The top two in the market for tomorrow’s Victor Chandler Chase are now drifting out towards their correct prices, but they are still a little shorter than they should be, there is still value to be had in going against them.
On Wednesday the best price you could get about Finian’s Rainbow was 7/4, while Al Ferof was available at no better than 11/4. That made it just slightly better than 1/2 the pair of them coupled, which was a fair bit too short. This evening, you can lay the favourite at 3.3 on Betdaq, while you can lay Al Ferof at 4.2. That makes it around 5/6 about either of them winning the race, and that is closer to what it should be, but it is still a little too short in my book. (Remember, value in betting on racing is completely subjective.)
The thing is, if you were told that one of the horses in tomorrow’s race was going to go on and win the Champion Chase, you would say, probably Finian’s Rainbow. If you were told that one of the horses in the race was going to go on and win the Champion Chase, but that it wasn’t Finian’s Rainbow, you would probably say Al Ferof.
But that is a different question to the one with which we are faced tomorrow. The Champion Chase is a different problem and requires a different solution. There is no question that Finian’s Rainbow and Al Ferof are both bursting with potential, but they probably shouldn’t be as far in front of their rivals tomorrow in the market as they are.
Finian’s Rainbow has always had a tall reputation, neither Nicky Henderson nor Barry Geraghty have ever attempted to conceal the regard in which they hold him. Winner of his bumper and two of his four races over hurdles two seasons ago, the only defeat that he has suffered over fences was in last year’s Arkle, when he finished second behind Captain Chris.
On his only run this season to date, he came from what looked like an impossible position to get up in the last few strides to beat Wishfull Thinking and Oiseau De Nuit in the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton’s King George meeting, and he has apparently worked and schooled really well this week.
He is a player, no question, but there are negatives. Firstly, he put himself in that near impossible position in the Desert Orchid Chase with a terrible mistake at the last fence in the back straight. It was not the first time that he has put in a hairy jump, and if he does that in the heat of a Victor Chandler Chase, there will probably be no comeback.
Secondly, he only beat Wishfull Thinking by three parts of a length in that race, and that horse had made an almost identical mistake at the same fence, yet he is almost one-third the price of Philip Hobbs’s horse tomorrow. Also, Oiseau De Nuit was just two lengths back in third, albeit without making a bad mistake, and he is a 33/1 shot tomorrow.
There is also the notion that Finian’s Rainbow is a fashionable horse, a horse who is always popular with punters and therefore often under-priced. In his 12 runs under all codes, he has been sent off as favourite nine times (six times at odds-on), second favourite twice and third favourite once. And there is the slight niggle in the back of your head about the fact that Henderson has given him a Gold Cup entry, that maybe his trainer harbours a slight doubt about him possessing the pace for two miles now. Why would his trainer put him in the Gold Cup if he was 100% sure that he was a specialist two-miler? He may well win tomorrow, but this is the stiffest test that he has faced in his career by a little way, and he shouldn’t be a 2/1 shot to win.
And if this is Finian’s Rainbow’s stiffest test by a little way, it is Al Ferof’s stiffest by a long way. He gave the impression that he needed further than two miles over hurdles last season, despite the fact that he won the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, and, while he was mighty impressive in winning the Grade 2 Independent Newspapers’ Chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting on his chasing bow, he was all out to beat For Non Stop in the Henry VIII Chase at Sandown’s Tingle Creek meeting on his most recent start.
That race isn’t working out well at all. All six beaten horses have run since, and they have mustered just one win between them – Eradicate’s scramble home in a Class 4 novices’ chase at Southwell two weeks ago.
Also, Al Ferof is a novice. There is a chance that, on just his third run over fences, it will all be a bit much for him, it will all happen a little too quickly for him. He is potentially top class, but he just may lack experience at this stage of his career for tomorrow’s test. Combine that with the fact that he may be better over further in time, and 3/1 is plenty short enough.
When the top two in a market are too short in your eyes, it generally means that you think (still subjective) there is plenty of value to be had elsewhere. That is the case tomorrow.
Okay, so Somersby doesn’t win very often, and he has been tried over all trips now from two miles to three miles. It may be that he is tripless at the highest level. However, he seems to love Ascot. He has run there twice over fences, and he has recorded his highest Racing Post Rating and his joint-second-highest Racing Post Rating in those two runs. It may be that the long pull from the sixth last fence to the line suits him well. He ran a cracker in this race last year when he just failed to get up and beat an on-song Master Minded, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him go well again tomorrow. He is under-rated and over-priced at 6/1.
Gauvain is a horse who is often under-rated, and it looks like that is the case again tomorrow. He was knocking on the door of top class last season, but it looks like he is better than ever this term. In three runs, he has beaten Woolcombe Folly impressively over two miles at Cheltenham, he has beaten Somersby over two miles and five furlongs in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon, and he was just starting to find his range in the Tingle Creek Chase, after they had gone very fast early on, when he fell at the first of the Railway Fences.
He is 10, he is not obviously progressive, but he is in the form of his life, his trainer’s horses are in top form, and he is proven at Ascot. Two miles may be on the sharp side for him, but this is two miles and a furlong at a stiff track on potentially tacky ground. Stranger things have happened, and 9/1 is a fair bit too big.
Forpady would also be over-priced at 12/1 if you knew that he was back in peak form. His trainer seems to think he is, and he was running a mighty race against Big Zeb and Noble Prince last time at Leopardstown before he made a mistake at the final fence. Similar comments apply to Wishfull Thinking if he could bounce back to his Aintree or Punchestown form from last season, but he is only half Forpady’s price.
The other thing about the race is that, with the dead eight runners, opposable market leaders and most of the bookmakers betting ¼ the odds a place the first three, it is a great each-way race. I thought about laying the top two in the market, but a better option is to back two or three of the others each-way, back two maybe and save on one, or back one and save on two, and go for a bigger payday.
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