Here’s an exercise that is worth doing at this time of year. The King George and the Feltham Chase, the two main British Grade 1 championship events for seasoned chasers and novice chasers respectively, are run over the same course and distance on 26th December, elements permitting. The Lexus Chase and the Fort Leney Chase, the two main Irish Grade 1 championship events for seasoned chasers and novice chasers respectively, are run over the same course and distance on 28th December, as above, elements permitting. Comparing the respective times of the two sets of two races can give an indication of the relative talent of the staying novice chasers on either side of the Irish Sea.
First things first, simple comparisons. In winning the Feltham Chase, Grands Crus completed Kempton’s three miles in 6mins 2.2secs, while Kauto Star took 6mins 5secs to complete the same course and distance in winning the King George, 2.8secs longer. In winning the Fort Leney Chase, Last Instalment completed the three-mile trip on Leopardstown’s chase track in 6mins 16.4secs, 3.1secs less than Synchronised took to complete the same course and distance in landing the Lexus 70 minutes later. Initial indications, then, are that this season’s staying novice chasers could be good.
Now the sectionals. Crude though they are, hand-timed using an iPhone stopwatch and the Racing Post replays, they are still a very useful indicator, especially in National Hunt races when the distances are longer and the fractions of seconds are not as important as they are in, say, a five-furlong race. Grands Crus took about 3mins 7secs to complete the first circuit in the Feltham, from the first fence on the first circuit to the first fence on the second circuit, helped, no doubt, by the fast pace that Teaforthree and Mr Moonshine set up front. It took him about 45secs to get from there to the first fence in the back straight, approximately 1min 22secs to get from that point to the second last fence, and about 26secs to get from the second last fence to the line. That’s a total of about 5mins 41secs to get from the first fence to the winning line.
Comparing Grands Crus’s sectionals with Kauto Star’s makes for interesting reading. With no fast pace to chase, it took Paul Nicholls’s horse 3mins 9secs – about two seconds more than Grands Crus – to complete the first circuit. From there, it took him around 46secs to get to the first fence in the back straight, 1min 22secs (the same as Grands Crus) to get from there to the second last fence, and about 25secs to get from there to the winning line.
The Feltham time did benefit from a solid early pace, in helping Grands Crus to go three seconds faster than Kauto Star to the 2/3 part of the race, but Kauto was only able to claw back one second from there to the end of the race, despite the fact that he was pushed all the way by Long Run. As well as the absolute final time, the comparative sectionals suggest that the novice is a worthy Gold Cup contender, if connections decide to go down that route instead of sticking to the RSA Chase.
It was a similar story at Leopardstown two days later. In the Fort Leney Chase, Last Instalment took about 3mins 25secs to get from the first fence back around and over the same fence, the first fence in the back straight second time around. From there, it took him around 1min 27secs to get to the third last fence, and from there it took him approximately 1min 4secs to get to the winning line.
The early pace was much slower in the Lexus Chase, which meant that it took Synchronised 3mins 30secs to complete the first circuit, five seconds more than it took Last Instalment in the Fort Leney. From the first fence in the back straight on the second circuit, it took Synchronised 1min 26secs to reach the third last fence, then 1min 3secs to get to the winning line from there. So, through the latter stages of the race, JP McManus’s horse was able to claw back just two of the five seconds that he lost because of the slow pace on the first circuit.
All this suggests that the novice races were good. Even the best of the beaten horses, First Lieutenant, Allee Garde, Silviniaco Conti and Bobs Worth, are probably good, and the likelihood is that, in Grands Crus and Last Instalment, we have two highly talented and hugely exciting staying novice chasers.
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