The first Classics. Not easy. How do you compare the Dewhurst winner with the Craven winner? Or last year’s Rockfel Stakes winner with the filly who won the Nell Gwyn just a couple of weeks ago?
How do you weigh up the chances of last season’s Irish-trained champion juvenile, who hasn’t run since he was a juvenile, against the chances of the colt who was so impressive in winning the quintessential Guineas trial, in which he beat just three rivals, and about whom the champion jockey speaks in revered tones?
Or the chances of the filly who caused a mild surprise by blowing her rivals away in the traditional British 1000 Guineas trial against the Rockfel Stakes winner who hasn’t run for the most recent quarter of her life? Or the winner of the best French trial with an Irish filly who looked so impressive in winning a maiden?
Here’s how. You can’t. All you can do is engage in guesswork, ideally of the educated kind. Put all the evidence that you have into the mix, and emerge with a set of probabilities that equate to the chance of each horse winning. Then compare those probabilities/odds with the odds that are on offer, and act/bet accordingly. (Same as with every race then?)
Dawn Approach is the correct favourite for today’s Qipco 2000 Guineas. Last year’s top juvenile by some way, unbeaten in six, Coventry Stakes winner, National Stakes winner, Dewhurst Stakes winner, and he looked in fine fettle two weeks ago when Jim Bolger opened his doors to the media and allowed them watch the son of New Approach do a piece of work at Beechy Park. Even a reproduction of his Dewhurst run would see him go close in an average Guineas, so if he has made even normal improvement from two to three, he obviously has a massive chance.
However, best odds of 15/8 are short enough about any horse when there are so many unknowns.
Cristoforo Colombo was only a length behind Dawn Approach in the Coventry Stakes, and he probably wasn’t favoured by racing towards the far side. The other four horses who, along with Aidan O’Brien’s colt, filled the first five places, including Dawn Approach, all raced towards the near side, and there was a nice break between the first five home and the rest of the field. It is significant that Aidan fits cheekpieces today, and that Joseph has chosen to ride him in front of Mars and George Vancouver.
That doesn’t mean that those two are not without their chance, and George Vancouver is particularly interesting at around 19. The mount of the continually under-rated Colm O’Donoghue, he was only third behind Dawn Approach in the Dewhurst, but he wasn’t suited by racing in rear that day, and he had to make his ground out in the middle of the track, furthest from the favoured stands rail. As well as that, the easy ground wouldn’t have been in his favour. A son of 2008 Guineas winner Henrythenavigator, he should love the faster conditions today, and he could out-run his odds by a fair way.
The other horse who looks over-priced is Garswood at around 16. Richard Fahey’s horse did not run in the top juvenile races last season, but he is a big horse who only started to get the hang of things towards the end of the term. On his only run this season, he looked mighty impressive in winning the Free Handicap at Newmarket’s Craven meeting. He travelled well in rear that day, and he showed a searing turn of foot to come through and pick it up before pricking his ears and idling late on, giving the impression that he had plenty more left to give.
It may be that his future will lie over shorter than a mile – he is by Dutch Art out of a Kyllachy mare – but he certainly wasn’t stopping at the end of seven furlongs in the Free Handicap, and his trainer says that he has no doubt that he will stay. If he does, he could run a huge race.
In the Qipco 1000 Guineas tomorrow, it is not that difficult to be against favourite Hot Snap at a short price. She looked really good in winning the Nell Gwyn in a good time, almost a half a second faster than the time that Garswood clocked in the Free Handicap a half an hour earlier, but there are reasons for believing that she was flattered by that run.
She travelled out the back in a race in which they went really fast up front into a headwind, and in which the hold-up fillies were consequently favoured. Also, she made her ground on the stands rail, probably the fastest part of the track by some way for the Craven meeting, passing Sky Lantern, from whom she was receiving 3lb, when her momentum was up.
She is sure to improve for that run, she was relatively weak in the market before the race and, a half-sister to Midday, she is certain to improve for the step back up to a mile. She may well win, but she is very fashionable, a Henry Cecil filly who races in Frankel’s colours, and she looks under-priced.
Moth can be filed in the could-be-anything drawer after her hugely impressive performance to win a maiden at The Curragh four weeks ago, a race from which the fourth-placed filly has emerged to win her own maiden by seven lengths, and she is interesting.
The Dermot Weld-trained filly Rasmeyaa is also really interesting. Big Break was supposed to be the Rosewell House representative in the 1000 Guineas and, as a result, Rasmeyaa has been largely under the radar. But she was most authoritative in winning her maiden at Leopardstown last October, a maiden which is working out really well and in which this season’s Group 3 Park Express Stakes winner Rehn’s Nest could finish only fifth. It is significant that her trainer is allowing her travel. She could surprise a few people.
French filly What A Name is rock solid, however. Mikel Delzangles’ filly beat the colts in the Group 3 Prix la Rochette last September, and with a little more luck in-running she could have beaten them again in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp last October.
She proved her wellbeing this term by winning the Prix Imprudence, the race that has been used as a springboard by just about every French-trained winner of the 1000 Guineas in the last half a century, including Natagora and Special Duty in the last decade. Her top class trainer, who sent out Makfi to win the 2000 Guineas three years ago – has been uncharacteristically bullish about her chances in the last seven days, and odds of 5.9 or 6 about her are more than fair.
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