Who is the most likely winner of the Ascot Chase? Riverside Theatre I would say. Maybe Kauto Stone, if the ground is on the soft side of the good to soft they are predicting as opposed to on the good side, if you follow. Who represents the best value, though, at current odds? Gauvain I’d say.
That’s where most punters go wrong, they try to back the horse they think will win the race, the horse they think is most likely to win the race, without really taking the betting into account. If you were doing that, of couse, all you’d be doing would be backing favourites, and that’s no way to be going about making a long-term profit.
They say things like, Zarkandar was great value today at 3/1, sure he’s a Champion Hurdle horse and he was running in a handicap off a mark of 151. Strangely, even now, even after he has won the race, I still don’t think that he was value for today’s race at 3/1, given the information that we had before the race, and that has nothing to do with the fact that he traded at 99/1 in-running.
It’s about 10 years now since I stopped trying to back the horse that I thought would win the race and started trying to back the horse or horses that I thought were most over-priced. Of course, you will give up plenty of winners with this strategy. Like Zarkandar. I like Zarkandar a lot, I backed him to win last year’s Triumph Hurdle, he was the best of what is increasingly looking like an exceptional group of juvenile hurdlers last year.
Ten years ago, I would have backed Zarkandar today. I would have said, he could be thrown in on a mark of 151, that mark could look mighty lenient after the race, he could be top class, he could be the second best hurdler around, I’m going to back him. What price is he?
Same with Riverside Theatre. Ten years ago, I would probably have already backed Riverside Theatre for the Ascot Chase. He’ll probably win, I would have said, I’m going to back him. What price is he? 2/1, they would have said. Yep that’ll do, I’ll have some of that.
Riverside Theatre is the highest-rated horse in the race. He won the race last year, he was second in the King George before that, splitting Long Run and Kauto Star, and he has still run just seven times over fences, so he still has potential for progression. Also, although this is his seasonal debut, he has won on his return in each of his four seasons racing, and his trainer Nicky Henderson proved today with Burton Port that he can bring one back after a long lay-off to run a cracker.
The main downside is his price, and you are entitled to have a look-to-take-on-the-favourite default position. So you look for the weak points. True, he has won on his seasonal debut for the last four years, but his last three debuts were in November. We are now into February, and he hasn’t been sighted yet this term, so he has obviously had his problems. Also, he has never made his seasonal debut in as high-class a race as tomorrow’s. He may well win, but he is a fashionable horse, he is a high-profile horse, possibly because he is owned by Jimmy Nesbitt, and I am happy to let him run at 2/1.
Gauvain, by contrast, is often under-rated and under-bet, as a lot of the Nick Williams horses are, with the obvious exception of Diamond Harry. Gauvain was well beaten by Riverside Theatre in this race last year, but he still ran a cracker in defeat, it was a step up on anything that he had done since his seasonal debut the previous November, when he shocked Forpadydeplasterer and Tataniano. Also, he looks like an improved horse this year, and he has a race-fitness advantage over the Henderson horse, which he didn’t have last year.
You have to forgive him his latest run in the Victor Chandler Chase, but you can. Two miles is probably too sharp for him these days, he was rushed up coming out of Swinley Bottom that day, a manoeuvre that, in hindsight, didn’t do his chance of winning any good, and he was a beaten horse when he fell. He should be much happier back over two and a half miles tomorrow.
He goes well at the track, Williams’s horses appear to be in good form after the freeze, as evidenced by good runs from For Non Stop and Horatio Hornblower at Newbury today, and Noel Fehily is a good rider who knows the horse well.
Kauto Stone would come into it on soft ground. He looked good in winning at Down Royal in November and the two miles of the Tingle Creek was probably too sharp for him. If he turns out to be even half as good as his half-brother Kauto Star, then he could win this race turning handsprings. However, he is priced up on reputation and potential, and 5/2 is too short for me.
Medermit is a player, even if it is a little disappointing that he hasn’t gone on like it looked like he would after he won the Scilly Isles last year, and I’msingingtheblues could be picking up pieces late on but, in a good each-way race, Gauvain is the each-way value for me.
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