On the face of it, it is going to be difficult for either of the Aga Khan colts Hartani or Massiyn to win the Gain Horse Feeds Irish St Leger at The Curragh this afternoon. History tells us that three-year-olds simply don’t win this Classic, although whether or not you can really call it a Classic any more, given that it is open to older horses, has been the subject of debate for almost 30 years now.
Vinnie Roe is the last three-year-old to win the Irish St Leger, and he was such a good three-year-old that he won the next three renewals of the race. He is the only horse to win the Irish Leger four times. Indeed, no other horse has won it three times, which puts the magnitude of Vinnie’s achievement into context, as well as the standard that he achieved as a three-year-old.
Before Vinnie Roe, you have to go back to Petite Ile in 1989. Twenty-three years have passed since Petite Ile, 22 renewals of the Irish Leger, 23 winners, and Vinnie Roe is the only three-year-old. So how is a three-year-old going to prevail this afternoon?
It may not be as difficult as the bare stats suggest. Dig a little. Last year, there were no three-year-olds in the race, nor were there any in 2006. In 2010, just two members of the Classic generation took their chance in the Irish Leger, and one of them, the Aidan O’Brien-trained Flying Cross, who was rated 24lb inferior to the winner Sans Frontieres and 19lb inferior to the runner-up Profound Beauty, finished third, beaten a total of just two and a half lengths.
In the 2009 renewal, there was just one three-year-old, the 33/1 shot Moon Indigo, who finished sixth of the eight runners. In 2008, there were just two three-year-olds, and one of them, the 40/1 shot New Zealand, rated 28lb inferior to the winner Septimus, finished second. The other was the 100/1 pacemaker Mikhail Fokine.
You see the shape of the picture that is slowly developing? Three-year-olds may not struggle that much at all in the Irish St Leger. On the contrary, there is an argument taking shape that says that they out-perform expectations.
In 2007, the only three-year-old in the race, Mores Wells, finished third of nine, in 2005 the only three-year-old Shalapour disappointed in finishing seventh of nine. In 2004, the two three-year-olds finished sixth and 13th, but in 2003 the three-year-old Powerscourt finished third, beaten just a length, while in 2002, the three-year-old Ballingarry finished third. 2001 was the year that Vinnie Roe won it as a three-year-old.
Conclusion? In the years in which the three-year-olds have had genuine chances, they have performed well, they have gone close, and in one or two of the years in which they didn’t have realistic chances, they still went close. In the nine years in the last 11 when the Classic generation have been represented – and they haven’t been strong numerically during that period – their best-placed representatives have finished 133673263.
Implications for Hartani and Massiyn? Encouraging. They both have genuine chances. Massiyn shaped like a real stayer when he went down by just a length and a half to Galileo’s Choice in the Group 3 Ballyroan Stakes over a mile and a half at Leopardstown last month. The Michael Halford-trained colt is lightly raced, he has lots of scope for progression, he should appreciate good ground if it continues to dry out, and he is fully deserving of his chance.
However, the other Aga Khan colt, the John Oxx-trained one, Hartani, may have an even better chance. He is rated just 1lb superior to Massiyn, but he just shapes like a classier sort. Unraced as a juvenile, he has run five times this term and he has progressed with each of them.
His form is rock solid. The filly that he beat into second place in a conditions race at Tipperary in May was Montebell, and she came out and won a really good handicap at The Curragh last Sunday on her next run off a mark of 92. She is probably better than a handicapper.
In the Curragh Cup, run over today’s course and distance on Derby weekend, he beat another filly, Midnight Soprano. Midnight Soprano had won a big 12-furlong handicap at The Curragh on Guineas weekend, beating subsequent Ebor runner-up Royal Diamond into second place, and she had beaten Saddler’s Rock and Unaccompanied in the Listed Saval Beg Stakes on her final run before the Curragh Cup.
Hartani was beaten by Ursa Major in the Irish St Leger Trial on his latest run. That looked a little disappointing at the time, but the pair of them pulled well clear and they pushed each other into clocking a good time. Ursa Major is probably a fair bit better than was apparent at the time. Connections think enough of him to allow him take on Camelot and company in the St Leger this afternoon.
Also, that was Hartani’s first run in seven weeks. He will probably progress from it, and it is almost certain that John Oxx has been training him to peak for today, to have him at concert pitch for whatever Leger he and HH the Aga Khan decided that he would contest.
Fame And Glory sets a high standard. An Irish Derby winner, a Coronation Cup winner, last year’s Ascot Gold Cup winner who went back to Bershire last October and won the Ling Distance Cup, he has 7lb in hand of Hartani on official ratings. However, a lack of consistency has crept into his game of late. He was disappointing in this race last year, and he was disappointing on his most recent run, when he went back to Ascot to try to defend his Gold Cup.
You can be sure that Aidan O’Brien wouldn’t be running him if he didn’t think that the son of Montjeu was capable of producing his best, and, if he does, it will take a huge effort to beat him. But there has to be a question mark over whether or not he will be able to produce his best, and the trip may be short of his best these days. Those uncertainties into the mix, and you can just about take him on at 5/2.
Brown Panther is a player, last year’s Doncaster St Leger runner-up. However, it is disappointing that he has won just a four-horse race on very soft ground at Pontefract in seven attempts since he shaped like a really exciting three-year-old when he won the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot 2011.
Aiken remains progressive, despite his defeat in the Hardwicke Stakes last time, but they are giving nothing away at 6.0 or 7.0, while Royal Diamond is an admirable performer, but he may just lack the class of some of his rivals.
This one could be the one in which the Classic generation re-claim what is rightfully theirs (a Classic), with slight preference, even at the shorter price, for Hartani. Hard to believe it’s 11 years since Vinnie Roe’s first.
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