Grand National day memories? Lots of them. Red Rum, the 1977 one, for starters. He and Tommy Stack coming clear of Churchtown Boy, just two loose horses in front of him, daylight behind him and asking your dad where Davy Lad was. (Gone by the third fence son.)
Then there was the first National winner that you backed (Hallo Dandy, 1984), the second National winner that you backed (West Tip, 1986) and the third National winner that you backed (Maori Venture, 1987). Three of them in four years? Easy peasy. And this in the day when you were only allowed back one.
Not many winners since, mind you, despite numerous attempts every year.
Not much has changed on this year’s Grand National landscape since the two-pronged On His Own/Chicago Grey plan was hatched two weeks ago. You remember the plan? Back On His Own at 10 and Chicago Grey at 17?
There are some minor updates. For one, Ruby Walsh was obviously confirmed for On His Own. You always expected that Ruby would ride On His Own, or at least you did after Prince De Beauchene was ruled out. Ruby is a massive positive in the Grand National. Also, Paul Carberry was confirmed for Chicago Grey. Another massive positive. If you had to choose five jockeys to ride for you in the Grand National, both Ruby Walsh and Paul Carberry would be high among the five.
Strange that On His Own has been fairly weak in the market in the last few days. It is difficult to know why. I thought he would go the other way, actually. I thought that he could have gone off the 6/1 or 11/2 favourite. That’s unlikely to happen now, he may not even go off as favourite, but I still think that he is the most likely winner of the race, insofar as there is a most likely winner of the Grand National.
The case for him is rock solid, as outlined two weeks ago. He was travelling and jumping like a dream in last year’s race, he had made his ground easily to get in among the front-runners from well back in the field, when a loose horse started annoying him in the last few crucial strides before he took off at Becher’s.
He was an eight-year-old last year, he is nine this year, a much better age for the race, yet he gets to compete off last year’s mark of 148. He is trained by a master who has spent the last 12 months preparing him for today, and he won a Grade 2 hurdle at Navan in February on his only run since Aintree last year. Current odds of 11 or 11.5 are too big.
Chicago Grey doesn’t have the same fashionable profile that On His Own has, but he still has a huge amount in his favour. Primarily, on form, he is probably the best-handicapped horse in the race. He was allotted a mark of 141 by the British handicapper (2lb lower than his Irish mark and 9lb lower than the mark he was allotted last year) when the weights were published. Since then, he has won a Grade 2 chase at Navan, beating Tuesday’s impressive Normans Grove Chase winner Folidubh into second place. He is now rated 149 over fences in Ireland, which means that he is effectively 8lb well-in today.
There is even more to the case for him, though, than a lenient handicap mark. He is a National Hunt Chase winner, so we know that he stays four miles. He jumped the first four fences well last year, he was well able for the big fences, before he was brought down at the fifth.
As a 10-year-old, he is the ideal age for the race, he has a lovely racing weight of 10st 7lb, his trainer Gordon Elliot sent out Silver Birch to win the National in 2007 and his horses are in sparkling form – he had six winners from 13 runners last Sunday and Monday – and he will hopefully have Paul Carberry for company. As a binus, as the name suggests, he is grey. He will be easy to spot.
How many are you allowed to back? Five? So here are three more.
Rare Bob is one. He is another really well-handicapped horse. Since the weights were framed, Dessie Hughes’ horse finished a close-up fourth in the Bobbyjo Chase, just two lengths behind Seabass (with whom he is 9lb better off, yet he is two and a half times his odds), and a close-up third in the Leinster National.
He has been trained for the race all season, he jumped the fences well in the Becher Chase last season on ground that was too soft for him, the better ground will help today, he has run really well on the Mildmay course at this meeting in the past, he is a Grade 1 winner as a novice, and his trainer Dessie Hughes, like Gordon Elliott, has his horses in top form.
Cappa Bleu is another. Like Rare Bob, he is 11, but he is a lightly-raced 11-year-old – he has raced in just nine chases in his life – and 11-year-olds are not too old for the National (ref. Neptune Collonges last year). Fourth in the race last year when ridden conservatively, he has shaped encouragingly in just two runs this term to date, most notably on his most recent run at Ascot in February, when he was an eye-catching staying-on third behind Vino Griego, who is now 13lb higher than he was then.
Cappa Bleu himself is 2lb higher than he was then, but he gets to race off his old mark of 145, which is 2lb lower than the mark off which he raced last year. It is easy to see him jumping around, and he could get a lot closer this time if he is ridden a little closer to the pace.
Last one: Quiscover Fontaine. Fourth in the Irish Grand National – a race that is a top pointer to the Aintree National – in 2011, just one place behind last year’s Grand National runner-up Sunnyhillboy, he travelled and jumped the big fences well for a circuit in last year’s renewal of the Grand National, but he just got the 17th fence, the first fence on the final circuit, wrong, and came down.
He hasn’t set the world on fire in three runs this term, but his latest run at Thurles behind Mount Benbulben wasn’t completely devoid of promise, and it is significant that Willie Mullins is sending him to Aintree. He was in the Irish Grand National until final declaration stage.
I wouldn’t worry about his record of 685 this term to date, you can be sure that the champion trainer has been getting him ready for one of the Nationals, and those form figures are more than compensated for in odds of 48 or 50. He has a better chance than that.
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
