this a sensible play even for those who don’t believe Sergio can close the deal on Sunday (well, Monday in this case). Most importantly, Garcia has an excellent record in this event, making the cut in all five of his appearances and finding the top-5 twice. He’s a blue-chip option this week and a must-bet at a price like 39.0.
Emiliano Grillo (46.0)- Okay, I won’t go so far as to call Grillo a “blue-chip option” or pretend that he’s as reliable as Garcia in a situation like this, but I’ve got a great feeling about the young Argentine this week and I’ve decided to hop aboard at 46.0. He may be a rookie who’s seeing many of these courses for the first time but you sure wouldn’t know it by watching him play, as his runner-up performance at The Barclays last week was his fifth top-15 finish in his last seven starts. His victory at the Frys.com Open is proof that he can seal the deal, and he’s clearly getting more comfortable every time he tees it up. We’ve seen young guys get on a roll and tear through these Playoffs before– Billy Horschel, anyone?– and Grillo is the number 1 candidate for such a run. He currently ranks 16th on Tour in Driving Accuracy and 33rd in GIR percentage, so this guy is striking it beautifully right now. If a couple of putts fall for him, who knows? He could really make a name for himself in the coming days…
Sean O’Hair (126.0)- Considering he’s one of the streakiest players on Tour (maybe “streaky” isn’t the best description for someone who totally lost his ability to play for a couple of years, but it’s the one I’m going with), O’Hair is not someone I throw money at often. However, this week looks like the perfect spot for him: he’s back in the Northeast, where he grew up and where he’s always played his best golf, and he may have found his game again after his runner-up finish at The Barclays last week. Make no mistake: when O’Hair is right, he’s an elite player. Long off the tee with soft hands and an excellent short game (currently leads the PGA Tour in sand saves), O’Hair was once a can’t-miss prospect who was led astray by swing gurus and the elusive search for perfection. No one yet knows if he’s truly “back” or if last week’s performance was just lightning in a bottle, but at better than 100/1 I’m willing to pay to find out. If he plays well on Friday and gives firm indication that he’s indeed back to top form, this is going to look like an absolute steal.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Rory McIlroy (1.91) vs. Jordan Spieth (1.91)
The year hasn’t quite panned out for either one of these guys, as they’ve lost their Flavor of the Month status to the likes of Dustin Johnson and Jason Day. McIlroy is a past winner of this event but he seems to be losing steam down the season’s home stretch, missing the cut at the PGA and then finishing a disappointing 31st at The Barclays last week. Spieth may not have Past Champion status here but he did finish 4th in 2013, so he knows his way around the golf course, and his 10th-place showing at The Barclays last week was preceded by a top-15 at the PGA, making him the hotter player at the moment. Plus, he putts better than Rory. We can all agree on that. Recommendation: Spieth at 1.91
Brooks Koepka (1.91) vs. Jim Furyk (1.81)
Kopeka was on a tear before struggling at The Barclays last week, where he shot four consecutive over-par rounds and finished the week at plus-7. Maybe Bethpage Black just wasn’t a fit for his game, but based on his performance in this event last year, when he shot 150 over two rounds and only beat three people, we have to conclude that maybe TPC Boston isn’t a great fit, either. Furyk, meanwhile, has played this tournament eleven times, never missing a cut and collecting four top-10s. He’s made his last 10 cuts on Tour and seems to be making a genuine push to be a Ryder Cup captain’s pick, something that seemed unlikely when he was sidelined for months earlier this year with a wrist injury. Recommendation: Furyk at 1.81
