DONN McCLEAN: You can look at tomorrow’s Celebration Chase at Sandown in lots of different ways. You can say, Sprinter Sacre beat Un De Sceaux and everything else at Cheltenham, he is not the horse that he was when he was in his pomp, but he is not too far off and, anyway, not too far off the real Sprinter Sacre is good enough to beat most two-mile chasers.
Or you can say, Un De Sceaux is not most two-mile chasers.
You can say, Un De Sceaux is obviously very good, but he is at his very best when the ground is soft. He just wasn’t able to operate at Cheltenham on the better ground, he just wasn’t able to go with Sprinter Sacre when he quickened around the home turn, he wasn’t able to match him for speed on the ground. The ground at Sandown will be similar to the ground at Cheltenham, and that will suit Sprinter Sacre and won’t suit Un De Sceaux.
Or you can say, true, Un De Sceaux is very good on soft ground, but he is also very good on good ground. Didn’t he win an Arkle on good ground? Willie Mullins’ horse is just a very talented two-mile steeplechaser. And there is a little bit of rain forecast for Sandown on Friday night anyway.
So how come Un De Sceaux got beaten in the Champion Chase?
It may have been down to the fact that he didn’t get to lead. He seemed happy enough at the time to allow Special Tiara bowl along in front of him, but he may not have been. It may have had an affect on him, he just may not have been overly happy following something. At best, he wasn’t used to it.
Un De Sceaux won two bumpers in France before he joined Willie Mullins and, on both occasions, the form book says that he made all. He won seven races over hurdles for Willie Mullins, he is seven for seven over the smaller obstacles, and on each occasion he has made all.
He has completed six times over fences and he has won five times, making all the running on each occasion. He has been beaten just once when he has completed over fences, last time in the Champion Chase, on the only occasion on which he settled in second place through the early stages of the race. It may not be just down to coincidence.
It is in Un De Sceaux’s favour that Special Tiara has been re-routed from Sandown to Punchestown. Unless Solar Impulse or Ulck Du Lin is sent forward as a Golden Freeze-esque spoiler – and it is highly unlikely that either will be – then it is probable that Un De Sceaux will have it to himself up front. And that would be a significant positive.
Sandown’s chase track is a front-runner’s track. It should be ideal for a front-runner with Un De Sceaux’s talent.
You can point to his jumping, you can say that your heart is in your mouth every time he leaves the ground. But that’s what makes him so exciting, that’s a big component of his talent.
The two-mile chasers are the sprinters of National Hunt racing. The live close to the edge, they have to look to cut corners if they are to be as good as they are, if they are to be as fast as they are. They have to be slick and fast at their fences, and accurate. One mistake and you’re on the floor.
Moscow Flyer was like that, and he was one of the best two-mile chasers that this generation has known. Un De Sceaux is like that. And for all his perceived jumping frailties, he has only fallen twice in his life.
Another view is that he will get into a lovely rhythm out in front, that he will jump the first two fences and turn at the top bend in front. That he will wheel down over the fence on the side of the track and turn into the back straight with a four-length lead. That he will zing down over the first three fences in the back straight, over the water jump and over the Railway Fences. It could be some spectacle. The race could be over by the time he turns out of the back straight and faces up to the Pond Fence.
You can say that this is not a two-horse race, that Dodging Bullets comes into it. He is a high-class two-mile chaser, a previous Champion Chase winner, who has had a really light campaign, who is one for one at Sandown and whose trainer’s horses are in top form now. And that would be a legitimate point of view. Dodging Bullets could be over-priced at 16.0 or 17.0.
But Un De Sceaux also looks over-priced at 2.6. You can easily argue that Un De Sceaux and Sprinter Sacre should be closer together in the betting than they are, that the disparity between them is too great, and you can point to the fact that Nicky Henderson’s horse are not in great form. So perhaps the best course of action is to lay Sprinter Sacre at around 2.1 if you can.
The best course of action in the B365 Gold Cup may simply be to back The Young Master at 10.0 or so.
Neil Mulholland’s horse has a lot of the attributes that you look for in a big staying handicap chase contender. Just a seven-year-old, he has raced just nine times over fences in his life, so he still has scope for progression as a staying chaser. But we know that he can operate in these big-field handicaps. His record over fences in fields of 13 or more reads 11U43.
He put up one of the best performances of his career last time when he finished third behind Un Temps Pour Tout and Holywell in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. They were two well-handicapped horses, and he had another well-handicapped horse in Morning Assembly behind him in fourth place.
It was mildly surprising that the handicapper actually dropped him 1lb for that run, from 149 to 148, but you can be sure that his trainer will take that and move on.
Also, The Young Master should be even better going right-handed than he was going left. He has a tendency to jump to his right, and he won big handicap chases last season at Wincanton and at Ascot, both, like Sandown, right-handed tracks. And he could improve for the step up in trip today. He was staying on well at the end of the Cheltenham race, leaving the impression that he was worth a try over further.
He will love the ground, he has a nice racing weight of 11st 1lb, and Sam Waley-Cohen knows him well now and takes off a useful 3lb. It is obviously a highly competitive race, but The Young Master could go close to winning it.
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