DONN McCLEAN: Do you remember your first? Everyone remembers the first one.
Mine was 1977, Red Rum’s third, or his fifth, depending on whether you are counting wins or participations. I wanted to back Red Rum in 1977, I wanted him to shoulder the 50p bet that my dad gave me. I had a toy horse called Red Rum. I think that’s why.
The problem was that my older brother also wanted to back Red Rum in 1977, and he used older-brother-privilege (it’s a thing, okay?) to determine that he should back Red Rum and that I should back something else. Davy Lad, as it transpired.
I don’t remember seeing Davy Lad in the race, but I do remember my dad telling me that he had fallen, at the third fence I think, the big ditch, although I didn’t know how big until about 20 years later when I went and stood in it. And I remember Red Rum bounding clear under Tommy Stack, only loose horses and people around him on the run-in. I resolved that I would back Red Rum the following year, that I would rally against older-brother-privilege if I needed to. Alas, 1977 was Red Rum’s third, but it was also his last.
Many Clouds (pictured) bids to do a Red Rum this year, to win back-to-back Grand Nationals, and it is remarkable that no horse has done it since. Oliver Sherwood’s horse has a real chance of doing so too. He is a nine-year-old this year, better equipped in theory for the National now than he was last year as a whipper-snapper eight-year-old – he was the first eight-year-old winner since Bindaree in 2002.
Also, he has been trained specifically for the race this year, unlike last year, when he took in a Gold Cup en route, and he is only 5lb higher. However, history is against him, and he is only around 11.0.
I much prefer Shutthefrontdoor at almost twice the favourite’s odds. JP McManus’ horse ran a massive race for AP McCoy in last year’s renewal. He was just a little keener than ideal through the early stages of the race, which was not surprising, given that it was his first run since the previous November. He travelled best of all over the third last and back onto the racecourse proper, but his early exertions took their toll from that point, and he just kept on to finish fifth.
There are two main reasons to think that he should do better this year. Firstly, like Many Clouds, he was only eight last year, he is nine this year. He should be a stronger horse this year, and he fits a Grand National winner’s profile much better.
Secondly, he has had a run since November. It wasn’t a great run, he was pulled up in the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury last month, but you can forgive him that, he returned with an abscess on his foot. You try running two and a half miles with an abscess on your foot!
Jonjo O’Neill reports him in top form now, well recovered from his foot ailment, and Jonjo is tops when it comes to preparing a horse for a big handicap chase, as he proved once again with Eastlake in the Topham Chase yesterday.
That Newbury run should have knocked the freshness out of Shutthefrontdoor, he shouldn’t be as keen this year on the first circuit as he was last year, and that should allow him finish off his race more strongly than he did last year. Also, he is an Irish National winner, we know that he stays, and the Irish National is often a good pointer to Aintree.
The Accordion gelding races off a mark of 152 today, 1lb lower than the mark off which he raced last year, and he will have the assistance of Barry Geraghty, who has chosen to ride him in front of Gallant Oscar, who also has a big chance. Very soft ground would not be ideal but, as long as the rain doesn’t keep coming down, as long as it stops at the 7mm that they had overnight, he should be fine.
Gallant Oscar and Saint Are – you are allowed to back three in the Grand National – could also be worth backing, both, like Shutthefrontdoor, also available at around 20.0.
Gallant Oscar has that rare mix of maturity and progressiveness that is a big asset to carry into the Grand National. A 10-year-old who has raced just 10 times over fences, he just missed the cut for the National last year, after he had run a big race to finish third behind The Druids Nephew in the three-mile handicap chase at the Cheltenham Festival.
Instead, he went to Punchestown and, racing for the first time in JP McManus’ colours, he was impressive in landing a good three-mile handicap chase on soft ground.
He made his debut this season in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, and he was running a big race when he got the second last fence wrong and unseated his rider. He was level with ultimate winner Minella Foru at the time, and he appeared to be travelling better.
He was well beaten over hurdles back at Leopardstown on his next run, but he ran a nice race in the Leinster National at Naas last time to finish fifth behind Venitian De Mai. He just appeared to get tired on the run-in after travelling well to the final fence. That run should have put him spot on for today.
Mark Walsh is a good deputy for Geraghty, and the only occasion on which he has ridden Gallant Oscar was in victory in that three-mile chase at Punchestown last May. The Oscar gelding is a 10-year-old with a nice racing weight of 10st 8lb, he has the ideal profile for the race, he will not mind the overnight rain, and he is trained by another man who is adept at getting a horse to peak on a big day.
The main worry with Saint Are is the overnight rain. Tom George’s horse is at his best on good spring ground, as he proved once again when he finished second to Many Clouds in the National last year.
He is an Aintree horse, he has won twice at this meeting, once over hurdles and once over fences, and he jumps these big spruce fences really well. He was a little unlucky last year, he made a significant mistake at Becher’s second time, and he was beaten less than two lengths by a horse who was carrying 5lb less than his handicap rating dictated.
Horses who finish placed in the National do not have a great win record in subsequent years, but there are reasons for believing that Saint Are can step up on last year’s performance. He is a 10-year-old now, the ideal age for the race, he is only 3lb higher than he was last year, and he is in the form of his life.
Tom George’s horse battled on well to win a three-mile handicap chase at Doncaster last time, probably putting up a career-best effort in the process. The handicapper raised him 4lb for that run but, because the weights for the National had already been sealed, he gets to race off his old mark of 146, so he is 4lb well-in.
George’s horses are in top form, and Paddy Brennan is riding out of his skin these days. As long as the ground doesn’t get too soft, Saint Are is another who could run a massive race. Like Shutthefrontdoor and Gallant Oscar, the Network gelding looks over-priced at around 20.0.
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
