I usually do my ante post analysis on a Tuesday afternoon. It’s a good time to do it, you have reviewed the previous weekend’s racing by Tuesday afternoon, you have the five-day declarations in for the following Saturday, and you can plan accordingly.
This week, unusually, there were five horses that I was considering backing ante post. Tataniano for the Champion Chase, before he ran in Saturday’s Tingle Creek Chase, was one; Bostons Angel for the Gold Cup, before he ran in the Future Stars Intermediate Chase on Friday, was another; First Lieutenant for the RSA Chase, before he ran in Sunday’s Drinmore Chase, was another.
I dodged a bullet with Tataniano, because it was a marginal call not to back him at 16/1 for the Champion Chase. It just shows you, the fragility of the racehorse, and the minefield that is ante post betting.
It wasn’t a positive when Paul Nicholls declared Kauto Stone for the Tingle Creek as well as Tataniano, the trainer may have been concerned that Andy Stewart’s horse wasn’t sparkling for some reason even on Thursday. That said, he may have done it solely because of the doubt over the ground (good is good for Tataniano, soft is good for Kauto Stone), and the champion trainer isn’t averse to having several goes at the Tingle Creek in any one renewal anyway. They found a tiny tear in Tataniano’s near fore tendon this morning, apparently, so, not only is he out of the Tingle Creek, he is out for the entire season. As well as ante post punters, it must be gutting for connections.
It does make the Champion Chase market even more porous than it was. Sizing Europe will be 10 next March, Big Zeb will be 11. Both are obviously top class, but two-milers do tend to have their speed diluted as they get older, and Moscow Flyer is the only horse aged older than 10 to win the race since Skymas in 1977. We haven’t seen Finian’s Rainbow yet this season, and he still has to prove that he can step up out of novice class, ditto Realt Dubh, Captain Chris and Wishfull Thinking are both probably better over further than the minimum trip, Master Minded and Somersby are going down the three-mile route, Noble Prince is a two-and-a-half miler, Kauto Stone is a two-and-a-half-to-three-miler and probably needs soft ground. It’s head-scratch time. Which is why Tataniano was looking like a bet at 16/1.
I decided not to back Bostons Angel for the Gold Cup today because I didn’t think that he could really enhance his Gold Cup claims too significantly today, and because there was a big chance that he would fall short of general expectations. Even if he had beaten Golan Way and Benbane Head today, by how much do you think bookmakers would have cut his Gold Cup odds? Not much, probably.
If you thought that he was a lively Gold Cup outsider before today – and I did – then I wouldn’t go changing my opinion because of today’s defeat. There was an awful lot against him today. Three miles and half a furlong on an easy track like Sandown, a track at which the fences come at you hard and fast, on goodish ground, is a long way removed from Bostons Angel’s optimum conditions. Also, with Quinz and Golan Way in the race, with so much pace, he was held up in behind, which isn’t really his style of running.
Jessica Harrington’s horse is at his best when he is up in the van, just behind the pace, fighting with rivals, rolling up his sleeves, repelling challengers in a slugfest. Speed is not his thing. Give him an extended three and a quarter miles at Cheltenham, where he has won an RSA Chase, up and down hills, terrier-like, survival of the fittest, the bravest, and he will be a different proposition.
As well as that, after his unseat in the JNwine.com Champion Chase, this was effectively his seasonal debut. He was rusty at the start of the race, it took him a while to find his rhythm over his fences, and, even at that, it looked like he was coming with a race-winning challenge around the home turn before he probably ran out of race-fitness, against two race-fit rivals.
Of course, an intermediate chase at Sandown in which the first two home are Golan Way and Benbane Head is a long way removed from a Gold Cup, and Bostons Angel is going to have to step up a couple of notches mighty sharpish if he is to manoeuvre himself into a position from which he can challenge, but that may come in time. In the immediate term, it is easy to forgive him this run today, and the 50/1 that one firm is shouting for the Gold Cup is too big.
I haven’t backed First Lieutenant for the RSA Chase yet. I’m still thinking about it, he is classy, he is tough, he is built to jump fences, he has Cheltenham Festival form, and he is favourite for Sunday’s Drinmore Chase, with Davy Russell having chosen to ride him in front of Bog Warrior. However, in my guts I just think that best odds of 12/1 about him for the Cheltenham race are just about right, not much better than right.
I have backed Voler La Vedette for the Hatton’s Grace Hurdle, mind you, and she still looks value at 5/2 now that Thousand Stars is out. She should be favourite for the race in my book, she should be a shorter price than Mourad. She finished two lengths in front of Willie Mullins’s horse in the race last year, when they finished third and fourth respectively behind Hurricane Fly and Solwhit, and she is 2lb better off with him now, the mares’ allowance in Ireland having been increased from 5lb to 7lb this season.
As well as that, Mourad is probably at his best over three miles on good ground, whereas Colm Murphy’s mare is probably at her best over two and a half miles on soft, which is what she will have on Sunday. Also, she is proven at the track, and she proved her wellbeing with a hugely impressive performance in landing the Grade 2 Lismullen Hurdle on her debut this term. Murphy resisted the temptation to run her in the Morgiana Hurdle after that, deciding to keep her fresh for Sunday, which was a good decision, given that she is almost certainly better over two and a half miles than she is over two. She has had a run, Mourad is making his seasonal debut.
The Real Article is a danger, he looks like he will get two and a half miles, although you never know for sure until they try it, and Mikael D’Haguenet shaped with some promise behind Voler La Vedette in the Lismullen Hurdle, but 5/2 is too big about the mare in receipt of 7lb. I wouldn’t be surprised if she replaced Mourad as favourite before 1.50 on Sunday.
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