Your starting hypothesis in all of these big races should be that the favourite is too short. Start your analysis with the objective of proving that hypothesis, and you are probably starting down the right track.
You may not be able to prove the hypothesis, your conclusion may be that the favourite is actually over-priced, in which case the favourite is the bet. But you really should start out with the intention to take him on.
Take My Tent Or Yours in the big handicap hurdle at Newbury today. Can he win the race? Of course he can win the race, but he is a 5.6 shot and the next best of his 21 rivals is a 9.8 shot. So the market is saying that JP McManus’ horse has almost twice as good a chance of winning the race as his best rival has, and that may not be true.
My Tent Or Yours is a lovely horse. Only just beaten by The New One in the Aintree Bumper last April, he was impressive in beating the highly-talented Taquin Du Seuil at Ascot on his first run over hurdles in November, and he cruised to victory at Huntingdon last time. He is exciting, and he could be very good indeed.
That said, a rating of 149 for his handicap debut is not lenient. Taquin Du Seuil was given a rating of just 134 after the Ascot race, having gone down by just a length and three quarters to My Tent Or Yours, trying to give him 5lb. Jonjo O’Neill’s horse has obviously progressed since then, but he is still only rated 149 after having won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle by nine lengths. My Tent Or Yours has the same rating having won a Class 4 novices’ hurdle at Huntingdon.
Also, a rating of 149 puts Nicky Henderson’s horse into the race with 11st 2lb on his back, which is high for this race. Only one horse in the last eight renewals has carried more than 11st 1lb to victory, Essex, who was sent off the 9/1 fourth favourite for the Champion Hurdle on the back of that run. The current fourth favourite for this year’s Champion Hurdle is Rock On Ruby, who is rated 170, 21lb higher than My Tent Or Yours. Okay, so we’re not comparing like with like, we’re not even comparing apples with oranges, we’re into apples with tennis balls territory, but it gives you an idea of the magnitude of the task that My Tent Or Yours faces today. He may well win but, as things stand at present, given the information that we have this morning, 5.6 is no value at all.
Nicky Henderson’s horse is a lovely progressive young hurdler who could prove to be very good indeed, but he is just one of several progressive young hurdlers in the line-up.
Claret Cloak is another one. Emma Lavelle’s horse is not a novice, but he is only six, he is the same age as My Tent Or Yours, and he has run just four times over hurdles, just one more time than the favourite. He has at least as much potential for progression.
The son of Vinnie Roe was a really exciting novice last term, getting off the mark at Sandown in February, coming home 12 lengths clear of his rivals, and then staying on bravely to catch breakaway leaders North Cape and Bold Henry on the run-in and land a decent novice hurdle over today’s course and distance. So we know that he likes the track.
He has run just once this season, in a listed handicap hurdle at Ascot in November, when he put up a really encouraging performance. Weak enough in the market beforehand, he was ridden much more prominently than had been the case last season. Taking it up over the fourth last flight, he was there to be shot at as they rounded the home turn, but there was a lot to like about the manner in which he stuck to his task even after he was passed to retain third place.
The winner of that race, the highly-talented Raya Star, ran second to Oscar Whisky and Darlan in his two runs since, and is now rated 10lb higher than he was then, despite the fact that he didn’t have as much obvious scope for progression as the year-younger and much more lightly-raced Claret Cloak. Emma Lavelle’s horse was rewarded with just a 3lb hike from the handicapper, and that looks lenient.
He should come on for that run, the good to softish ground today should be ideal, and his mark of 136 – 13lb lower than My Tent Or Yours’ mark – allows him into the race with a lovely racing weight of 10st 3lb. He is a major player, and he looks the most over-priced horse in the race at around 14.
Mind you, because of My Tent Or Yours’ relatively short price, there are a couple of others who look over-priced. Swing Bowler is one, she is another lightly-raced young hurdler who won nicely at Musselburgh last time and has huge scope for progression. She is potentially progressive enough to withstand an 11lb hike, which she really needed in order to get into the race.
The other David Pipe horse, Ronaldo Des Mottes, caught the eye in running a lovely race at Sandown last time behind Lord Of House on his first run for almost two years. His mark of 144 is 7lb lower than his peak and, as long as he doesn’t bounce, he has a chance.
Cash And Go, Pearl Swan and Cotton Mill are all interesting, but all three are probably priced up just about right now at around 11 or less. By contrast, Court Minstrel would be interesting at around 16 if Evan Williams determined that the ground was good enough to allow him take his chance. He is 2lb out of the handicap, but it would be surprising if he didn’t prove to be significantly better than his effective mark of 133. Also, the evergreen Cause Of Causes could easily step forward again on better ground. He is often under-rated, and Gordon Elliott always said that he wanted better ground.
All that into the mix, Claret Cloak is the main bet, with Swing Bowler and Court Minstrel on side, and possibly Ronaldo Des Mottes and Cause Of Causes saving stakes.
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