This was going to be about Cannington Brook’s chance of winning the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock, about how he was still over-priced at 6.5. Course form, three for four at the track, dour stayer, form of his life, soft ground, Tom O’Brien three for four on him, best run of his life last time, 6lb hike not harsh. But the snows put the mockers on that one.
Then it was going to be about Somersby, probably won’t beat Sprinter Sacre, but 2.75 without the favourite more than fair, at his best at Ascot, good fresh, fantastic record in the race, Mick Channon’s horses in good form, Sanctuaire vulnerable. Alas, snowed off as well.
At least Naas has passed its inspection early this morning, and that’s good news. Aupcharlie should win the Grade 2 Woodlands Park Novice Chase on the face of it. He is a hugely exciting prospect. The Willie Mullins-trained gelding was generally disappointing over hurdles, but he has excelled in two runs over fences this season, which makes sense, given how fluently and accurately he jumps his obstacles.
However, he may not be bombproof today over three miles on really testing ground. He proved that he could cope with heavy ground when he beat Call The Police in his beginners’ chase at Gowran Park in November, but that was over two and a half miles. On his last run, in the Grade 1 Topaz Chase at Leopardstown, he was just outstayed on the run-in by his stable companion Back In Focus after taking it up over the last and, agonisingly, trading at 1.01 in-running.
You can’t really argue that he doesn’t stay three miles. He beat Texas Jack and Tofino Bay by 17 lengths and nine lengths at Leopardstown, and Back In Focus is a dour stayer for whom three miles would probably have been short enough. However, Aupcharlie is from a family of two-to-two-and-a-half-milers, and he never went beyond that trip in nine runs over hurdles and in bumpers. It may be that a stiff two and a half miles will be his optimum.
As well as that, with fellow staying novice chasers Back In Focus and Boston Bob also under Mullins’ care, you have to think that the Jewson Chase rather than the RSA Chase will be his Cheltenham focus. Therefore, in a sense, it is mildly surprising that he represents his stable in today’s race. You would have thought that one of the Graham Wylie horses would have lined up here and that Aupcharlie would have been kept for the Dr PJ Moriarty Chase at Leopardstown on Hennessy day. Maybe he will still run in the Moriarty. Maybe it’s all about match practice.
Aupcharlie is a huge talent, no question. He is one of the best jumpers of a fence among this year’s freshmen, he could go on to be a top class chaser, and he has to be on your mind for Cheltenham this year, in whichever race he ends up running. However, today’s race, a three-mile novice chase on ground that will surely be just about raceable, up the hill at Naas, could be much more about survival than it is about talent, and the Mullins horse is very short at around 1.44.
Lord Windermere is another talented novice. He always shaped more like a chaser than a hurdler last season, he ran really well in his first two chases this term, giving best only to two talented performers in Dylan Ross and Mikael D’Haguenet respectively, both of whom were much more experienced than Jim Culloty’s horse, and he stepped forward to beat Marasonnien in a beginners’ chase on the last day of Leopardstown’s Christmas Festival.
That was over two miles and three furlongs, and he is built and bred to get further. However, three miles on this ground is a big step into the unknown.
The value of the race for me is Tofino Bay. He has 27 lengths to find with Aupcharlie on their running in the Topaz Chase, but three miles on soft ground at Leopardstown is completely different to three miles on heavy ground at Naas. To put it into context, they covered Leopardstown’s three miles in a time of 6 mins 30secs in the Topaz. This race last year, the Woodlands Novice Chase, run on heavy ground, was run in a time of 7mins 10secs. That’s 40 seconds more, and that is huge.
Tofino Bay demonstrated his ability to cope with conditions similar to today’s when he won the Troytown Chase at Navan in November. That was a massive performance for a novice, with just two chases under his belt, to beat the experienced handicappers carrying 11st 4lb. Not only that, but his rider dropped his whip on the run-in, he probably won with a fair bit more in hand than the half-length winning margin, and the third horse, Glenquest, upheld the form nicely by winning a handicap at Punchestown on his next run off a 3lb higher mark, and by then finishing a good fourth in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown off a 9lb higher mark.
The Dessie Hughes-trained gelding was well beaten in the Topaz Chase, but he travelled and jumped well until the second last fence, before just getting left behind when they quickened. There shouldn’t be many horses quickening today.
Tofino Bay probably isn’t as talented a horse as Aupcharlie is, but he only has 6lb to find with Willie Mullins’ horse on official ratings, and today’s conditions may allow him close the gap. He looks over-priced at around 7.2.
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