DONN McCLEAN: Lots of eyes will be on The Gurkha in this afternoon’s Eclipse at Sandown. He’s fancied and he’s fashionable and he’s favourite, and that combination always attracts eyes.
The money has come for him all week, ever since Aidan O’Brien said that he would probably run, which coincided with the arrival of the rains. His trainer says that he is a better horse on better ground, but the fact is that he has run big races at Naas and at Royal Ascot on soft ground, so that all augurs well for easy ground at Sandown.
He is a high-class colt, a top class colt. He won the French 2000 Guineas by five and a half lengths, a race from which the third and fifth emerged to finish third and second respectively in the Prix du Jockey Club, and he was unlucky not to at least finish closer to Galileo Gold than he did in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.
He is by champion sire Galileo, he is trained by champion trainer Aidan O’Brien, he will be ridden by champion jockey Ryan Moore, and we know that he will handle the ground. He is rock solid.
The only real downside is his price. He is no better than 2.0, he is the quintessential even money shot. 50-50. Are you a backer or a layer at evens?
There may be enough imponderables to allow you lay him at evens. For starters, fundamentally, he has to improve again on the book if he is to get past Time Test and My Dream Boat. On official ratings, he has 1lb to find with the former and 2lb to find with the latter, yet he is a much shorter price than both.
So he has only run four times in his life, he didn’t race as a two-year-old last season, so he has lots of scope for progression. That is true, but both Time Test and My Dream Boat have nice progressive profiles even as four-year-olds, as does fellow three-year-old Hawkbill. All three have the potential to improve on their current respective ratings.
The signs are that The Gurkha will get the 10-furlong trip all right. Indeed, after he won the French Guineas, the Derby was all the talk, not the St James’s Palace Stakes. It may be that he will improve for the step up to 10 furlongs, and he is so good over a mile that he would be some force over the intermediate trip if he does improve for the extra distance.
However, the converse is also the case. He is so good over a mile, he has the pace of a miler pace, so he may not improve for stepping up in trip. The fact remains that he has never been beyond a mile in his life.
Then there is the fact that recent history tells you that it is difficult for three-year-olds in the Eclipse. In the last decade, only Golden Cross and Sea The Stars – both Derby winners, both exceptional talents – have triumphed for the Classic generation in Sandown’s flagship event. Apart from those two wins, three-year-olds have had just three places in the Eclipse from 22 runners in those 10 years, as opposed to four-year-olds, who have had three wins and 11 places from 29 runners in that time. That’s a place return of just 23% for three-year-olds as against 48% for four-year-olds.
Incidentally, five-year-olds have won the race five times in the last decade from just 16 runners, which augurs well for the only five-year-old in this year’s renewal, Western Hymn.
The older horses have to give 11lb to the Classic generation over 10 furlongs at this time of year, but that may favour the older horses.
The other element that may be at play here is the propensity for unlucky-looking losers to be over-bet the next time they race. The Gurkha looked unlucky in the St James’s Palace Stakes, he was well back in the field from early, he had to make up a lot of ground in the home straight to finish second, to get as close as he got to Galileo Gold. And that was after he had to be switched to the outside to come around Awtaad.
However, he was beaten by over a length by Galileo Gold in the St James’s Palace Stakes. He may have been closer with a cleaner run through the race, but he still may not have beaten the winner. He is priced up as if he would have.
Aidan O’Brien obviously has no peers when it comes to the top races, and, specifically, he has an enviable record in the Eclipse, with four winners – Giant’s Causeway, Hawk Wing, Oratario and So You Think – since the turn of the millennium. The Gurkha is the correct favourite for this year’s race, but he just may be a little shorter than he should be.
By contrast, Hawkbill may be a little longer than he should be at around 11.0. Of course, Hawkbill is a three-year-old, and all the difficulties that the Classic generation face, as outlined above, apply to the Godolphin horse as well. However, it’s all about the odds. You can allow for a lot more when you are trading at 11.0 than you can when you are trading at 2.0.
And Hawkbill has even more to find on official ratings than The Gurkha has, but he is generally an under-rated horse, and he has a really progressive profile.
He has now won his last five races: his last three last season and his first two this season. On his debut this term, in a listed race at Newmarket on Guineas weekend, he was really weak in the market before running out an impressive winner from Abdon, who was sent off as joint favourite for the Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot on his next run.
Then on his latest run, in the (same) Tercentenary Stakes at Royal Ascot, Hawkbill was allowed go off at a bigger price than fellow Godolphin horse Prize Money, yet he beat him on merit.
There was a lot to like about that performance. The Kitten’s Joy colt was a little keener than ideal through the early stages of the race just behind the pace, yet when he and Prize Money moved on from the other Godolphin horse in the race Race Day at the top of the home straight, it always looked likely that Hawkbill was going to prevail. And he did, by just over a length, with the pair of them nicely clear, and the winner left the impression that he had more in hand than that.
Of course, he is going to have to step up from that if he is going to win an Eclipse. The Tercentenary Stakes is a good race, it is a high-class race, but it is still only a Group 3 contest. The Eclipse is Group 1 deep water.
Even on official ratings, a 4lb hike for his Royal Ascot win still leaves Charlie Appleby’s colt with 11lb and 12lb to find with the top-rated horses. That is not insignificant.
However, it is probable that we have not got near the bottom of Hawkbill’s talent yet. He continues to improve, he continues to surprise us and, it appears, he continues to surprise his connections.
He is proven on easy ground, he is very good on easy ground, and 10 furlongs appears to be his optimum trip. Also, he free-going style of racing should be well suited to Sandown, a track at which it can be difficult to come from very far back. There are pacemakers and potential pacemakers in the race, so hopefully William Buick will be able to adopt an early position just behind them and travel into the home straight before kicking on the run to the two-furlong pole.
It may all be a bit much for Hawkbill, he may not be up to this class, but he may be, and the 11.0 that is available about him looks big.
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