DONN McCLEAN: So how relevant are the (relevant) Derby trials? The 2000 Guineas just shades it these days as a Derby pointer. Not that the 2000 Guineas is a trial, because it isn’t, it is a Classic itself, but it is also helpful as a pointer to the Derby.
Australia was third in the Guineas and won the Derby in 2014, when he was chased home by Guineas eighth Kingston Hill. Camelot won both the Guineas and the Derby in 2012, Sea The Stars won both in 2009, New Approach was second in the Guineas and won the Derby in 2008, as was Sir Percy in 2006. Before Sir Percy, you have to go back to Generous in 1991 to find the previous Guineas horse to win the Derby, but what’s recent is fashionable. That’s what the Recency Bias handbook says anyway.
That means that five of the last 10 Derby winners ran in the Guineas, although it is interesting that only two of them won the one-mile Classic.
With Guineas winner Galileo Gold sticking to the mile route – Irish Guineas, St James’s Palace Stakes – it is left to Massaat to represent the Guineas form this year. Massaat ran a cracker to finish second in the Guineas, a length and a half behind Galileo Gold.
The worry with Massaat, however, as is often the case with Guineas horses, concerns his stamina. He is by the Galileo stallion Teofilo, so that gives him a chance of staying, but his dam, a daughter of Acclamation, was a six-furlong filly on the track, she won twice over six furlongs and never over further. Massaat does not scream 12 furlongs.
The Dante produced the Derby winner last year in Golden Horn, who did the Dante/Derby double, becoming the first horse to do so since Authorized in 2007. That said, Workforce was second in the Dante in 2010 before going on to win the Derby, thereby becoming the first horse to be beaten in the Dante to go on and win the Derby.
Between Authorized and Workforce, Tartan Bearer won the Dante and finished second in the Derby, while before Authorized, Motivator (2005) and North Light (2004) did the Dante/Derby double, bridging a gap back to Benny The Dip in 1997 and Erhaab in 1994.
So five of the last 12 Derby winners prepped in the Dante, and that is good news for this year’s Dante winner and runner-up, Wings Of Desire and Deauville.
Add those two together, add the Guineas stat to the Dante stat, and 10 of the last 12 Epsom Derby winners ran in either the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket or the Dante at York. Applying that logic, it is a 1.2 shot that Massaat, Wings Of Desire or Deauville will win the Derby.
Of course, it is not as simple as all that. The Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial has not provided the Derby winner in 14 years, but the Leopardstown race did have that golden Sinndar/Galileo/High Chaparral hat-trick in 2000, 2001 and 2002, and it has provided big runners in Derbys since, like Alamshar and Fame And Glory and Dylan Thomas.
The 1-2-3 from this year’s Derrinstown are all set to line up at Epsom. Derrinstown winner Moonlight Magic was very good on the day, and trainer Jim Bolger expects that he will come on significantly for that run, while Shogun and Idaho, second and turn at Leopardstown respectively, did not have great runs through the race. Moonlight Magic is obviously the leading player from the Leopardstown race, but Idaho is an interesting outsider.
The Chester Vase provided one of the two Derby winners in the last 12 years who did not prep in either the Guineas or the Dante in Ruler Of The World. This year’s Vase winner, US Army Ranger is, like Ruler Of The World was, trained by Aidan O’Brien and is set to be ridden, like Ruler Of The World, by Ryan Moore. The Galileo colt was not impressive in winning the Vase, but it was only his second run ever and, given that he is trained by Aidan O’Brien and all, it is legitimate to expect significant progress from that run.
It is also legitimate to expect significant progress from Vase runner-up Port Douglas. Last year’s Beresford Stakes winner, he was only beaten a short head by his stable companion at Chester. He was conceding 4lb, and he was running for the first time this season at Chester. He has been at least a little overlooked by the market.
The Lingfield Trial has not produced the Derby winner since High-Rise (also the last hyphenated winner) did the double in 1998, so that is not a positive for Humphrey Bogart. The Sandown trial has not produced the winner since Benny The Dip – who also won the Dante before he won the Derby – in 1997, so that does not help Algometer.
The other race that has produced the Derby winner in the last 12 years is the Prix Greffulhe. You probably won’t see the Prix Greffulhe listed as a Derby trial anywhere, given that it is run in France, and that it is not an automatic step to Epsom, but Andre Fabre seems to run Epsom Derby possibles in it, and that is significant.
Fabre sent Pour Moi out to win the Greffulhe in 2011 before taking him to Epsom and winning the Derby with him.
It doesn’t always work out like that. Two years after Pour Moi, Fabre won the Greffulhe with Ocovango, who finished fifth in the Derby. Five years before Pour Moi, Fabre won the Greffulhe with Visindar, who probably did really well to finish fifth in the Derby, given that he came home an injured horse.
You suspect that Fabre’s representative this year, Cloth Of Stars, is more Pour Moi than Ocovango, and not just because he ran in the Prix La Force before he won the Greffulhe, just like Pour Moi did.
Fabre says that Cloth Of Stars is very different to Pour Moi. Pour Moi had more acceleration, he says, but Cloth Of Stars has a higher cruising speed, and he is sure to stay the distance. Given a choice, in a Derby, if you had to choose, would you choose acceleration, or cruising speed and stamina? If you said cruising speed and stamina, go to the top of the class. (If you said acceleration and stamina, read the question again.)
By Sea The Stars and out of a full-sister to Oaks winner Light Shift, Cloth Of Stars has progressed nicely in his two runs this season. A keen-going juvenile last year, he settled well in the Prix Greffulhe before staying on nicely to win well. The step up to a mile and a half should bring about improvement, and the easy ground is a positive. He has a lot of the attributes that you seek in a potential Derby winner, and he is fairly priced at around 9.0.
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