DONN MCCLEAN: There is always a trade-off in these valuable, competitive handicap chases, like Saturday’s BB Chase at Kempton: experience versus potential.
The more experienced a horse is, the better equipped he is to deal with the rigours of a big-field, competitive handicap chase. Conversely, the less experienced he is, the more unexposed he is, the more potential he has for progression and the greater the likelihood is that he can out-perform the market’s and the handicapper’s evaluation of his ability.
Take Thomas Brown, for instance. He is young and he is lightly-raced. He is just seven years old and he had just 12 races in his life. And, crucially, just three of those races have been over fences.
There is a chance that it will all be a bit much for him in the BB Chase on Saturday, he and 15 rivals hurtling down over the first three fences over Kempton’s King George course and distance, fighting for room at his fences and for position on the track.
But he is also a horse of significant potential, and there is a chance that he has been under-rated by the handicapper and the market. He progressed nicely through last season as a novice hurdler mainly over two and a half miles and, while you would ideally have liked to have seen him run a little better at Cheltenham or at Aintree over three miles over hurdles last spring, he has started off this season well over fences.
He won well at Ascot on his chasing bow in November over two miles and three furlongs. Returned to Ascot for his second run over fences, he ran well in a Grade 2 contest over two miles and five furlongs, keeping on nicely all the way to the line to take second place behind Le Mercurey.
He would only have been third if Amore Alato hadn’t fallen at the last fence that day, but it was still a good run in just his second chase. Le Mercurey is a talented horse, while third-placed Out Sam has won twice since and is now rated 139.
Last time at Doncaster, stepped up to three miles for the first time over fences, Thomas Brown stayed on well to win nicely, beating the useful and then 141-rated Vintage Vinnie by 10 lengths.
The handicapper raised Harry Fry’s horse just 2lb for that, which was more than fair. It leaves him on a mark of 140, still 2lb lower than his current mark over hurdles and 5lb lower than his peak. Given his youthfulness and his relative lack of experience over fences, he has the potential to go a fair way beyond that mark.
There are other elements in his favour. Firstly, while he has never run at Kempton before, he does go well right-handed. In three runs going in that direction under Rules, he has won twice – once over fences and once over hurdles – and finished second once.
Secondly, Harry Fry has his horses in top form. He has sent out 12 runners in the last two weeks: three winners, four seconds and three thirds. This contrasts sharply with the quiet spell he was enduring when Thomas Brown last ran, and that augurs really well.
Thirdly, Thomas Brown’s prominent style of racing is well suited to Kempton. It is difficult to make ground from the rear at Kempton unless the ground is very soft and/or the pace is very fast. There should be good pace on Saturday, and the ground will not be quick, but the percentage call is still to be handy.
Add to that the fact that the excellent Noel Fehily is on board again and that Thomas Brown will race for the first time over fences in cheekpieces, which he wore to success over hurdles, and all looks set for a big run from the Sir Harry Lewis gelding. Fry and Fehily won this race with Opening Batsman – who also lines up on Saturday, and who had a similar profile to Thomas Brown’s current profile when he won the race in 2013 – so they know what is required. Odds of around 9.2 are fair.
There are sufficient question marks around favourite Champagne West to allow us lay him. Philip Hobbs’ horse is a talented horse for sure, and he still has potential for further progression, but he is a fashionable horse, he is rarely missed by the market. He has raced 12 times in his career, and he has been sent off at 7/2 or shorter 10 times. He is short again on Saturday.
There are three main imponderables: he is stepping up in trip, he is racing at Kempton for the first time, and his jumping has let him down in each of his last three runs.
He may well get the trip, and there is stamina in his pedigree, but he was well beaten in the Albert Bartlett Hurdle in 2014 on his only attempt at three miles as a hurdler, and he has pace. It could be that he is a specialist two-and-a-half-mile horse.
He could also be a specialist Cheltenham horse. He has run his best races there. He has never run at Kempton, and he fell in the Scilly Isles Chase at Sandown last season on the only occasion on which he has gone right-handed over fences.
His jumping has to be a concern now. That fall in the Scilly Isles Chase was on his final run last season. On his first run this term, in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham, he made a bad mistake at the fence in front of the stands, and he was always playing catch-up after that. Then on his most recent run, back at Cheltenham at the end of January, he made another bad mistake down the back straight, from which Richard Johnson did remarkably well to recover. The horse didn’t though, and Johnson pulled him up two fences later. So he has made one serious jumping error in each of his last three races.
This is a recovery mission for Champagne West, and it is not ideal that he is going into such a competitive contest, at a track at which he has never run, with concerns surrounding his jumping. He is probably shorter than he should be at 6.2 but, in a highly competitive race in which you can make a case for plenty of his rivals, it might be an idea to lay him for a place at just over even money.
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£25 IN FREE BETS
