It’s a weekend of multiple-choice questions. Sprinter Sacre or Sanctuaire? Sir Des Champs or Flemenstar? Dichotomous, if you will. Sandown or Punchestown?
It’s fascinating stuff, these are the platinum weekends of the National Hunt season. Sanctuaire zinging along in front in the Tingle Creek on Saturday, going at a pace that you are certain he cannot sustain, over the Railway Fences, Sprinter Sacre keeping tabs. Three lengths behind, maybe four, maybe five, not an unbridgeable gap though. You would be surprised if Barry Geraghty allowed Sanctuaire steal too great a march. Sprinter Sacre is a keen-goer himself, but Road Runner wouldn’t lead Sanctuaire.
In a season in which last term’s novices are dominant so far, Sprinter Sacre’s seasonal debut is probably the one that has been most eagerly-anticipated. With normal luck, Nicky Henderson’s horse could develop into something quite sensational, and Barry Geraghty has never tried to hide the magnitude of the respect that he has for him. As against that, the performance that Ruby Walsh’s ride Sanctuaire put up in winning the Celebration Chase in April, over Saturday’s course and distance and in similar conditions, was quite breath-taking. We’re into irresistible force/immovable object territory here, and it is really a race to watch rather than to bet. If forced to have a bet, however, at around 1.4 Sprinter Sacre, 3.5 Sanctuaire, you can argue that the value lies with the Nicholls horse SANCTUAIRE. The discrepancy between them probably shouldn’t be quite as big as that.
Rubi Light will probably lead in the John Durkan Chase at Punchestown on Sunday – different role for Geraghty – and that should suit Flemenstar. Peter Casey’s horse should be able to sit in behind and take a nice lead, his fluent jumping enabling him stay close. Sir Des Champs shouldn’t be too far back. It will be the Willie Mullins-trained gelding’s seasonal debut, but we saw what Mullins can do with seasonal debutants in the Drinmore Chase at Fairyhouse last Sunday, when Arvika Ligeonniere had his rivals stone cold by the time he reached the third last fence.
That said, Sir Des Champs has to start off somewhere this term, and you have to think that neither Mullins nor owner Michael O’Leary would want him to have a really hard race on his seasonal debut, when his entire season will funnel into the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
By contrast, Sunday could be Rubi Light’s Gold Cup. Robbie Hennessy’s horse loves soft ground, he loves going right-handed, two and a half miles is his trip, and he loves to jump out of soft ground. He is top class when he has these conditions. If you are hoping to see this season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at Punchestown on Sunday, you will, of course, be disappointed if one of the top two doesn’t win the race, but 8.0 is probably too big about Rubi Light.
The Becher Chase at Aintree obviously has a much more open look to it at this stage, as befits a three-and-a-quarter-mile handicap chase over the Grand National fences, set to be run on soft ground. Betdaq don’t have a market on the race yet but, at current ante post prices, the two who stand out for me are West End Rocker and Big Fella Thanks.
West End Rocker won the race last year with plenty in hand off a mark of 137, and he is just 5lb higher this year. He ran just twice after the Becher Chase last season, he fell at the second fence in the Grand National, which was a little frustrating, given that his whole season had been geared towards the race, and then he was pulled up in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown.
He didn’t run at all badly on his only run to date this term, staying on well, as he did, to finish an admittedly remote third behind The Package and Michel Le Bon in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton last month off a mark of 146. The good to soft ground there just didn’t place the emphasis on stamina that Alan King’s horse needs. He will be much happier on genuinely soft or heavy ground on Saturday, we know that he handles the track and that he has been trained for the race, and the 4lb drop in his rating is undoubtedly a help. He is joint-favourite, but odds of around 8.0 are fair.
Big Fella Thanks looks even more generously priced, mind you, at 13.0. Sixth in the Grand National itself as a mere seven-year-old (and seven-year-olds just don’t win the Grand National) in 2009, he was fourth in the race in 2010 and seventh in 2011, each time travelling really well to the home turn and then just running out of stamina over the last two fences.
Three and a quarter miles should be ideal for him, he loves this course, he jumps the big fences really well, and he handles soft ground well. He was off the track for over a year and a half, from the 2011 National until he made his debut this term for Tom George in the three-mile veterans’ chase over the Mildmay fences at Aintree’s October meeting. Nicely backed that day, he was travelling well when he unseated his rider at the eighth fence.
George has confirmed that the Becher Chase has been his target for a while now, and the fact that he has been dropped 6lb to a mark of 145, because of his absence, is in his favour. It seems like he has been around for ages, but he is still only 10, which is not a disadvantage in this race (four of the last 10 winners were 10 or older, and only one of the last seven winners was younger than nine).
The Primitive Rising gelding is a highly-talented staying handicap chaser – he is a winner of the Skybet Chase at Doncaster and of the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury – who goes well on a flat left-handed track (his best runs have been at Aintree, Newbury and Doncaster). His trainer’s horses are in fine form, and it is easy to see him running a big race. It wouldn’t be at all surprising were he to go off a fair bit shorter than the 13.0 at which you can currently back him.
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