Great news that the Northumberland Plate meeting goes ahead today at Newcastle. Not only because it is the Gosforth Park track’s biggest day of the year, because it is their big-revenue day, that without it their 2012 Trading and Profit & Loss Account might not look so healthy, but also because I have backed Palazzo Bianco. In fact, mainly because I have backed Palazzo Bianco.
You back a horse ante post during the week for Saturday’s big race, you take a lot of uncertainty on board. Often you are engaging in educated guesswork concerning the horse’s intended participation in the race for which you have backed him. You don’t know for sure what the ground is going to be like, you have no clue about the horse’s draw, and you often cannot be certain about where you want to be drawn anyway. You can’t be sure either of the opposition, of what will run and what won’t run, and you often don’t know for certain what weight the horse is going to have to carry even if he does run, you don’t know for sure which of the highweights will run and which won’t, and by how much the weights will or won’t be raised as a result.
That said, there are angles.
I am generally more than happy to punch in the dark regarding the draw. Nobody else knows what the draw is either, nor what the effect of the draw is going to be for sure. You’re back to pure form assessment. It’s like fighting the Invisible Man with the lights turned off: you negate his advantage.
You couldn’t have been certain that Palazzo Bianco was a definite runner in today’s Northumberland Plate – John Gosden also had Thimaar in the race – but it looked like the race for him, it looked like it should have been an intended target for him, and he had a lot in his favour, so much so that the lack of absolute certainty about his intended participation was more than factored into his odds of 16/1.
He was number 31 on the list in a race with a safety limit of 20, so he did need 11 horses above him to come out in order for him to get into the race. That was a bit of a worry, but you shouldn’t really be worrying about not getting into the race when you are thinking about having an ante post bet, simply because you get your money back if your horse doesn’t get it. Different story, of course, if he is withdrawn, if the trainer takes him out of the race. In that instance, you lose your ante post bet. However, if the trainer declares his horse, an intended runner, and he is subsequently ballotted out, then no harm done.
Palazzo Bianco is a progressive young stayer. He only finished third behind Lordofthehouse on his latest run at Haydock in a Class 2 handicap over two miles, but he didn’t enjoy the run of the race that day. He got caught in the pocket three furlongs out, and Nicky Mackay had to bide his time before angling his horse out. When he did, Palazzo Bianco picked up and stayed on really well under just a hands and heels ride all the way to the line.
It wasn’t the first time that the son of Shirocco had suggested that he would be suited by a greater stamina test than two miles on fast ground provided. He had been done for pace on his previous run, his debut this season, over two miles at Kempton, when they didn’t go a great gallop early on and they quickened from the top of the home straight, but he did stay on nicely as well that day to finish third.
Two miles on soft ground should provide the extra stamina test that Princess Haya’s horse should relish. He did disappoint on heavy ground at Haydock last October, but he proved that he could handle soft ground when he finished third in a race that wasn’t run to suit over a mile and five furlongs at Chester last September. And he is a son of Shirocco, so he should be well-suited by today’s test.
Crucially, he shapes as if he will be much better than his official mark of 86 in time. That mark sees him get into today’s race on 8st 2lb, which is ideal. The Northumberland Plate is a race for lightweights, with the last nine winners carrying no more than 8st 11lb, and seven of those carrying 8st 8lb or less. Only nine of the 20 runners in today’s race are set to carry 8st 8lb or less, and Palazzo Bianco is one of them.
High Office is another, and it is easy to see him out-run his odds of 16/1 or 18/1. He ran a whole lot better in the race last year than his finishing position suggests, he was checked by Montaff at a crucial stage of the race before staying on. While he just doesn’t have the scope for progression that Palazzo Bianco has, it is still easy to see him running well, and it is only a little bit of a worry that trainer Fahey seems to prefer Lexington Bay.
Figaro was on my ante post shortlist, but he was also entered in a race at Windsor today with a jockey booked, so you couldn’t really have been backing him ante post. He hasn’t been beyond a mile and a half in his life, but he does shape as if he will get further, he goes on easy ground, he has a nice progressive profile and he is at the right end of the weights. He is a player all right.
Montaff would also be a player if you knew that he was going to run his race. He ran a cracker to finish second behind Tominator in the race last year, and he gets to race off a mark that is 11lb lower today. The problem is that he has hardly run a race since, he has finished better than eighth just once in nine races in the last 12 months, he obviously has his own ideas about the game. There is a chance that the soft ground and the return to Newcastle will re-kindle his enthusiasm, and his trainer Mick Channon has a good record in the race, but he is risky.
All the money during the week has been for Chester Cup first and third, Il De Re and Gulf Of Naples. However, both are at the wrong end of the weights. Also, Il De Re has to race off a mark that is 8lb higher than his Chester mark while Gulf Of Naples has to race off a mark that is 6lb higher. While Gulf Of Naples ran out of his skin to finish a close-up fourth in the Ascot Gold Cup last week – and he is 6lb well-in for today’s race as a result – there is a chance that this race is just coming a bit quickly after he dug as deep as he dug at Ascot. Either could easily win, of course, but at respective odds of 5/1 and 7/1, they represent little value.
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