DONN McCLEAN: So it’s Lincoln day, and that means just one thing: that the Grand National can’t be far away.
It also means that the Flat (turf) season is upon us, and that, therefore, we are back to talking about the draw again.
At first glance, it looks like when the ground is soft for the Lincoln, you really want to be drawn low. There have been three renewals run on soft ground in the last 10 years, and those three were won by horses drawn, respectively, one, three and three.
However, in the second of those, when Levitate won from stall three and Global Village finished second from stall one, the next nine home were drawn 10 or higher. And in the third of them, when Ocean Tempest won from stall three, the five horses who chased him home had emerged from stalls 22, 20, 18, 14 and 16 respectively.
The draw may not be as relevant as we like to think and hopefully it will be factors other than position in the stalls that will determine the outcome of the Lincoln.
A lot of the fancied horses are drawn low. Lord Of The Land is drawn six, Bravo Zolo is drawn two, Udododontu is drawn 10, Express Himself is drawn seven.
Of the four of them, soft ground may not be ideal for two. And it is probably going to be soft. They are still calling it soft, good to soft in places, despite the fact that they didn’t get a lot of the rain that they were fearing, but there is more rain forecast.
Bravo Zolo is an interesting horse, and the fact that Jeremy Noseda has booked Ryan Moore for the ride is an obvious positive, but all his runs have been either on Polytrack or on good ground or faster. Two of his three runs on turf have been on food to firm ground and, on his one run on good ground, admittedly on his racecourse debut, he finished fourth and recorded the lowest rating of his career. At best, soft ground is an unknown.
Soft ground may not be ideal either for Udododontu. The Godolphin horse was second in a maiden on soft ground at Redcar as a juvenile, but all his good form since – most notably in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last year and in two runs at Meydan this spring – have been on fast ground.
Lord Of The Land handles soft ground all right. He won on heavy at Maisons-Laffitte as a three-year-old, and he won a conditions race at Fontainebleau on his final run in France last September on good to soft ground.
He is a fascinating contender, a full-brother to Lope De Vega who won five times for Andre Fabre in France and who is making his debut for David O’Meara. His strength in the ante post market tells you that he has been pleasing his new handler at home, but he is very short now at 5.5 or 6.0 to win a Lincoln.
His stable companion Birdman (pictured) is more interesting at a much bigger price. Birdman progressed at a ridiculous rate last season, his first with O’Meara. He won five of his first seven races, then finished third behind Mondialiste in a listed race at Pontefract, then was unlucky in a big one-mile handicap at York’s Ebor meeting.
He travelled well down the home straight out in the centre of the course that day, Philip Makin was just starting to ask him for his effort, when he was squeezed out and almost came down. He did well to stand up, Makin did well to stay on board, and the fact that he was able to finish off his race as well as he did tells you that he had plenty of energy left.
A close fifth in an Ascot handicap on his next run, he ran another cracker over the Lincoln course and distance last September. He stayed on well that day to take third place, just a length and a half behind the winner Bronze Angel, and he came home with just three shoes.
He was well beaten on each of his last two run last season, but you can forgive him those, his 12th and 13th runs of the season respectively.
The Lincoln has surely been his target since then, and he has a lot of the attributes that you look for in a Lincoln horse. By Danehill Dancer, he goes well on soft ground, he goes well at Doncaster, he stays a mile well and the hurly-burly of a big-field straight-mile handicap suits him well. His draw in stall 21 is not a negative, and there could be a big handicap in him off his mark of 106, with Josh Doyle taking off a useful 5lb.
He does not have the same potential for progression that some of his rivals have, but he is battle-hardened high-class handicapper, a six-year-old who has plenty left to give, like three of the last five winners of the Lincoln, and he could out-run odds of 21.0.
Smashing could be the answer to the Webster Cup at Navan. Road To Riches is obviously a top class performer, he ran a cracker again at Cheltenham to finish third behind Vautour and Valseur Lido in the Ryanair Chase and he is a worthy favourite.
However, he had to have hard a hard race at Cheltenham, and that was only 16 days ago. More than that, however, the Gigginstown House horse will be competing at Navan on ground that will probably be softer than ideal and over a trip that is probably sharper than ideal.
Smashing also ran in that Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham, but it never really happened for him, the ground was just too fast, and he was pulled up before the second last fence. He didn’t have an easy time of it, and there is a chance that he will still be feeling the effects, but at least he was spared a really hard race up the hill and to the line.
More importantly, Henry de Bromhead’s horse will probably be competing under his optimum conditions at Navan, over two and a half miles and on soft ground.
He has never run at Navan, and all his wins since his arrival from France have been at right-handed tracks. However, he won at left-handed Auteuil in France, and he ran a big race to finish fourth in the Coral Cup at left-handed Cheltenham two years ago.
He does have 7lb to find with Road To Riches on official ratings, but he gets 2lb from Noel Meade’s horse, which is a help. He was most impressive in winning his first three races this season, all three races run on heavy ground, all three over distances from two and a quarter miles to two and a half. He is a classy horse when he has his conditions.
This is not a two-horse race. Foxrock is rated just 1lb inferior to Smashing, he gets 5lb from him, and the Ted Walsh-trained gelding was only beaten a total of a length by Don Poli in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival. Winner of the Ten Up Chase as a novice at Navan, we know that he handles the track, and he has had a nice break since he finished fourth in the Irish Gold Cup in early February.
However, while Barry Connell’s horse has good form over two and a half miles, he may be at his best over three these days, and, if Smashing can get into a nice even rhythm out in front from early, it might be difficult for his rivals to catch him.
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