CHINESE GRAND PRIX PREVIEW
Sebastian Vettel made some waves in the formula one world two weeks ago by converting Ferrari’s promising testing performance into a win at the Australian grand prix. Many expected the team to keep to the status quo, which, in recent years, has been to put in a great showing during testing and then flounder when it came to actually racing. This year bucked the trend, putting immense pressure on Mercedes to up their game heading to the Chinese grand prix this weekend.
Since the Australian grand prix moved to Melbourne from Philip Island, 48% of the drivers who won the opening grand prix went on to win the season. So by no means a sure thing but it shows that the pace a car delivers right out the gate can often be converted into season long success. As Guenther Steiner, team principle of Haas F1, recently said, it’s easier to develop reliability once you have speed than the other way around.
The Australian grand prix gave us lots of information on the teams and what we can expect for the next few races and indeed the season. Ferrari and Mercedes are set up to be locked in a season long battle, though it must be said that it’s likely a strategy decision from Mercedes that handed Vettel the opportunity of a win. Red Bull seem to be clear third and behind them, Williams are setting themselves apart from the rest of the midfield. McLaren Honda followed through on their disastrous testing and look like they will possibly only manage to beat Sauber this season, though they did manage to get one car to the end and the other completing 52/57 laps; an achievement considering they have the worst and least reliable engine on the grid.
The Chinese grand prix is likely to be a different kettle of fish altogether to Melbourne. Turns 1/2 and 12/13 are incredibly hard on tyres and, with the new regulations giving greater traction, offer an opportunity for brave drivers to enter carrying heaps more speed. Mercedes might actually struggle as they seem to have one of the hardest cars on tyres, though this is somewhat offset by their likely advantage in the power unit department. Haas are likely to struggle with their consistent problem of overheating brake disks and the poor Honda engine will be run ragged on this power intensive track, more so than in Australia.
Outright Markets
As one would expect, Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari have shortened a lot since their race win. There is still a significant question over whether Ferrari can actually keep up relative to those around them as they have traditionally not done a great job developing the car. This is the best time to lay Ferrari in the constructors at a price of 3.65 as this is the most optimistic the market will be if they do indeed develop backwards. Looking at the Chinese GP outright, market forces seem to really dislike the top teams secondary drivers. Raikkonen in particular holds a world championship title and can show up any race of the year in spectacular form. His price of 12 and Bottas’ of 8.6 both look very attractive at this point.
Specials
We once again have set up some more off kilter markets for this weeks Chinese grand prix. “The McHonda Reliability Meal” is back in force. Fernando Alonso is in fact the only driver to have completed every lap of every F1 race at Shanghai so a price of 2.8 to see both McLaren cars cross the finish line is well worth a spin. Antonio Giovinazzi impressed last week after replacing Wehrlein at the last minute and he features in our “The Ready Rookies” market where you can root for the three rookie drivers to finish the race for 4.6. And finally, if a big price is what you seek, look no further than “The Outsiders” where you can back Grosjean, Perez and Sainz to all finish in the points for 5.1
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/2BDQ-CGPspc
