8/1 PROFITABLE TIP: DONN McCLEAN was right on the money with PROFITABLE WON 8/1 in last week’s Temple Stakes at Haydock. Don’t miss his views on this weekend’s racing.
You are usually looking for a four-year-old or a five-year-old for the John Of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock on Saturday afternoon. It is a race that usually goes to a member of the younger brigade, a progressive horse like Home Of The Brave or Adaay or Convey. Seven of the last eight winners were either four or five.
And it may be that the younger brigade will prevail on Saturday afternoon too. Home Of The Brave was a high-class three-year-old last season, a seven-furlong horse, and he looked good in winning a listed race at Leicester on his debut this season. So good, in fact, that Godolphin bought him.
Convey might get a little closer to Hugo Palmer’s horse today than he did at Leicester, mind you. Sir Michael Stoute’s horse improved on that run to finish a slightly unlucky second behind Always Smile in the Listed Hambleton Stakes at York’s Dante meeting. He wore cheekpieces for the first time that day, and it is no surprise that he wears them again today. He can be tricky, but there is no doubting his talent, and the cheekpieces appeared to help him considerably last time.
Adaay is also a player. William Haggas’ horse beat Limato in the Sandy Lane Stakes on this card last year, so we know that he can go well at the track, even though he was well beaten in the Sprint Cup in September. He stepped forward from that Sandy Lane win to land the Group 2 Hungerford Stakes at Newbury in August. He was well beaten on his debut this season in the Group 2 Bet365 Mile at Sandown, but his trainer’s horses are in much better form now than they were then, and he is a classy individual who is one for one over seven furlongs.
However, it may be that the six-year-old So Beloved has been under-rated by the market. Only two horses in today’s race are older than him, but he is a high-class performer, and there is a good chance that we have not seen the best of him yet.
David O’Meara’s horse was a progressive five-year-old last season, he beat Here Comes When in the Group 3 Supreme Stakes at Goodwood in August, and he was only beaten a total of a length in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes at Newmarket in October.
However, the Dansili gelding probably put up the best performance of his career when he won the Listed Spring Trophy over today’s course and distance last month on his debut this season.
There was an awful lot to like about that performance. He showed nice early pace to adopt a handy position just behind the pace. He travelled well throughout, he travelled easily into the home straight and, when Daniel Tudhope asked him for his effort, he picked up impressively to put the race to bed, easing his way to a two-length victory.
That run on its own puts him right into the mix for this race, but he could be even better now. There are two main reasons for expecting that he can progress from his debut. Firstly, his trainer says that he is a big horse who is just filling his frame now. He could still be progressive physically, even at the age of six.
Secondly, the form book tells you that he usually progresses from his first run of the season to his second. He had been beaten on all four of his seasonal debuts before this year – he was winning for the first time on his seasonal debut at Haydock last month – but he has won on his second run of the season on three out of four occasions. His only defeat on his second run of the season to date was at Ascot, a track at which, the evidence suggests, he probably isn’t at his best.
He is back at Haydock now, a track at which he is two for two. Specifically, he is back over seven furlongs at Haydock, a course and distance over which he is two for two. Ground just on the easy side of good should be ideal, and he has a lovely draw in stall four, towards the inside rail and just inside the likely leader and biggest danger Home Of The Brave.
If he improves even a little from his seasonal debut – and there is every chance that he will – that should give him a big chance, and he could be the value of the race at around 6.0.
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BET 2.3pts win on each PASS MUSTER and TRIPLE EIGHT ((8.10 Musselburgh)