BMW CHAMPIONSHIP: The top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings will tee it up in Maryland this week with another huge pile of cash on the line, as well as a chance to advance to next week’s 30-man Tour Championship at East Lake. The Tour’s brightest stars have all turned out for this one, with the top two players in the world, Scheffler and McIlroy, heading BETDAQ’s Win Market. While this two-week conclusion to the FedEx Cup may not quite pack the drama and excitement of next month’s Ryder Cup, it’s a pretty decent appetizer, particularly if we’re lucky enough to get a finish like we saw at last week’s St. Jude, when Justin Rose charged to a come-from-behind victory on a thrilling Sunday afternoon.
The venue this week is one that the players haven’t seen for four years, since the last time it hosted this tournament. Caves Valley Club is a Tom Fazio design that originally opened in 1991 and gained a reputation as a visually stunning yet quirky track that has hosted a handful of significant events, including the U.S. Senior Open in 2002, an LPGA event in 2014 and the Senior Players Championship in 2017. A renovation prior to the 2021 BMW stretched it out to over 7,500 yards, so there will be plenty of long irons this week, but the course doesn’t have the teeth to fend off the best players in the world and a birdie fest is a virtual certainty. In 2021 it took 27-under to reach a playoff, where Patrick Cantlay outlasted Bryson DeChambeau for his fifth PGA Tour win, and it’s probably going to take something in that neighborhood again. It will be more of a sprint than a grind this week as the players get aggressive in trying to secure a spot in the top-30.
With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Ludvig Aberg (20.0)- After a somewhat disappointing season by his lofty standards Aberg seems to have found his form again, logging two top-10 finishes in his past three starts, including a T9 in Memphis last week. He’s still a machine with the driver, ranking 10th on Tour in strokes gained off the tee, but his irons hadn’t been as crisp as usual for most of the season and the stats say he’s turned that around lately, which a big reason for his reappearance on the first page of leaderboards. We know he’s as good as anyone in the world when he’s right, and though he’s never played Caves Valley in competition, he’s near the top of the rankings in birdie or better percentage, so he’s certainly capable of taking it low and winning an event like this. I like his chances this week and the price is fair enough… keep in mind, he only has to beat 49 other guys.
Ben Griffin (48.0)- It’s been quite a run for Griffin these past few months, and there’s no sign of it abating: he finished 9th at the St. Jude last week and 11th at the Wyndham the week before, breaking 70 in 7 of his last 8 competitive rounds. He’s now registered 12 top-15 finishes on the season, including two victories — the first two of his career — and a runner-up at the Memorial. What’s more, he’s been a birdie-making machine, ranking 3rd on Tour with 342 total birdies, so a venue like Caves Valley, where opportunity abounds, should be a perfect fit. Griffin has shown that he’s not scared of the big boys, either, with some of his best results this season coming in some of the year’s strongest fields. He’s well positioned to contend again this week and feels like a nice value at nearly 50/1.
Sungjae Im (100.0)- The normally reliable Im has been a disappointment this season, logging only three top-25 finishes across 25 starts. That said, he’s shown signs of turning it around lately, finishing 17th at the St. Jude last week after a brilliant second-round 64 and a Sunday 67. The week before he threw up some low numbers at the Wyndham, opening with 64-64 before fading over the weekend and finishing T27. It may be signs of big things to come for Im, who has been streaky throughout his career and often follows a good week with a better one. He’s one of the few in the field who knows what it’s like to go low at Caves Valley, as back in 2021 he posted 23-under for the week en route to a 3rd-place finish here. He’s a live one this week and is well worth a bet at a price like 100.0.
