DONN McCLEAN: The Doom Bar Celebration Mile is tricky. You can pick holes in the chances of just about all five contenders.
Actually, you can’t pick too many holes in Thikriyaat’s chance. Progressive three-year-old, proven at the track, over the course and distance, won well last time, good form with Ribchester, a subsequent Group 1 winner, trained by a master trainer, ridden by a top rider.
The downside is that he is short. He is the lowest-rated horse in the race, and he is the shortest-priced one.
If this race were a handicap, Thikriyaat would be receiving more weight than he is receiving from all his rivals. He would be receiving more than weight-for-age from the three older horses, and he would be receiving 2lb from fellow three-year-old Zonderland.
Thikriyaat is all about potential. He is better over a mile than he is over seven furlongs, and he has the potential to be better still than he has shown thus far. Potential is all very well, it is an admirable quality, and it is one that bettors should seek out. However, when that potential is factored into a horse’s odds, as is probably the case with Thikriyaat’s odds on Saturday, the probability is that the horse is under-priced, not over-priced.
Zonderland is a talented colt, but he still has to prove that he is up to this level, and he is not as obviously progressive at Thikriyaat is. He did win the Group 3 Sovereign Stakes at Salisbury last time, and the Sovereign Stakes is often a high-class race. However, it may have been an easy enough Group 3 contest this year, given that warm favourite Massaat, the Guineas runner-up, faded out of it dramatically from the two-furlong pole.
In fairness to Clive Cox’s horse, he could only beat what was left for him to beat, but, as above, he still has to prove that he is up to this level. He is the second lowest-rated horse in the race, and he is second favourite. Not much value there then.
Lightning Spear is another talented horse, but he was disappointing in the Prix Jacques le Marois last time, and he would surely prefer the ground to be softer than the ground that he is going to encounter, while Toormore is an admirable performer, but he will always be vulnerable to a progressive rival.
You can easily pick holes in Arod’s chance too. He has been well beaten in his three runs this season, he was behind Lightning Spear in the Jacques le Marois last time, and it looks likes Oisin Murphy has chosen the David Simcock-trained colt in front of him.
However, the Peter Chapple-Hyam-trained horse is a decent price, and there is a case to be made.
Rewind to last year. Arod won the Group 3 Diomed Stakes at Epsom’s Derby meeting, he won the Group 2 Summer Mile at Ascot, and he ran out of his skin to run the top class Solow to a half a length in the Group 1 Sussex Stakes last year, significantly, over Saturday’s course and distance.
The Teofilo horse was admittedly disappointing in two runs in Australia at the end of last year, but you can easily allow him that, racing, as he was, on the far side of the globe.
His trip to Australia reportedly took plenty out of him, so you can allow him his first run back this season, when he actually didn’t run badly in finishing third in a listed race at Ascot.
And you can allow him his last two runs as well. It all happened a little quickly for him in the July Cup, run, as it was, over an inadequate six furlongs, and the ground was just too soft for him in the Prix Jacques le Marois.
That is a lot of excusing, and you will end up in the soup kitchens if you continue to make excuses for horses. However, there are reasons for believing that Arod can step forward on Saturday.
For starters, he should have fast ground, and he bounces off fast ground. Secondly, he goes really well at this idiosyncratic track. His only run at Goodwood until now was in that Sussex Stakes last year, when he probably put up the best performance of his life.
Thirdly, the form of the Peter Chapple-Hyam yard is better now than it was earlier in the season. He had no winners from 10 runners in June, and no winners again from 10 runners in July. His horses appear to be in much better form now though. He had a winner at Chelmsford last week in Buckstay, and he had Pleasure Dome run well in defeat at Catterick.
As well as that, there is a chance that Arod will have it all to himself up front. Toormore has led before, Zonderland has led before, but it is likely that both will be happy to take a tow from confirmed front-runner Arod. If that is the case, Jimmy Fortune could be able to dictate fractions that will suit his horse, and an ideal draw in stall one lends itself to those tactics.
It is an intriguing race, it will be fascinating to see how it develops, but the outsider of the field, Arod, may represent the value.
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