DONN McCLEAN LANDS 11.0 ECLIPSE WINNER LAST WEEK: Donn’s recommended bet last week was HAWKWILL at 11.0 on BETDAQ – winner of the Eclipse at Sandown !!!
There are several intriguing strands running through today’s Darley July Cup at Newmarket. There’s the Twilight Son v Magical Memory strand for starters, Round Six in their private duel. The will-Magical-Memory-prevail strand, as he did in the Duke of York Stakes, and the or-will-it-be-Twilight-Son-again strand (implied), as it was on the other four occasions on which they have met.
There’s the Quiet Reflection strand, the three-year-old-against-the-elders strand, which dovetails nicely with the filly-against-the-boys strand. One female against 17 males. She is the Commonwealth Cup winner though, and the only other Commonwealth Cup winner, Muhaarar, won the July Cup too.
There’s also the Air Force Blue strand, the can-he-re-discover-his-juvenile-form strand, and that may be the most fascinating strand of all.
If you had run this race in April, before Air Force Blue had finished 12th of 13 behind Galileo Gold in the 2000 Guineas, Aidan O’Brien’s colt would probably have been favourite. Then again, if you had run this race in April, it wouldn’t have been the July Cup would it?
There is no denying the War Front colt’s talent. He was beaten just once in five runs as a juvenile, when he finished second to the more experienced Buratino in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot on just his second run. After that, he won his next three, Phoenix Stakes, National Stakes, Dewhurst Stakes, three Group 1s, rat-tat-tat.
He was favourite for the Guineas after that, he was on top of the market all through the winter and he was odds-on on the day, but he just didn’t fire at Newmarket. It might have been the distance, he has so much speed that it was never certain that he was going to be able to stretch out to a mile, but he was really beaten before the distance became an issue. It might have been the easy ground. Or it might have been just that it wasn’t his day.
The ground was on the easy side again at The Curragh three weeks later and, once again, Air Force Blue’s wheels spun. He could never gain enough traction form the ground, he could never use his speed.
He gets the chance to use his speed today, and the support for him in the market tells you that he is probably pleasing his trainer at home. But it will be some training feat by Aidan O’Brien if he can get Air Force Blue to win the July Cup.
The perennial champion trainer has won the July Cup three times, twice with three-year-olds: Stravinsky in 1999 and Mozart in 2001. But Stravinsky and Mozart were different to Air Force Blue. Stravinsky had finished fourth in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot on his last run before the July Cup, when he shaped as if a drop down from seven furlongs to six would suit, while Mozart had won the same Jersey Stakes.
Air Force Blue was a better juvenile than either Stravinsky or Mozart, but he also has more to prove at this stage of his career than either. He could win the July Cup, Aidan O’Brien can achieve things that few racehorse trainers can achieve. However, if he can win the July Cup today with Air Force Blue, that achievement will be up there with the very best of his career.
You would love to see it happen, for all the reason, but, from a betting perspective, Air Force Blue is short, and it may be that Limato offers better value at just a slightly shorter price.
Limato has a little to prove now as well, he was beaten the last time we saw him, the only time we have seen him so far this year, but he doesn’t have as much to prove as Air Force Blue does. Unbeaten in four runs over six furlongs as a juvenile, Henry Candy’s horse progressed significantly again last season at three, winning a Group 3 contest and finishing second behind the afore-mentioned Muhaarar in the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot before cutting loose in the Group 2 Park Stakes at Doncaster in September.
That was a monster performance. He travelled really well through his race, and he showed a brilliant turn of foot to come clear from high-class rivals like Markaz and Breton Rock, bouncing off the fast ground.
He has run just once this season, he could finish only fourth in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in May when he was sent off as favourite. However, the ground was just on the easy side of good that day, so easier than ideal for Limato, and it was run over a mile, the longest distance over which he had ever raced.
It was his first attempt at the trip and, while you can’t put your hand on your heart and say that he definitely didn’t see it out, you were also left with the impression that he would be better dropped back in trip. He was ridden defensively over a mile. Harry Bentley can be a lot more aggressive today over six furlongs.
Candy did cling to the idea of making a miler out of Limato, perhaps because he already had Twilight Son for the big six-furlong races. However, an attempt at the Queen Anne at Royal Ascot scuppered by the rain, the trainer has obviously concluded that Limato has too much pace to try to stretch him out. Best to play to your strengths, train him for speed, campaign him at his natural distances. The fact that he is dropping Limato back down in trip, even though it means that he has to take on Twilight Son, is significant.
The July Course’s sharp six may be sharper than ideal for a horse who stays seven, but the Tagula gelding has so much pace, and there should be so much early pace in the race, that he really shouldn’t get done for speed. The ground is key though, a fast-run six furlongs on fast ground could be close to optimal for him.
There are other strands, like the Profitable strand, the can-he-be-as-effective-over-six-furlongs-as-he-is-over-five strand. Clive Cox has done it before, he won this race with Lethal Force in 2013. The difference, however, is that Lethal Force was a six-furlong horse, he was going to Newmarket on the back of victory in the Diamond Jubilee over six furlongs, not – as Profitable is – in the King’s Stand Stakes over five.
There are the Cotai Glory and Suedois strands, the can-they-outrun-big-odds strands, to which the answer is probably yes, and there is the sentimentalist’s strand, the we-know-that-Sole-Power-is-nine-but-he-has-his-ground strand.
Everything into the mix, however, and, from a betting perspective, the most important strand is the where’s-the-value strand, and that strand might just start and end with Limato.
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
