A LOOK AHEAD TO THE F1 SEASON The 2017 Formula 1 season is just around the corner and motorsport fans eyes will be trained on Circuit de Catalunya, Barcelona for the pre-season testing sessions taking place between February 27th – March 2nd and March 7th-10th. This will be a great opportunity to see which teams have embraced the change in regulations most effectively and who can gain an edge as a result.
As with any formula 1 season, big jumps or drops in performance are relatively rare, but a consistent shuffle of the midfield, and perhaps the leaders, is always a compelling feature. A keen eye at this point in the season can look to make some savvy predictions throughout the season! In this post we will take a look at key teams that seem poised to improve their standings this year.
Red Bull Racing
A lot of people see Red Bull as the chief contenders to Mercedes dominance over the last three years. Not only have they been consistently close (or at least, the closest) to the championship winners all season, they also have a well-regarded and sought after chief technical officer in Adrian Newey. His strength in manipulating aerodynamics could be a defining factor for the team this year, with a greater emphasis on aero in the regulation changes.
Despite excellence in design, RBR have recently suffered from engine power deficits due to the Renault power unit that struggled relative to the field. Look at the speed traps on the start/finish straight during testing to see if Renault have pulled within 3% of Mercedes, a figure which team principle Christian Horner reckons is necessary for RBR compete in the championship. Also, the sector times for the downforce intensive first and third sectors of Catalunya should indicate if Red Bull and Adrian Newey have nailed the change in regulations.
Renault Sport
During the 2016 season, this was the team we particularly fancied to make big leaps forward for this year. Despite only having one year under their belt in their current iteration, they have a long history in the sport, having won two constructors championships and two drivers championships as well as nine more constructor championships as an engine supplier. As a works team with a large budget, they clearly have the technical and financial capabilities to move forward significantly. Nico Hulkenberg is one man who shares our optimism, opting to leave the improving team of Force India in favour of the works team.
However, team principle Frédéric Vasseur’s resignation in early January is a very troubling sign. Though those close to the problem have remained tight lipped, it appears there was friction in the management of the team, with Vasseur being left without the power to effect much change. This may suggest a stilted development path pre-season but we remain cautiously optimistic of seeing Renault net some good points finishes throughout the year.
McClaren Honda
On the surface, Mclaren does not seem like a promising team this year, given their recent results. One has to go back to the seventies to find a period as stark for the team. Even in 2008 when Lewis Hamilton won his first championship for them, Ferrari managed to pip them in the constructors’ championship making it such that Mclaren haven’t won a constructors championship since ’98. With that said, the low water mark they set in 2015 finishing 2nd last can be at least partially attributed to Hondas teething problems, returning as an engine supplier for the first time since 2008. This year is a great opportunity for Honda to make a leap forward given the loosening of engine development rules, with the team planning on imitating the effective Mercedes design of a split turbine and compressor. This could allow big gains in engine power and with a driver of the quality of Fernando Alonso behind the wheel, Mclaren could be a great bet for some surprise podium finishes throughout the season.
Although it’s hard to talk about Mercedes in the context of improving this year, I think Valtteri Bottas, Nico Rosberg’s replacement, is worth an honorary mention. His cool Finnish demeanour (very reminiscent of Kimi Raikkonen) should give him a virtual immunity to Hamilton’s mind games and he consistently and significantly beat Felipe Massa during their time at Williams. While mounting a challenge against Hamilton in his first year is a huge ask, the regulation change will help negate the advantage the reigning champion has in terms of knowing the car and setup and may allow Bottas to come into his own. Currently at a price of 6.8 in the outright on the exchange, this bet is a steal.
While testing is no definitive measure of where the teams stand after the break, in our experience it does show two things in particular: The teams that have poor reliability and the teams that are comfortable with their package and thus run lots of long runs. Expect to see the latter from Mercedes, who will merely be tweaking their already powerful engine while a team like Mclaren will be testing big overhauls to theirs.
