All week, the ante post market for today’s Racing Plus Chase has been dominated by Wyck Hill and Rolling Aces. Both progressive chasers, both potentially high-class, both potentially a fair way ahead of their handicap marks.
Wyck Hill’s chance was enhanced on Wednesday when news filtered through that he had been purchased by JP McManus. Not because horses run faster in the go-fast green and gold hoops than they do in any other silks, but because it meant that AP McCoy was going to be on board, and lots of horses do run faster for the champ than they do for anyone else. (Ref. unbeaten in 17 championships, soon to be 18.)
It is difficult to pick holes in Wyck Hill. There is very little not to like about him. He jumps well, he stays, he is progressive, and he showed in his last two races against Fill The Power and Katenko that he has guts a-plenty.
Of the top pair, however, Rolling Aces represents better value for me at respective odds. There is a small chance that people are getting carried away with the Katenko form with Wyck Hill. Here’s the theory: Wyck Hill beat Katenko by four lengths at Ascot, getting just 1lb. Katenko won his next two races impressively, and is now rated 22lb higher than he was for the Ascot race. Wyck Hill gets to race today off just a 7lb higher mark compared to the Ascot race, ergo Wyck Hill could be a really well-handicapped horse.
It is true, he could be a really well-handicapped horse, but not because Katenko is now rated 22lb higher. There is no question that Katenko has improved dramatically since Ascot. He is a seven-year-old staying chaser, the type that can progress through the stratosphere when they happen to get on that upward curve. When he won last time at Cheltenham, he recorded a Racing Post Rating of 162, coincidentally exactly 22lb higher than the Racing Post Rating that he recorded in the Ascot race.
If Katenko was in today’s race, he would be giving Wyck Hill 16lb and he would be challenging him for favouritism. If Katenko was in the race and giving Wyck Hill just 1lb, as he was at Ascot, he would be 7/4 favourite.
There is no doubt that Wyck Hill is progressive in his own right, he has raced just six times over fences and he looked to be on an upward curve even before Ascot. However, he is nine years old, and there is just a chance that his rate of progression may not be as upwardly steep as Katenko’s, or as Rolling Aces’, for that matter. Also, he has run twice at Kempton, and he has been beaten on both occasions. There is a chance that three miles around the Sunbury track on drying ground may not present the stamina test that suits the David Bridgwater-trained horse so well. Remember, he is on track for the Grand National after this, possibly the Gold Cup if he wins today. He is all stamina.
There is at least as much to like about Rolling Aces as there is about Wyck Hill, possibly a little more. Like Wyck Hill, he has won his last two races. The Newbury race that he won on his penultimate run has worked out to be one of the most solid handicap chases run in Britain or Ireland this term. Runner-up Merry King was beaten just a nose by course specialist Cannington Brook in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock on his next run off a 6lb higher mark and is now rated 11lb higher than he was at Newbury. Third-placed Handy Andy won a good handicap chase back at Newbury next time and is now 8lb higher. Fourth-placed Listen Boy won a novice chase on his sole subsequent run. Fifth-placed Bennys Mist won a handicap chase at Taunton on his next run. Even 12th-placed Godsmejudge finished second in the Classic Chase at Warwick on his next run, then won a novices’ chase back at Warwick, and is now rated 11lb higher.
Rolling Aces himself came out and won well at Wincanton next time, galloping on well once his stamina kicked in over an inadequate two miles and five furlongs to beat Opening Batsman, who also won on his next start and who re-opposes today. Even on 7lb better terms (not including the rider’s claim), however, it is difficult to see Harry Fry’s horse reversing placings.
Paul Nicholls’ horse has been raised another 11lb for that, so he is now 19lb higher than he was at Newbury, and that is a significant hike, no question. However, he is only seven (two years younger than Wyck Hill), he has raced just three times over fences in his life (three fewer than Wyck Hill) and just seven times in total under Rules (seven fewer than Wyck Hill). He has more scope for progression than the favourite.
Also, the fact that he had the pace to win over two miles and five furlongs at Wincanton, albeit on heavy ground, suggests that he should have the pace for Kempton’s sharp flat track. By the same token, however, he should improve for stepping back up to three miles. Three miles on a flat right-handed track (he has won twice at Wincanton) is probably his optimum. As well as all that, he has Ruby Walsh – absent for his last run at Wincanton – for company again. He is rock solid and he represents a little bit of value at around 5.4.
It is not a two-horse race, mind you. Same Difference was interesting, although his price has gone overnight since he became the Pricewise horse. Old-stager, course specialist and dual winner of this race Nacarat is interesting on the drying ground, as is Roberto Goldback, a distance behind Wyck Hill and Katenko in the Ascot race, but back on goodish ground now for the first time since he scuppered the Grand National plan by winning at Ascot in November on his first run for Nicky Henderson.
However, Duke Of Lucca may be the most interesting of those available at bigger prices. Philip Hobbs’ horse finished second, nine lengths behind the winner Roberto Goldback in that Ascot race, but he is now 8lb better off. Also, he didn’t have the best of luck in that race, he was hampered at the fourth last fence just as the pace was increasing, and he should be able to get closer to Roberto today.
More than that, however, he was a nicely progressive chaser towards the end of last season as he began to get his jumping together. Second in the Pendil Chase on this card last year, and at his best on good ground, it is probable that Philip Hobbs has had this race in mind for him since the start of the season. The Hobbs horses are flying these days, and this is a race in which the trainer does particularly well, with two winners and four places to his credit in the race in the last 10 years.
Richard Johnson rides Quinz instead of Duke Of Lucca, but Richard Johnson always rides Quinz (he rode him when he was pulled up on his seasonal return at Ascot last term in a race in which his stable companion Balthazar King finished fifth) and Tom O’Brien, who rode Duke Of Lucca last time at Ascot, is a more than capable deputy.
Duke Of Lucca is back down to a mark of 140, which is 4lb below his peak and 9lb below his peak over hurdles. There could be a big handicap in him off this mark, and it could be today. He also looks over-priced at around 14.
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