Teaforthree may win today’s re-arranged Welsh National at Chepstow, but odds of around 4.5 about him really are very short.
Teaforthree is a nice horse. He was a game winner of the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last March, he stays well, he handles soft ground well, he has won twice at Chepstow over fences, he has scope for progression over fences, trainer Rebecca Curtis’s horses are in fine form, he has been trained for the race, and he will be ridden by AP McCoy.
There is a lot to like. The only problem is his odds. The fact that he has been trained for the race has been well-documented and, as a result, people have been onto him for a while now. Before he ran in the Hennessy, his trainer said that his run at Newbury would put him spot on for the Welsh National, his real target, and his price for today’s race began to contract, even before the Hennessy was run. Throw in (or out) a couple of non-runners, add the fuel that is the 17-time champion jockey on top of those flames and, hey presto, you have a red hot favourite.
Not that Teaforthree can’t win. Of course he can. He is one for your shortlist for sure. (He is one of four on mine.) But odds are key. Teaforthree will be the shortest-priced favourite for the race since Silver Birch won it in 2004, and his chances of winning it may be no better than the chances of some of his rivals who are trading at significantly longer odds.
Michel Le Bon is one of those. We have been here before in the lead up to the originally scheduled Welsh National. The run that Paul Nicholls’ horse put up to finish second to The Package in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton on his only run to date this term looked mighty good at the time, and it looks even better now. The Package went on to finish fourth in a top class renewal of the Hennessy off a handicap mark that was 8lb higher than his Badger Ales mark, and that form has been further enhanced since, with the second and third, Tidal Bay and First Lieutenant, finishing first and second in the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last Friday.
The Package and Michel Le Bon had the Badger Ales between them from a long way out, and the pair of them finished clear of their field, which included Golden Chieftain, who was actually pulled up, but who came out and finished third in the December Gold Cup at Cheltenham on his only subsequent run despite kicking several fences out of the ground. The Badger Ales form this year is rock solid form.
Michel Le Bon races off just a 4lb higher mark today, and that is more than fair. Despite the fact that he has just turned 10, he has the potential to be a fair bit better than the mark of 144 off which he will race. He has raced just four times over fences in his life, just nine times under all codes, and there is every reason to expect that he can still progress. Also, he was actually sent off at no better than 10/1 in the 2011 Hennessy Gold Cup on just his second ever run over fences, his first run in exactly two years, racing off a mark of 146, 2lb higher than today’s mark.
He relishes soft ground, and there is every chance that he will improve for the extreme test of stamina that the Welsh National presents. He is trained by Paul Nicholls, whose horses continue to be in top form and who has won two of the last eight Welsh Nationals, and who resisted the temptation of running Michel Le Bon in the Hennessy in order to keep him fresh for today’s race. Also, the Villez gelding won his maiden hurdle on his only run at Chepstow, and he will have the assistance today of Ruby Walsh, who is always a huge addition, but whose value in these long-distance handicap chases is magnified.
Two others who are of interest, and who probably shouldn’t be as far behind Teaforthree in the betting as they are: Universal Soldier and Across The Bay. Universal Soldier has 13 lengths to find with Teaforthree on their running in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last March, but that was only Charlie Longsden’s horse’s fourth run over fences, whereas it was Teaforthree’s sixth. Also, the ground would have been faster than ideal for Universal Soldier at Cheltenham, and he is 5lb better off at the weights.
He ran a nice race on his debut this term at Haydock to finish second behind Quartz Du Thaix. That should have put him spot on for today. He will relish the testing conditions and the step up to an extreme distance, and, while there is always the danger that first-time blinkers will cause him to run too freely, they may also bring about even further improvement.
Across The Bay has more weight than ideal, but Halcon Genelardais (in 2006 and almost in 2007) and Synchronised (in January 2011) have proved in recent years that a big weight is not an insurmountable burden in the Welsh National. A useful performer for Noel Meade until he joined Donald McCain in 2011, the Bob’s Return gelding is a thorough stayer who races handily and loves soft ground.
Third to Big Buck’s in the Liverpool Hurdle at Aintree last April, Across The Bay has progressed again since returning to fences this term, shaping as if he would appreciate a more thorough test of stamina when finishing second to Wayward Prince at Aintree last month. He may not win today’s race under his welter burden, but he is a real galloper with a willing attitude, and he could run a lot better than your typical 30.0 shot.
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