These are the weekends to savour, these weekends that lead up to Christmas. National Hunt racing at its best; four or five weekends now on the bounce, when the champions return, embark on the road that will take them back to Cheltenham in March. And they do embark on that road, they don’t stay in their stables, not before Christmas anyway.
From a betting perspective, however, I think that Long Run (champ of champs) may be vulnerable tomorrow. Admittedly, natural instinct when starting to assess any race dictates that you try to find reasons why the favourite can be beaten, reasons why he is over-rated and under-priced, but I don’t think you have to work too hard to construct the case against Long Run at a shade of odds-on.
This is his seasonal debut, and that is huge. You would be amazed if Nicky Henderson had him razor sharp for his seasonal debut. His major targets this year are the King George and the Gold Cup – same as last year then. The difference between this year and last year, however, is that last year he was the young pretender, nobody knew how good he was, not even his connections. This year, he is the reigning champ, the pressure is on, and you can be certain that Henderson will be doing all that he can to have him cherry ripe for the King George, including, if necessary, leaving at least a little bit to work on from his seasonal debut.
Two significant elements in this context. Firstly, it was interesting to read owner Robert Waley-Cohen’s comments during the week to the effect that Long Run has grown and strengthened during the summer, that he has become a real racehorse. That may be a positive in the context of the season as a whole, in the context of going back to Cheltenham to try to win back-to-back Gold Cups, but it may not be a positive in the context of his seasonal debut, it may mean that he needs to work harder in order to get fully fit, match fit.
Secondly, he was beaten on his seasonal debut last year in the Paddy Power Gold Cup off a mark of 158. To put that mark into context, all but one of his five rivals in tomorrow’s race are rated higher than 158, and the majority of them have the potential to go higher than that. Long Run finished the season on a mark of 182, 24lb higher than the mark off which he was beaten, which tells you that (a) he probably improved dramatically as the season progressed and/or (b) he wasn’t at his best on his debut.
He won the Gold Cup in March so, despite some fears at the time, it probably wasn’t the track that saw him underperform in the Paddy Power, it wasn’t Cheltenham’s hills and hollows. It may have been the distance, it may be that he is a stayer, not a speed horse – similar to Best Mate then, in that we originally thought the latter but he turned out to be the former – and that the trip was too sharp for him. Or it may just have been that he wasn’t at his peak for his debut. In all probability, it was a combination of the two.
It is difficult to knock his performance in either the King George or the Gold Cup, he was superb in both, as was his rider. That said, it is worth pointing out that it may not have been a vintage year for staying chasers. Kauto Star and Denman, superstars though they are, were surely on the wane. Two 11-year-olds, they filled the placings in the Gold Cup – still no horse aged older than 10 has won the Gold Cup since What A Myth in 1969 – with What A Friend finishing fourth and Midnight Chase finishing fifth. Long Run may prove to be the best staying chaser of all time, he may be still progressing (although French-bred jumps horses, with the notable exception of Kauto Star, do not generally have the propensity for progression from six to seven that Irish or British-breds do), but he has to do it against another generation now.
In Time For Rupert, Diamond Harry and Weird Al, the son of Cadoudal faces a highly progressive second-season chaser – one of the few horses who could put really it up to Big Buck’s over hurdles – and two lightly-raced, classy, progressive third-season chasers. This trio have raced four times, four times, and seven times respectively over fences, and they all have massive scope for progression. I would much prefer to back the three of them at combined odds of 6/4 than to back Long Run at even money or a shade of odds-on.
Of the triumvirate, Diamond Harry may need softer ground than he is going to get tomorrow to be at his best, and Time For Rupert may prefer a greater test of stamina. There is the worry about Weird Al re-appearing so quickly after he won the Charlie Hall, fragile soul that he apparently is, but the Charlie Hall was three weeks ago now, not two, and he did win at the 2009 Cheltenham December meeting four weeks after winning at the Cheltenham November meeting.
Donald McCain’s horses are flying, and Timmy Murphy is riding with more confidence these days than has been the case for years. At 7/1, Weird Al is the most attractively-priced horse in the race in my book, although it might be an idea to at least save your stake on Time For Rupert and Diamond Harry.
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