Interesting stat: in the nine renewals of the Epsom Derby since 2001 – when Galileo won it as the lone Ballydoyle gunman – in which Aidan O’Brien has had more than one representative, the most strongly-fancied of the Ballydoyle contingent finished in front of his stable companions just three times.
That’s all. Just three out of nine.
Those three years? 2005, when Gypsy King finished fifth behind Motivator, but in front of his three stable companions, including subsequent Eclipse and Irish Champion Stakes winner Oratorio; 2007, when runner-up Eagle Mountain was considered by the market to be marginally superior to Archipenko and significantly superior to subsequent Irish Derby winner Soldier Of Fortune; and 2009, when Derby favourite Fame And Glory beat everything except Sea The Stars.
In 2003, Derby runner-up The Great Gatsby was thought by the market to be just the third best Ballydoyle runner, same in 2006, when Derby third Dylan Thomas was allowed go off at 20/1, and same again in 2008, Derby fifth Washington Irving was thought to be just the third best horse from Ballydoyle. In 2010, Derby runner-up At First Sight was a 100/1 shot, 40 times the price of his stable companion Jan Vermeer, while last year, Treasure Beach, who went down by just a head to Pour Moi, was a 25/1 shot, the outsider of four Aidan O’Brien-trained colts.
Even in 2002, when O’Brien last won the Derby, he won it with High Chaparral, a 7/2 shot, who beat his stable companion, the 9/4 favourite Hawk Wing, into second place.
It is something of a coincidence that this year, on the 10th anniversary of High Chaparral’s Derby, there are similarities between Team Ballydoyle then and Team Ballydoyle now. Hawk Wing didn’t quite win the Guineas in 2002, but he almost did, he went down by just a neck to another stable companion Rock Of Gibraltar, who raced out of eye-shot for a little while on the far side, and that was after looking the bees’ knees as a juvenile, winning three of his four races, including the Group 1 National Stakes.
Like Camelot, Hawk Wing had never been beyond a mile before he passed the four-furlong pole in the 2002 Derby. Unlike Camelot, there was a fairly significant worry about his ability to get a mile and a half, especially a truly-run one on the easy ground that prevailed at Epsom on Derby day 2002.
By contrast, there were no stamina worries concerning High Chaparral in 2002, just as there aren’t about Astrology in 2012. High Chaparral had gone down a traditional Derby trial route, winning the Ballysax Stakes and the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial before he lined up at Epsom. By Sadler’s Wells out of a Darshaan mare, he was certain to improve for the extra premium that the 12-furlong trip would place on stamina.
Actually, you could also draw a parallel between High Chaparral and Camelot as well, in that they both won the Racing Post Trophy, the quintessential Derby trial for juveniles. However, there was never any talk of High Chaparral running in the Guineas, he was always thought of as a stamina horse. So was Camelot. Until he ruined it all by winning the Guineas.
Before Camelot did that, the worry was that he wouldn’t have the pace to win a Classic over a mile. Now that he has, a new worry has emerged – that he won’t have the stamina for a mile and a half.
He probably will, his breeding screams middle distances, not mile. He will probably improve for stepping up to a mile and a half. But he will probably have to improve for it if he is to win the Derby. Early signs suggest that this year’s 2000 Guineas was not a vintage one. It was run in a time that was two seconds slower than the time that Homecoming Queen took to complete the same course and distance the following day in the 1000 Guineas on only marginally faster ground, and the third, fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh home in the race have all been well beaten since.
The Dee Stakes that Astrology won probably wasn’t a vintage renewal either, insofar as there are vintage renewals of the Dee Stakes. At worst, however, it is a recognised Derby trial, and it has produced Derby winners Kris Kin and Oath in the (relatively) recent past.
The impressive element about Astrology’s win in the Dee Stakes, mind you, was much more the manner of it than the substance of it. He led from flagfall and galloped around Chester’s tight turns and all the way to the line, putting 11 lengths between himself and his closest pursuer. Green and inexperienced in three races last year as a juvenile, he looked much more the professional article at Chester, and it is probable that he will improve for that experience again, as most three-year-old Ballydoyle Derby trialists do.
As well as that, his breeding (by Galileo out of a Prix Saint-Alary winner) suggests that he will appreciate a trip, and his racing style is consistent with that hypothesis, so he will almost certainly improve again for stepping up to a mile and a half. Ryan Moore can allow him bowl along out in front, he might even get a bit of a solo, and we saw the value of travelling up there in the van at Epsom today.
We also saw with Was (the headline writers can have hours of fun) in Friday’s Oaks that a Ballydoyle non-first-string can be thrust centre stage in the blink of an eye. If Camelot doesn’t land his Derby odds, don’t be surprised if Aidan O’Brien goes ahead and wins the thing anyway.
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