DONN McCLEAN: When all the talk about ripping up the turf track at Newcastle and replacing it with an all-weather surface first began, there was also talk was of still running the Northumberland Plate on turf, on the hurdles track. That talk did not gain much traction however, so here we are: all set for the first Northumberland Plate to be run on Tapeta.
The change in surface hasn’t detracted from the popularity of the race mind you. On the contrary, not only have they reached the safety limit of 20 declarations, no problem, with only two defections from the original top 20, but they have filled a consolation race too, the Northumberland Vase, making its inaugural appearance at 3.40, 35 minutes before the Plate.
The change is surface is not a negative for favourite Steve Rogers. Roger Varian’s horse has form on all-weather generally, and he has form on Tapeta specifically. He has run twice on Tapeta at Wolverhampton, and he has won on both occasions. He has run four times in total on all-weather surfaces, and he has won three times, the most recent occasion in a two-mile handicap on Polytrack at Kempton.
However, those two wins on Tapeta were gained in the winter of 2015, in Class 6 and Class 5 handicaps. And he put up a moderate effort in the Chester Cup last time.
All looked set for a big run that day. He was strong in the market, he was one for one at the track going into the race, the ground was perfect and he got the run of the race. However, when Andrea Atzeni asked him to pick up at the top of the home straight, he just didn’t.
Nothing has reportedly come to light since to explain that poor performance. There may have been something amiss, you can always forgive a horse one poor run, but he is priced up for today’s race as if he hadn’t run in the Chester Cup. He is 6lb higher today than he was when he won at Kempton and, progressive individual though he is, you can look beyond him at 9.0.
It is more difficult to look beyond Nakeeta at a similar price. Iain Jardine’s horse did really well to finish as close as he did in second place in the Chester Cup. He was drawn wide and he raced wider than ideal throughout, yet he finished off his race really well, he ran the winner No Herectic to a short head.
A 3lb hike for that is not harsh, primarily because he retains his progressive profile. He won his last two races last season, two 14-furlong handicaps at Haydock off marks of 84 and 89 respectively and, on the evidence of the Chester Cup, he has carried his improvement into this season as a five-year-old.
His mark of 96 is a career-high mark, but it is difficult to argue that he is not as good as ever now. He stays two miles well, Iain Jardine has his horses in top form and Royston Ffrench has built up a very good relationship with the horse.
The only negative is a price of 9.0. That is probably just about his correct price.
By contrast, odds of around 20.0 look big about Saigon City. A progressive performer as a four-year-old for Luca Cumani, the Mount Nelson gelding ran some fine races last season as a five-year-old over a mile. He finished second to Directorship in a good handicap at Ascot on fast ground in April off a mark of 85, and he stepped forward from that to finish second to the talented Lightning Spear – third in the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot last week – in a better race at Salisbury in June off a mark of 88.
He has stepped up significantly in trip this season since he has joined Declan Carroll. He was well beaten on his debut for Carroll over two miles at Ripon in April, but that was his seasonal debut, his first run for a new yard, his first attempt at two miles, at an idiosyncratic track, and it was on soft ground, so you can easily allow him that.
He stepped forward significantly from that to win at York last time.
There was a lot to like about that win. He came under pressure early in the home straight, but he stayed on remarkably well for a horse who was ostensibly a miler to go on and win well, leaving some good two-mile handicappers like The Cashel Man and Matorico and Grumetti and Cardinal Palace behind him.
The handicapper raised him 4lb for that win, but that is fair. He has the potential to improve now beyond his new mark of 92 as a stayer, after just his second run of the season, his second for his new trainer and his second over a stayer’s trip. Also, a mark of 92 sees him get into the Northumberland on bottom weight of 8st 12lb, number 20 of 20, which is ideal in a race in which nine of the last 10 winners carried 9st 4lb or less.
Four-year-olds do not have as good a record as you would think in the race, given that they are the youngsters (it’s all relative), that they are the ones who should have most potential for progression beyond the rating that the handicapper has given them.
A little surprisingly, six-year-olds over-perform, as evidenced by four six-year-old winners in the last decade from just 21% of the runners. Saigon City could further enhance that record.
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
