There is always a risk with ante post betting. You know that, if your horse doesn’t make it to the starting line, you have done your dough. That’s why you get those mad inflated ante post prices – or that’s the theory anyway.
There is a sense that the mad inflated prices aren’t what they used to be, more because of the competitiveness of the Day Of Race market, because of the competition among the bookmakers for every betting dollar, and because of the betting exchanges, than because the ante post market isn’t competitive. I hear that argument, but there is still a big angle to ante post betting, especially when the markets are fresh and new, clean off the bookmakers’ screens, before they can have been infiltrated by published opinions, market forces and consensus.
Tuesday afternoons/Wednesday mornings are usually spent going through the main Saturday races, going through the ante post races, the ante post markets. I backed Qianshan Leader for today’s Sky Bet Chase on Wednesday morning. Qianshan Leader had a lot in his favour. For starters, you had a fair idea that he was a definite intended runner. You never know these things for certain, racehorses being the fragile entities that racehorses are, and racehorse trainers being the indecisive entities that they are (how many Cheltenham entries can you give one horse?), but Emma Lavelle had said after Qianshan Leader won at Doncaster last time that the Great Voltigeur (say: Sky Bet Chase) was his next target.
Of course, you need more in your favour than a high probability that you will participate in a race if you are to have a chance of winning it, but Qianshan Leader has plenty. His latest win was probably the best performance of his life. Okay, so he only just got home by a neck from Benny Be Good, but it always looked like he was going to win, he probably wasn’t doing a whole lot in front, and he probably won with a fair bit more in hand than the winning margin.
As well as that, the pair of them came clear of their rivals. Third-placed The Hollinwell didn’t do a lot for the form in Tatenen’s race at Ascot last Saturday, but fourth-placed Tullamore Dew actually ran very well in the same race until he fell at the second last fence. Then Benny Be Good came out and was a staying-on fourth in a Pertemps Qualifier at Huntingdon this afternoon, which was more than encouraging.
Qianshan Leader’s second best run was probably his penultimate run, when he was a bit out-paced down the far side over two miles and five furlongs at Kempton before staying on well up the home straight over the last three fences to just get up on the line to beat the useful Inside Dealer.
He is eight years old, he has run 11 times over fences, he is not obviously massively progressive, but the fact that his last two runs have been two of the best of his career tells you that, at this stage of his career, for whatever reason, he is improving. His trainer said during the week that she thinks that he is just getting stronger this year, and that may explain his progression now as a three-mile chaser.
The step back up to three miles suited him at Doncaster last time, and the fact that that last run, that last win, the best run of his life, was over today’s course and distance is a positive. On top of that, his only other run at Doncaster was in a two-mile-three-furlong handicap chase last March, which he won as well.
He has been raised 8lb for his last run, so he is going to have to progress again if he is to win or go close in a typically competitive renewal of this race, but there is every chance that he will progress. He is going that way anyway, and it is probable that he wasn’t even near the bottom of the barrel last time. He has had a nice break since then, and this has been the plan since.
Hold On Julio’s defection is obviously a help. I was happy to be against him at 7/2, the Sandown race that he won last time fell apart in front of him, I am sure, you can’t jump that badly at Sandown and win as easily as he did, and he wouldn’t have got away with a similar round of jumping tomorrow in a much hotter race. Also, he has been raised 11lb for that. He is an exciting horse, but he is a very fashionable horse. He will probably be under-priced the next time he runs, and I am sure that I will be against him again, wherever and whenever that will be.
Other possibles tomorrow? Calgary Bay, I’msingingtheblues (NON RUNNER), Shakalakaboomboom and Shalimar Fromentro, I’m sure I will be saving on one of those tomorrow, especially if all 16 remaining runners stand their ground. That’s tomorrow’s business though. Hope Doncaster passes its early-morning inspection now. Signs are positive.
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