DONN McCLEAN: The Ebor is a race in which Irish-trained horses have done well in recent years. Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott (yes, it’s still a flat race) sent out Sesenta and Dirar respectively to win it in 2009 and 2010, while Johnny Murtagh won it with Mutual Regard in 2014. So three of the last seven winners were trained in Ireland.
Team Ireland – such as it exists away from Rio – took a bit of a bashing when Ivan Grozny was ruled out on Friday morning. Willie Mullins’ horse had been ante post favourite for a while, he would have had a favourite’s chance. Alas, you can’t run in an Ebor when you are lame. Ivan Grozny will have to wait for another day.
Heartbreak City is there though, as is Quick Jack, both representing Tony Martin. Heartbreak City won the two-mile handicap at this meeting last year, and you can be sure that his trainer has had the Ebor at least in the back of his mind since then.
The Lando gelding was well beaten in the Chester Cup in May, but he had won a handicap at Cork impressively on his previous run on heavy ground, and he is two for two over hurdles since Chester. A flat handicap rating of 103 is not obviously lenient, but he is in the form of his life and Adam McNamara takes off a useful 5lb.
Quick Jack is seven now, so older than ideal – last year’s winner Litigant was the first horse aged older than six to win the Ebor since Sea Pigeon won it as a nine-year-old in 1979 – but he is a high-class handicapper both on the flat and over hurdles, as he proved when he won the Galway Hurdle last year and when he finished third in the Cesarewitch last October off a mark of 101.
He was well beaten in the Ebor last year, and he was well behind Heartbreak City in that race at Cork in March, but he was only beaten three lengths in the Chester Cup since then in May from a wide draw off today’s mark of 103.
He was beaten in the Galway Hurdle on his most recent run, but you can be sure that his trainer will have him well-primed, and Oisín Orr is good value for his 7lb claim.
Antiquarium is a worthy favourite. He was brave in winning the Northumberland Plate, and Sergeant Cecil proved in 2005 that the Northumberland Plate winner could go on and win the Ebor. No horse has done the Pitmen’s Derby/Ebor double since, but only two have tried.
Two worries about Antuquarium: one, he probably wouldn’t want the ground to get too soft, and two, he seemed to need every yard of the extended two miles on Newcastle’s all-weather track to get up to beat Seamour. The Godolphin horse is 6lb higher today, and he is short enough at around 8.0.
Shrewd is progressive at the age of six, he goes well at the track and he won a handicap over the course and distance in June, while Seismos could out-run big odds.
However, the value of the race could lie with the 18.0 or thereabouts that is available about Top Tug. Formerly a smart performer for Sir Michael Stoute, the Halling gelding did not sparkle in six runs last season, but he seems to have re-discovered his form since he has joined Alan King this term.
Winner of a handicap on Polytrack at Lingfield off a mark of 95 in April in his debut for King, he stepped forward from that to finish third behind Barsanti and Oasis Fantasy over a mile and a half at York in May.
The form of that race is strong. Barsanti won a handicap at York on Friday off a 9lb higher mark and is sure to go up again next week, while Oasis Fantasy is now rated 10lb higher than he was then, and fifth-placed Fire Fighting is now rated 5lb higher than he was then.
Top Tug gets to race today off the same mark of 99, and that gives him a chance.
He was well beaten in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot on his next run, but he ran a cracker last time, back at York, to finish third to Yorkidding over a mile and a half.
The fact that he goes well at York is an obvious asset to carry into the Ebor. Course form on the Knavesmire is more important than it is at most other tracks. It also means that his astute trainer has probably had the Ebor in mind for him for a while. He should be primed to run a big race today.
As well as that, has never raced beyond a mile and a half before, but there is a chance that the step up to a mile and six furlongs will bring about further improvement. He races like he will get further than a mile and a half, and he is by Halling and a half-brother to Worth A King’s, who won over a mile and six furlongs on the flat, and over two and a half miles over hurdle
He is nicely-drawn in stall four, he won’t mind any more rain, and Alan King has his flat horses in top form these days, as evidenced by Oceane’s game win in a good handicap at York on Wednesday. The Barbury Castle trainer has had two winners from his last three runners, and none of his 12 runners in the last two weeks have finished outside the first five. Top Tug could further enhance that record.
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
