Those wily bookmakers are still finding it difficult to give anything away on the Irish Grand National. They must have given it all away on the Masters. One-third the odds the first 12 a place, they are shouting on the rails at Augusta, and if you finish second or third behind Tiger Woods or Gary Player, or if you have a Mc or a Harr in your name (upon presentation of a valid driving licence or USIT card), we’ll give you your money back.
Contrast that with what’s on offer for the Irish Grand National. There were 69 horses in the entries list before five-day declaration stage yesterday, and the bookmakers bet the top 19 in the market to a margin of 115%, all in, run or not, ¼ the odds a place the first four.
The five-day decs came and went on Wednesday, and the situation didn’t change a great deal. The original list of 69 was reduced to a mere 51 (easy peasy), with the top 24 in the market priced up at 125% at best prices.
Overnight declarations stage – I know, it’s only Friday – has left us with a maximum field of 30, and things are looking a little better, with the top 20 in the market priced up at just over 100%. That’s a little more like it.
There is still some each-way value in Cross Appeal at 14/1. Noel Meade’s horse has a lot of the qualities that you look for in an Irish National winner. For starters, he has a touch of class. He won the Grade 3 juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse’s Hatton’s Grace Hurdle meeting in 2009, and he finished second in the Grade 1 Spring Juvenile Hurdle – the race that this year produced the Triumph Hurdle first and second, Countrywide Flame and Hisaabaat – 10 weeks later. As a chaser, he was only beaten four lengths by last month’s RSA Chase runner-up First Lieutenant in a beginners’ chase at Cork last November before he started contesting the high-class staying handicaps.
Secondly, he stays well. He finished third in the stamina-search that the Troytown Chase invariably is at Navan last November, and he would have finished even closer to Groody Hill had he not made a fairly bad mistake at the final fence, and he won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas.
It looked like he wouldn’t get a yard beyond three miles that day, but he had been in front from the fourth last fence, and Paul Carberry sent him on at the second last, so it is more than understandable that he was reaching for the line. You can be certain that Carberry will ride him to get home over the five-furlong longer trip on Monday, and the Paddy Power is rarely won by a horse who has suspect stamina.
Thirdly, he is potentially a fair way ahead of the handicapper. He was raised 4lb for his Troytown run, and he was raised another 9lb for his Paddy Power win, but that still leaves him on a mark of just 134. He has the potential to be a fair bit better than that. He is only six years old, he is only getting going now as a staying chaser, and he has raced just seven times over fences. As such, he has significant scope for progression. Also, the fact that Noel Meade has left him off since last December, with the specific objective of taking him to Fairyhouse to contest the Irish National, tells you that the trainer probably thinks that he has a pound or two up his sleeve.
As well as that, he is proven at Fairyhouse, having won his Grade 3 juvenile hurdle there, and he is proven over fences going right-handed, given that he won his beginners’ chase at Punchestown. Goodish ground, or ground on the easy side of good, as looks likely, should be ideal. Statistically, his rating of 134 is just about spot on – the last five winners were rated between 130 and 140 – and his weight of 10st 7lb is good, given that the last 11 winners carried 10st 12lb or less, and that the last eight carried 10st 8lb or less.
The two other six-year-olds, Groody Hill and Four Commanders, are obvious players, the former especially if the rains arrive, while Lastoftheleaders and Start Me Up and Allee Garde and Glam Gerry had made their respective ways onto a relatively long shortlist. However, Cross Appeal represents the best value of the race in my book at current respective prices.
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