I haven’t backed Act Of Kalanisi for Saturday’s Lanzarote Hurdle yet. I put him up on Newstalk on Thursday evening – both listeners have probably nicked the price between them – and I haven’t backed him yet. That’s unusual and it’s also unclever.
There were a couple of things that slowed my drive to the Bet counter. Firstly, I had missed the 12/1 and I thought that the 10/1 best-odds were just about fair, that there was a good chance he would be bigger than that with one or two firms on Saturday morning, guaranteed odds, without the habitual danger that goes with ante post betting, the dreaded, den den dehhhn, non-runner scenario. All the indications were that he was a likely runner, but I didn’t think there was a great need to take the risk.
Secondly, I was a little worried about the track and the ground. Still am, actually. Kempton is a sharp track, it generally favours speed over stamina. Combine that with the unusual prospect of good ground in the middle of January, and you could have a race in which it all happens a little too quickly for Dr Richard Newland’s gelding.
We have been here before, I backed Act Of Kalanisi for the Ladbroke Hurdle on his latest run at Ascot four weeks ago. When you find yourself leaning again towards a horse that you have backed before, it is generally wise to take a tug, try to step back out of the woods and analyse the race/tree again. There is a chance that you develop a soft spot for a horse, and just can’t see past him whenever he runs. (I would have backed Zongalero to win the Guinness 600 if he had run in it in his day.) That said, it is also the case that, if you fancied a horse to win his previous race, and if you are happy that there is a reason why he didn’t win it, and if his cover is not blown, as in, if the market still hasn’t cottoned onto him, and if he is therefore available at what you deem to be a value price, then you probably have a strong case for backing him again.
That is the case with Act Of Kalanisi today for me. He actually ran well in the Ladbroke, much better than his finishing position in sixth place suggests. He didn’t have the race run to suit at all. Unusually for what is traditionally a helter-skelter two-mile handicap hurdle, they went no gallop in the Ladbroke, which really wasn’t suitable for a horse who stays two and a half miles well and who had got tapped for toe in the past over two. He travelled well in the front rank for a long way, he actually was one of just three horses who were still on the bridle going to the home turn, but he just got done for pace when they quickened up around him, and he could only keep on to finish sixth.
Young Brendan Powell rode him that day. I like Brendan Powell a lot, I think that he is a hugely talented rider and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go to the very top. However, he probably could have been more aggressive on Act Of Kalanisi on the day. He was probably riding to instructions, as you do when you are 16 years old and claiming 7lb. A more experienced rider probably would have had the authority and the confidence to be more aggressive when he saw how the race was playing out around him.
There shouldn’t be any such worries today, given that he is stepping up to two miles and five furlongs but, just in case something else untoward should happen, he will have Barry Geraghty for company, and that is a huge asset. He was 8/1 on Friday evening. That is a fair bit shorter than I had hoped for, but we might be able to nick a bit of 9s in the morning, each-way, obviously. Hopefully the ground will be at least on the easy side. If the frost gets into it, it might ride quite holding.
Others on my shortlist for the race were Ohio Gold, Swincombe Flame, Rajdhani Express and Zanir. Ohio Gold is on a hat-trick, and he is interesting on his handicap debut off a mark of 134 with the afore-mentioned Brendan Powell taking off 5lb (not 7lb any more). I thought that Zanir would have been involved in the finish of the Totesport Trophy at Newbury last February if he hadn’t fallen at the second last, and he didn’t shape badly on his only run in Britain so far this season behind Safran De Cotte at Haydock last month.
Swincombe Flame has probably gone a little short now, but Rajdhani Express, although disappointing in the Ladbroke, had run really well to the second last flight in Ubi Ace’s handicap hurdle at Sandown on his previous run at the start of December, and it looks like the ground is coming in his favour.
More work to be done in the morning when we get the ground conditions and hear what some of the trainers have to say, but I’d say I’ll end up backing Act Of Kalanisi and one of the others, probably Ohio Gold or Rajdhani Express. All each-way, of course. Somewhere between 16 and 20 runners and each-way the first four places: what’s not to like?
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
